GP R9 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#3 vs #8)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3AEGON TARGARYENEP
- C2#1WIN N JUICEP
- C3#8SOUPER ATTENTIVEEP
- C4#9NICKEL CP
- C5#5WON FOR LOUS
- C6#4PROSTS
- C7#2MY VOODOO DOLLC
- C8#7JUSTIN SMILESC
- C9#6GUS SWAYZEP
Honest pace among #3 AEGON TARGARYEN and #8 SOUPER ATTENTIVE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #1 WIN N JUICE, #9 NICKEL C, #6 GUS SWAYZE, #5 WON FOR LOU, #4 PROST · hurts #3 AEGON TARGARYEN, #8 SOUPER ATTENTIVE
Pressure: #3 AEGON TARGARYEN and #8 SOUPER ATTENTIVE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #1 WIN N JUICE, #9 NICKEL C, #6 GUS SWAYZE, #5 WON FOR LOU, #4 PROST · hurts #3 AEGON TARGARYEN, #8 SOUPER ATTENTIVE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 WON FOR LOU, #4 PROST, #2 MY VOODOO DOLL, #7 JUSTIN SMILES).
Helps #5 WON FOR LOU, #4 PROST, #2 MY VOODOO DOLL, #7 JUSTIN SMILES · hurts #3 AEGON TARGARYEN, #8 SOUPER ATTENTIVE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | WON FOR LOUREYES LEONEL | 2.5 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffHidden paceSharp workSame trip2026-09-20 PMM 5f 61.60 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-09-13 PMM 4f 46.60 B MT ft bullet 1/28 · barn: same as last | BearsDenB100k → Alw 52000n1x | D'ANGELO JOSE FRANCISCO | Favorite |
| 9 | NICKEL CVASQUEZ MIGUEL ANGEL | 3.5 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-20 GP 4f 49.00 B MT gd 21/38; 2026-09-12 GP 5f 62.20 B MT ft 9/10 · barn: same as last | OC35000 → Alw 52000n1x | FAWKES DAVID | field |
| 8 | SOUPER ATTENTIVELEON SONNY | 4.5 | EP | Trouble lastSame trip2026-09-20 PMM 4f 49.40 B MT ft 17/33; 2026-09-05 CNL 4f 48.00 B MT ft 3/15 · barn: same as last | Alw72000n1x → Alw 52000n1x | CASSE MARK | field |
| 2 | MY VOODOO DOLLHUSBANDS MICAH J | 6.0 | C | Barn change2026-09-03 PMM 4f 47.40 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-08-21 PMM 5f 62.40 B D T fm 1/1 · barn: change vs CASSE MARK | sOC20000n1x → Alw 52000n1x | TOMLINSON NICHOLAS J | field |
| 1 | WIN N JUICEHUGHES RASHEED | 8.0 | P | Top last paceSame trip2026-09-18 PMM 4f 49.40 B MT ft 18/24; 2026-08-22 PMM 4f 51.80 B MT ft 30/30 · barn: same as last | BearsDenB100k → Alw 52000n1x | TOMLINSON NICHOLAS J | overlay |
| 7 | JUSTIN SMILESHERRERA DIEGO A | 8.0 | C | Top last figSame trip2026-07-27 GP 4f 48.40 B MT ft 4/14; 2026-07-03 GP 4f 53.80 B MT ft 11/11 · barn: same as last | OC35000 → Alw 52000n1x | ORSENO JOSEPH F | field |
| 4 | PROSTTORRES YOLBER | 10.0 | S | Same trip2026-09-05 PMM 4f 48.00 B MT ft 2/34; 2026-08-09 PMM 4f 51.80 B MT ft 40/42 · barn: same as last | sAlw52000n1x → Alw 52000n1x | D'ANGELO JOSE FRANCISCO | field |
| 3 | AEGON TARGARYENCAMACHO SAMY | 12.0 | EP | Rising figs2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip2026-08-31 GP 4f 51.20 B MT ft 55/62; 2026-08-16 GP 4f 48.00 B MT ft 7/44 · barn: same as last | sAlw52000n1x → Alw 52000n1x | BENNETT GERALD S | primed |
| 6 | GUS SWAYZEPENA PEDRO | 15.0 | P | Rising figsTrouble lastBarn change2026-08-17 GP 3f 39.20 B MT ft 35/36; 2026-07-04 GP 4f 47.40 B MT ft bullet 1/55 · barn: change vs MARAGH COLLIN | Clm17500bc → Alw 52000n1x | DAVID CARLOS A | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEGP R9 · 2026-09-27 · Turf 1760y · Alw 52000n1x
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#3 vs #8 on the front) into honest-to-fast fractions; stalkers and pressers off the pace benefit in A and B
- CHALKFavorite#5 WON FOR LOU · short · model edge 0.001, essentially even money with the market; solid horse but no price
- LEANWinner call#5 WON FOR LOU · best cycle (LP 93 hidden on dirt, rising figs, 2nd off layoff), pace shape suits a stalker once the duel burns the speed
- PRIMED#3 AEGON TARGARYEN (rising figs +8, 2nd off layoff, led last, route match — but EP style takes the worst of a duel); #6 GUS SWAYZE (rising figs +32, trouble last, barn change — but Clm17500 → Alw52000 is a severe class hike, zPace -2.61 is a red flag)
- PRICE#1 WIN N JUICE · 8 ML · edge 0.020 · only non-chalk overlay on the sheet
- PLAYPrice ticket#1 WIN N JUICE · 8-1 minimum · WIN · at 5-1 or shorter, pass
- KILLPace doesn't materialize (lone speed scenario favors chalk's stalking trip over #1's single-run style); turf comes off (surface switch flips the entire shape); #1 draws dead post 1 and gets buried on the rail in traffic through two turns
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/going report (firm vs soft changes the late-kick calculus materially), rider changes
Why
Turf route at GP in an n1x allowance — moderate-to-high volatility with a class-diverse nine-horse field and no live tote. Two EP types (#3 AEGON TARGARYEN, #8 SOUPER ATTENTIVE) project to duel on the front end, which maps cleanly to the stalker/presser tier and benefits chalk #5 WON FOR LOU (2.5 ML, S style, LP 93 last but on dirt and marked not an overlay at edge 0.001). #1 WIN N JUICE is the lone model overlay (edge 0.020, 8 ML, P style) with the top LP in the field (100 last), a route-to-route trip match, and a pace shape in A and B that sets up a late presser running into a pace duel — path is real. ---
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | WON FOR LOU | 2.5 | 22.2% | 22.3% | +0.1% | 0.05 | S | favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffHidden paceSharp workSame trip | 7 |
| 9 | NICKEL C | 3.5 | 17.3% | 16.2% | -1.1% | -0.22 | P | Rising figsSame trip | WIN |
| 8 | SOUPER ATTENTIVE | 4.5 | 14.1% | 14.0% | -0.1% | -0.01 | EP | Trouble lastSame trip | 2 |
| 2 | MY VOODOO DOLL | 6.0 | 11.1% | 10.8% | -0.4% | -0.10 | C | Barn change | 9 |
| 1 | WIN N JUICE | 8.0 | 8.6% | 10.7% | +2.0% | 0.87 | P | Top last paceSame trip | 4 |
| 7 | JUSTIN SMILES | 8.0 | 8.6% | 9.9% | +1.3% | 0.60 | C | Top last figSame trip | 5 |
| 4 | PROST | 10.0 | 7.1% | 6.6% | -0.5% | -0.23 | S | Same trip | 6 |
| 3 | AEGON TARGARYEN | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.0% | -1.0% | -0.71 | EP | Rising figs2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip | 3 |
| 6 | GUS SWAYZE | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.5% | -0.3% | -0.25 | P | Rising figsTrouble lastBarn change | 8 |