What this card taught
- Next RaceDay brief reads PLAY MEMORY and CARD REVIEW from earlier dates only. Same-day races do not leak.
- 3 floor misses — next sheet still tags FLOOR. A board shorter than the floor is a pass, not a blown horse.
- 2 PLAY outs stay on the memory line. That is a notice, not a weight.
- 3 board-inside-floor. Next sheet still writes a min. Shorter than that number is a pass.
- 1 chalk-not-opposable. Fade only when shape still opposes after the chart.
- 4 misses had no tote stamp. Floor never checked live.
Scanner and overlay still read the frozen production file. Last test of the price model and residual stay captions.
| R | Winner | PLAY | Miss | Why | Overlay then | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | #1 BRAVENESS 2.1-1 | Floor #1 BRAVENESS · min 3-1 · WIN · if board drifts to 5-2 or shorter, PASS | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (3-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | WATCH #1 BRAVENESS · +2.8% | Floor miss 2026-09-27 GP R1 floor_miss · winner #1 BRAVENESS @ 2.1 · overlay #1 BRAVENESS edge 0.028 · PLAY floor #1 |
| R2 | #8 MEGAPLUMB 3.1-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-27 GP R2 pass_ok · winner #8 MEGAPLUMB @ 3.1 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R3 | #3 IMPERIA BLUE 0.3-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-27 GP R3 pass_ok · winner #3 IMPERIA BLUE @ 0.3 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R4 | #6 KIP THE DISTANCE 10.8-1 | Pass PASS · #1 GIRVIN STAR is the only non-chalk overlay and 3-1 lone speed that flattened last out in a weaker spot does not clear the price bar; no primed horse has a positive edge; no ticket | Pass held | — | WATCH #1 GIRVIN STAR · +2.2% | Overlay miss 2026-09-27 GP R4 overlay_miss · winner #6 KIP THE DISTANCE @ 10.8 · overlay #1 GIRVIN STAR edge 0.022 · PLAY pass |
| R5 | #6 COME ON TEESHA 11.0-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-27 GP R5 pass_ok · winner #6 COME ON TEESHA @ 11 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R6 | #2 DAVID PEPPERMAN 9.0-1 | Floor #4 PARDO · win · minimum 4-1 (pass if shorter at the window) | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (4-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | BET #4 PARDO · +4.4% | Floor miss 2026-09-27 GP R6 floor_miss · winner #2 DAVID PEPPERMAN @ 9 · overlay #4 PARDO edge 0.044 · PLAY floor #4 |
| R7 | #5 WAR WARRIOR 9.0-1 | Floor #1 GOLD FOOT · win · minimum 3-1 (at shorter, PASS) — class drop from allowance is a send, not a dump; the barn ROI is poor on turf so fade if price slips | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (3-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | WATCH #1 GOLD FOOT · +2.5% | Floor miss 2026-09-27 GP R7 floor_miss · winner #5 WAR WARRIOR @ 9 · overlay #1 GOLD FOOT edge 0.025 · PLAY floor #1 |
| R8 | #3 ARABIA WILD 4.1-1 | Out #7 EL OREJON · win · minimum 3-1 (ML is exactly 3; need the board to hold or go slightly over — at 5-2 or shorter, pass) | PLAY out | Chalk was not opposable no tote Sheet called chalk #3 fade; chalk won. Fade needs a shape reason that holds. | BET #2 NICE TRY RILEY · +4.5% | Overlay miss 2026-09-27 GP R8 overlay_miss · winner #3 ARABIA WILD @ 4.1 · overlay #2 NICE TRY RILEY edge 0.045 · PLAY out #7 |
| R9 | #9 NICKEL C 5.3-1 | Out #1 WIN N JUICE · 8-1 minimum · WIN · at 5-1 or shorter, pass | PLAY out | PLAY out PLAY finished out of the money. No sharper why on the stored sheet. | WATCH #1 WIN N JUICE · +2.0% | Overlay miss 2026-09-27 GP R9 overlay_miss · winner #9 NICKEL C @ 5.3 · overlay #1 WIN N JUICE edge 0.020 · PLAY out #1 |
Built 2026-09-28 03:38Z · promotionAuthority false · overlay edge units are model−market (2.0% threshold then).