TDN R6 · 2026-09-29
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find TDN R6 · 2026-09-29 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #4 VERBIER
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#4VERBIEREP
- C2#6VLADISLAVC
- C3#5LATIN SPICES
- C4#2CONCEALED CARRYP
- C5#1AULD LANGE SYNES
- C6#3GALILEEC
#4 VERBIER controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #4 VERBIER · hurts #6 VLADISLAV, #5 LATIN SPICE, #1 AULD LANGE SYNE, #3 GALILEE
Someone presses #4 VERBIER. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #2 CONCEALED CARRY, #5 LATIN SPICE, #1 AULD LANGE SYNE · hurts #4 VERBIER
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 VLADISLAV, #5 LATIN SPICE, #1 AULD LANGE SYNE, #3 GALILEE).
Helps #6 VLADISLAV, #5 LATIN SPICE, #1 AULD LANGE SYNE, #3 GALILEE · hurts #4 VERBIER
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CONCEALED CARRYBARBARAN ERIK | 1.2 | P | Led lastBarn changeSame trip2026-07-07 PRX 4f 47.80 B MT gd 3/20; 2026-04-17 PRX 5f 61.60 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: change vs NESS JAMIE | Clm5000b → Clm 5000n1y | CCAMAQUE MARCO | Favorite |
| 5 | LATIN SPICEBRACHO JOSE A | 2.5 | S | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-08-27 DEL 4f 48.60 B MT ft 4/27; 2026-05-30 DEL 4f 50.00 B MT ft 22/66 · barn: same as last | Clm5000b → Clm 5000n1y | POOLE JEFFREY A | Favorite |
| 6 | VLADISLAVSKERRETT JEFFERSON | 3.5 | C | Hidden paceTop last paceSame trip2026-04-26 TDN 3f 36.60 B MT wf 4/15; 2026-03-09 MVR 4f 50.80 B MT gd 21/29 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2y → Clm 5000n1y | SKERRETT JEFFREY | field |
| 4 | VERBIERSALAZAR BECERRA FERNANDO | 5.0 | EP | Same trip2026-06-20 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT ft 16/30; 2026-06-11 TDN 4f 50.40 B MT ft 20/32 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n1y → Clm 5000n1y | ZIELINSKI RICHARD | field |
| 1 | AULD LANGE SYNEANDERSON MCKENNA | 15.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-28 TDN 3f 39.00 B MT ft 3/4; 2026-04-27 TDN 4f 51.60 B MT ft 40/45 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n1y → Clm 5000n1y | SONDEJ AMY | field |
| 3 | GALILEEBATISTA LUIS ALBERTO | 15.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-08 TDN 3f 38.20 B MT ft 4/11; 2026-06-16 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT ft 8/24 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n1y → Clm 5000n1y | VLAUN MANUEL | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACETDN R6 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1760y · Clm 5000n1y
- SHAPELone speed (#4 VERBIER EP) into stalkers/closers; speed bias + inside rail bias favor a front-runner that can clear, but VERBIER's last three lines all read "led, empty" — soft collapse risk in Scenario B if pressed
- CHALKFavorite#2 CONCEALED CARRY (1.2) and #5 LATIN SPICE (2.5) are co-chalk; CONCEALED CARRY is short/fade (zForm -2.21, stopped last, new barn with poor shipper ROI); LATIN SPICE is usable-but-short (rising figs, top fig in field, but ML 2.5 leaves no price)
- LEANWinner call#5 LATIN SPICE — top last fig (75), rising cycle (+9 over prior), stalker style with a path in both A and B
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse reaches 2+ flags with a price path)
- PRICEno price (zero non-chalk overlays; only overlay flag is chalk #5 LATIN SPICE)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLVERBIER clears uncontested and wire-to-wires at a slow honest pace; rail bias cancels any outside closer; CONCEALED CARRY clicks with new barn
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant day-of, rider changes not on PP lines
Why
Dirt route, Clm 5000n1y, field of six at TDN — moderate volatility for a thin, class-locked group with no primed price horse to target. The pace map projects #4 VERBIER as lone speed into a stalker/closer field, but the horse's consistent pattern of pressing, leading, then emptying makes it opposable; the two chalk horses (#2 CONCEALED CARRY, #5 LATIN SPICE) are both short ML, with LATIN SPICE carrying the top last fig (75) and a rising-figs signal but graded chalk. No non-chalk horse clears the overlay threshold — model edge is flat or negative across the board, and the ingested sheet calls PASS.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CONCEALED CARRY | 1.2 | 36.2% | 33.9% | -2.4% | -0.10 | P | favoriteLed lastBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 5 | LATIN SPICE | 2.5 | 22.8% | 25.4% | +2.6% | 0.60 | S | favoriteRising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 6 | VLADISLAV | 3.5 | 17.7% | 19.1% | +1.4% | 0.48 | C | Hidden paceTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 4 | VERBIER | 5.0 | 13.3% | 13.3% | +0.0% | 0.18 | EP | Same trip | — |
| 1 | AULD LANGE SYNE | 15.0 | 5.0% | 4.4% | -0.5% | -0.29 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 3 | GALILEE | 15.0 | 5.0% | 3.8% | -1.1% | -0.87 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |