The validation gate
Nothing ships until it beats the close.
The harness walk-forwards the model out of sample. If holdout ROI can't clear zero, live stays locked and every bet stays paper. That's the product — not a promise.
Current verdict
INCONCLUSIVEPaper onlyClosing-line value
13.7%
162 settled races
Holdout WIN ROI
-7.4%
North Star — still negative
Composite AUC
62%
better than a coin, worse than the crowd
ROI gate
LOCKED
Significant CLV skill exists, but pari-mutuel WIN ROI is deeply negative. Paper mode only until holdout ROI CI clears 0.
Significant CLV skill exists, but pari-mutuel WIN ROI is deeply negative. Paper mode only until holdout ROI CI clears 0.
Start free on paper