What this card taught
- Next RaceDay brief reads PLAY MEMORY and CARD REVIEW from earlier dates only. Same-day races do not leak.
Scanner and overlay still read the frozen production file. Last test of the price model and residual stay captions.
| R | Winner | PLAY | Miss | Why | Overlay then | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | #1 PRINCESSONAMISSION 0.7-1 | Pass PASS — #3's edge (0.023) is real but minor, and she has not shown a turf line in the recent cycle; no horse combines a clean path, turf form, and a price worth standing behind | Pass held | — | WATCH #3 FREDERICKAS ROSE · +2.3% | Overlay miss 2026-09-14 FE R1 overlay_miss · winner #1 PRINCESSONAMISSION @ 0.65 · overlay #3 FREDERICKAS ROSE edge 0.023 · PLAY pass |
| R2 | #2 BUFF BAY 1.4-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 FE R2 pass_ok · winner #2 BUFF BAY @ 1.35 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R3 | #1 TIERNAN 1.3-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 FE R3 pass_ok · winner #1 TIERNAN @ 1.3 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R4 | #8 TANIST 3.0-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 FE R4 pass_ok · winner #8 TANIST @ 3.05 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R5 | #6 BACK TO REALITY 0.3-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 FE R5 pass_ok · winner #6 BACK TO REALITY @ 0.35 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R6 | #2 PALMILLAS BET 5.5-1 | Pass PASS — #6 is the lone overlay but one ready flag (3rd-start-cycle only), a collapsing last line ("hustled early; empty"), negative zForm, outside post against a hard inside bias, and edge of 0.032 is thin; no minimum odds exist where this horse is a confident win bet | Pass held | — | BET #6 HOBBIE CLASS · +3.2% | Overlay miss 2026-09-14 FE R6 overlay_miss · winner #2 PALMILLAS BET @ 5.55 · overlay #6 HOBBIE CLASS edge 0.032 · PLAY pass |
| R7 | #3 BEAUTIFUL SKY 1.6-1 | Pass PASS — #9 has model edge but zero ready flags, a negative zForm, an extreme outside post in a rail-bias race, and 84 days off dirt into turf; the price is right but the path and cycle are not convincing enough to override the concerns | Pass held | — | BET #9 CLARAYOUTHEBEST · +3.6% | Overlay miss 2026-09-14 FE R7 overlay_miss · winner #3 BEAUTIFUL SKY @ 1.65 · overlay #9 CLARAYOUTHEBEST edge 0.036 · PLAY pass |
Built 2026-09-16 02:21Z · promotionAuthority false · overlay edge units are model−market (2.0% threshold then).