TDN R4 · 2026-09-29
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find TDN R4 · 2026-09-29 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#4 vs #5)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#4LITTLE SHANCEEP
- C2#5OL NELSONEP
- C3#1BALKI BARTOKOMOUSP
- C4#2SEEKING FREEDOMS
- C5#3SPECTACULAR DOROC
- C6#6TAKE DICTATIONC
- C7#7MOBIL MISSIONC
Honest pace among #4 LITTLE SHANCE and #5 OL NELSON. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #1 BALKI BARTOKOMOUS, #2 SEEKING FREEDOM · hurts #4 LITTLE SHANCE, #5 OL NELSON
Pressure: #4 LITTLE SHANCE and #5 OL NELSON hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #1 BALKI BARTOKOMOUS, #2 SEEKING FREEDOM · hurts #4 LITTLE SHANCE, #5 OL NELSON
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 SEEKING FREEDOM, #3 SPECTACULAR DORO, #6 TAKE DICTATION, #7 MOBIL MISSION).
Helps #2 SEEKING FREEDOM, #3 SPECTACULAR DORO, #6 TAKE DICTATION, #7 MOBIL MISSION · hurts #4 LITTLE SHANCE, #5 OL NELSON
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | LITTLE SHANCEFELICIANO R | 1.8 | EP | Rising figsTag dropTop last figSame trip2026-09-01 TDN 5f 62.40 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-05-08 MNR 3f 37.00 B MT ft 1/3 · barn: same as last | sClm12500n2l → Clm 7500n3l | CRUMLEY JEVON | Favorite |
| 3 | SPECTACULAR DOROSALAZAR BECERRA FERNANDO | 1.6 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-06-05 TDN 4f 48.60 B MT ft 2/11; 2026-05-27 TDN 4f 49.60 B MT ft 9/17 · barn: same as last | sClm7500n3l → Clm 7500n3l | WOLOCHUK DAVID | Favorite |
| 7 | MOBIL MISSIONSIMPSON JASON | 4.0 | C | Barn changeSame trip2026-09-24 TDN 3f 39.40 B MT ft 11/16; 2026-04-15 TDN 4f 54.20 B MT ft 17/18 · barn: change vs RADOSEVICH JEFF | sClm7500n3lc → Clm 7500n3l | JOHNSON GARY L | field |
| 1 | BALKI BARTOKOMOUSBARBARAN ERIK | 6.0 | P | Same trip2025-12-04 MVR 5f 63.40 B MT gd 3/7; 2025-10-15 TDN 5f 63.80 B MT ft 5/5 · barn: same as last | sClm7500n3l → Clm 7500n3l | JUAREZ-MENDOZA REY | field |
| 5 | OL NELSONSKERRETT JEFFERSON | 15.0 | EP | Led lastTop last paceSame trip2026-05-28 PID 4f 47.80 B MT ft 7/26; 2026-04-27 FL 4f 49.00 B MT ft 26/52 · barn: same as last | sClm7500n3l → Clm 7500n3l | GENOVESE RICHARD L | field |
| 6 | TAKE DICTATIONTAPARA BRANDON | 20.0 | C | Trouble lastSame trip2026-09-21 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT ft 13/21; 2026-05-23 TDN 3f 38.20 B MT sy 3/5 · barn: same as last | sClm7500n3l → Clm 7500n3l | FLORES ISRAEL | field |
| 2 | SEEKING FREEDOMHALDAR DAVID J | 20.0 | S | Same trip2026-04-13 TDN 4f 52.20 B MT ft 16/17; 2026-03-25 MVR 4f 49.60 B MT ft 15/19 · barn: same as last | sClm7500n3l → Clm 7500n3l | FAULKNER RODNEY C | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACETDN R4 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1210y · Clm 7500n3l
- SHAPETwo-EP duel (#4 vs #5) projects honest-to-fast fractions; presser/stalker bias (50% of TDN D winners) sets up #1 and #2, but both carry weak figs and no overlay
- CHALKFavorite#4 LITTLE SHANCE and #3 SPECTACULAR DORO — both chalk; #4 is solid on class drop + top fig + win last, opposable only if the duel materializes and it can't sustain; #3 is a closer with rising figs but no overlay and a 1320y trip most recently
- LEANWinner call#4 LITTLE SHANCE · top fig (70), real class drop (sClm12500n2l → Clm 7500n3l), won last at this exact trip, pace path in A
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse clears 2+ ready flags with an overlay)
- PRICEnone
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — only overlay is the chalk; no non-chalk horse presents an actionable price
- KILLDuel fully materializes and #4 empties in the lane the way it did in Aug-July; #3 runs a clean trip from post 3 and its closing style catches a soft pace
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/surface condition, rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint at TDN, Clm 7500n3l, seven horses, moderate-to-high volatility given a clear two-EP duel shaping up. Both chalks (#4 LITTLE SHANCE at ML 1.8 and #3 SPECTACULAR DORO at ML 1.6) sit at short prices with the pace map working against the speed duo in scenarios B and C, though #4 holds the top fig in the field (70) off a class drop and a win last out. No horse clears the primed threshold with a non-chalk overlay — the sheet produced no price overlays.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | LITTLE SHANCE | 1.8 | 28.7% | 35.2% | +6.5% | 1.34 | EP | favoriteRising figsTag dropTop last figSame trip | — |
| 3 | SPECTACULAR DORO | 1.6 | 31.0% | 32.2% | +1.2% | 0.68 | C | favoriteRising figsSame trip | — |
| 7 | MOBIL MISSION | 4.0 | 16.1% | 12.0% | -4.1% | -0.66 | C | Barn changeSame trip | — |
| 1 | BALKI BARTOKOMOUS | 6.0 | 11.5% | 11.0% | -0.5% | 0.33 | P | Same trip | — |
| 5 | OL NELSON | 15.0 | 5.0% | 3.9% | -1.1% | -0.48 | EP | Led lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 6 | TAKE DICTATION | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.0% | -0.8% | -0.40 | C | Trouble lastSame trip | — |
| 2 | SEEKING FREEDOM | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.7% | -1.1% | -0.81 | S | Same trip | — |