TDN · 2026-09-29

Chart replay. Equibase tells what happened. Card review tells what we did. Overlay stays frozen.

chart missingCard →

Chart missing. This card is in the results queue until an Equibase standard chart PDF is imported. No scrape.

R1no official finishRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

No footnotes in this official chart yet.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner — · close —

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet: no PLAY
Price model: — — No card review. Sheet and overlay were not snapped.
Book: none

4. What we keep

Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
(none on this official chart)

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY #1 BLUE NOMORE · min 4-1 · WIN — at 4-1 ML the 2nd-off cycle and fig jump are priced; if board compresses below 3-1, pass · SHAPE Lone speed (#2 PARTY POOPER) with fading route profile; presser/stalker bias at TDN (50% wins); inside rail favors posts 1–3 · CHALK #4 THATS THE WAY · short (ML 1.6) · solid class fit and top figs but route-closer style needs pace meltdown that is not guaranteed; usable but priced out as a ticket

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet none · price model none · no review line — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.

R2no official finishRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

No footnotes in this official chart yet.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner — · close —

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet: no PLAY
Price model: — — No card review. Sheet and overlay were not snapped.
Book: none

4. What we keep

Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
(none on this official chart)

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS — #3 is not a chalk but carries no overlay flag and ML 4 is not a price; #5 edge is too thin at ML 3.5; no non-chalk horse with a path clears a minimum odds threshold · SHAPE Two-speed duel (#8 vs #1) · inside rail bias · speed gets punished · presser/stalkers favored · post 8 zero wins in 60-day sample · CHALK #8 TYSONS LIL STAR · opposable · top fig but outside post kills it in a rail-bias sprint with a duel waiting

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet none · price model none · no review line — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.

R3no official finishRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

No footnotes in this official chart yet.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner — · close —

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet: no PLAY
Price model: — — No card review. Sheet and overlay were not snapped.
Book: none

4. What we keep

Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
(none on this official chart)

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Lone speed (#6 SPECIAL COLLETTE) from post 6 with a field of closers behind; inside-rail bias favors posts 1–3 but no speed sits there; closers need a melt that may not come · CHALK #5 VICTORIA COMMAND (ML 1.2) and #3 SEYVAL BLANC (ML 2.5) · both chalk · VICTORIA COMMAND is a massive tag drop (50k→7.5k) with cratering figs and no overlay; SEYVAL BLANC has the model edge and stacked ready flags but is chalk at 2.5 and ineligible for PLAY

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet none · price model none · no review line — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.

R4no official finishRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

No footnotes in this official chart yet.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner — · close —

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet: no PLAY
Price model: — — No card review. Sheet and overlay were not snapped.
Book: none

4. What we keep

Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
(none on this official chart)

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS — only overlay is the chalk; no non-chalk horse presents an actionable price · SHAPE Two-EP duel (#4 vs #5) projects honest-to-fast fractions; presser/stalker bias (50% of TDN D winners) sets up #1 and #2, but both carry weak figs and no overlay · CHALK #4 LITTLE SHANCE and #3 SPECTACULAR DORO — both chalk; #4 is solid on class drop + top fig + win last, opposable only if the duel materializes and it can't sustain; #3 is a closer with rising figs but no overlay and a 1320y trip most recently

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet none · price model none · no review line — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.

R5no official finishRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

No footnotes in this official chart yet.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner — · close —

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet: no PLAY
Price model: — — No card review. Sheet and overlay were not snapped.
Book: none

4. What we keep

Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
(none on this official chart)

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Wall of early speed (#1 #6 #5 #7) → honest duel likely; inside rail + presser-stalker bias; moderate-high volatility · CHALK #3 NUBLADA (2-1) · solid · last fig 80 "much best," class fits, post 3 on a rail-biased track, fig cycle rising; shape favors her

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet none · price model none · no review line — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.

R6no official finishRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

No footnotes in this official chart yet.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner — · close —

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet: no PLAY
Price model: — — No card review. Sheet and overlay were not snapped.
Book: none

4. What we keep

Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
(none on this official chart)

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Lone speed (#4 VERBIER EP) into stalkers/closers; speed bias + inside rail bias favor a front-runner that can clear, but VERBIER's last three lines all read "led, empty" — soft collapse risk in Scenario B if pressed · CHALK #2 CONCEALED CARRY (1.2) and #5 LATIN SPICE (2.5) are co-chalk; CONCEALED CARRY is short/fade (zForm -2.21, stopped last, new barn with poor shipper ROI); LATIN SPICE is usable-but-short (rising figs, top fig in field, but ML 2.5 leaves no price)

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet none · price model none · no review line — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.

R7no official finishRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

No footnotes in this official chart yet.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner — · close —

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet: no PLAY
Price model: — — No card review. Sheet and overlay were not snapped.
Book: none

4. What we keep

Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
(none on this official chart)

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Wall of five EP types guarantees a pace duel; stalkers #4 BLAZING TONY and #3 KICKSTART inherit in A/B/C — but #6 OLLIES FOLLY's class edge and prior 88 fig keep it the likeliest individual winner despite the speed-war shape; chalk is usable but short · CHALK #6 OLLIES FOLLY · usable but short · two sprint wins at TDN, 88 fig on Aug 19, now stepping into first ALW off a claim ladder; model edge exists (0.029) but chalk status kills it as a play

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet none · price model none · no review line — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.

R8no official finishRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

No footnotes in this official chart yet.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner — · close —

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet: no PLAY
Price model: — — No card review. Sheet and overlay were not snapped.
Book: none

4. What we keep

Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
(none on this official chart)

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Duel risk #6 E vs #4 EP · pressure high · inside rail / speed bias favors posts 1-3 · stalkers #3/#7 best placed to benefit · CHALK #3 ROLLIN FOR REAL (2-ML) · solid — top fig in the field, post 3 inside bias, stalker style fits A/B scenario, class drop from MSW is real; short is the problem, not the horse

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet none · price model none · no review line — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.