FE · 2026-09-14
Chart replay. Equibase tells what happened. Card review tells what we did. Overlay stays frozen.
Official chart Equibase · parser 1.2.0 · checksum b12088fffa09c2bd · us_mutuel_to_one
R1#1 Princessonamission · 0.65-1play passWATCHRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 24.81 · 48.47 · 1:12.14 · Final 1:25.30
Splits (23:66) (23:67) (13:16)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princessonamission | 2 · 11/2 · 11/2 · 13 · 16 · 1/2 |
| 2 | Free Charging | 1 · 21/2 · 21/2 · 23 · 26 · 1/2 |
| 4 | La Ronde | 4 · 63 · 32 · 34 · 36 · 3/4 |
| 8 | She's the Rage | 7 · 75 · 63 · 1/2 · 44 · 48 · 1/4 |
| 5 | Silverdart | 5 · 42 · 53 · 55 · 510 · 1/4 |
| 3 | Fredericka's Rose | 3 · 31 · 42 · 1/2 · 65 · 1/2 · 610 · 3/4 |
| 7 | Japonka | 6 · 52 · 1/2 · 76 · 1/2 · 710 · 1/2 · 721 · 3/4 |
PRINCESSONAMISSION showed speed from the inside, took command on the far turn and was much the best. FREE CHARGING was away alertly, a factor on the far turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch held place. LA RONDE was in touch and roused from the inside on the far turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch needed more. SHE'S THE RAGE was unhurried early and raced evenly on the far turn but was no real threat. SILVERDART was in mid pack and hustled along on the far turn but from the five path at the top of the stretch had no rally. FREDERICKA'S ROSE was in range but chased on the far turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch had no impact. JAPONKA was off the pace and showed little in a dull effort.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #1 Princessonamission · close 0.65-1
- PRINCESSONAMISSION showed speed from the inside, took command on the far turn and was much the best.
- FREE CHARGING was away alertly, a factor on the far turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch held place.
- LA RONDE was in touch and roused from the inside on the far turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch needed more.
- SHE'S THE RAGE was unhurried early and raced evenly on the far turn but was no real threat.
- SILVERDART was in mid pack and hustled along on the far turn but from the five path at the top of the stretch had no rally.
- FREDERICKA'S ROSE was in range but chased on the far turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch had no impact.
- JAPONKA was off the pace and showed little in a dull effort.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Princessonamission | 0.65-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | Free Charging | 17.7-1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | La Ronde | 6.15-1 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 8 | She's the Rage | 4.60-1 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | Silverdart | 9.80-1 | 10.25 |
| 6 | 3 | Fredericka's Rose | 6.90-1 | 11 |
| 7 | 7 | Japonka | 45.0-1 | 21.75 |
| SCR | — | Uncarrick Teristic | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS — #3's edge (0.023) is real but minor, and she has not shown a turf line in the recent cycle; no horse combines a clean path, turf form, and a price worth standing behind · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- WATCH · #3 FREDERICKAS ROSE · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: PRINCESSONAMISSION showed speed from the inside, took command on the far turn and was much the best. FREE CHARGING was away alertly, a factor on the far turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch held place. LA RONDE was in touch and roused from the inside on the far turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch needed more. SHE'S THE RAGE was unhurried early and raced evenly on the far turn but was no real threat. SILVERDART was in mid pack and hustled along on the far turn but from the five path at the top of the stretch had no rally. FREDERICKA'S ROSE was in range but chased on the far turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch had no impact. JAPONKA was off the pace and showed little in a dull effort. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS — #3's edge (0.023) is real but minor, and she has not shown a turf line in the recent cycle; no horse combines a clean path, turf form, and a price worth standing behind · SHAPE No-pace field (all S/C), lone-speed vacuum, inside-bias track favors an E/EP that does not exist — slow crawl likely, chaos-style finish · CHALK #6 UNCARRICK TERISTIC · solid-but-short · class drop is real, two turf figs at this distance (62/66), but ML 2 with negative edge; pass CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model WATCH #3 FREDERICKAS ROSE · 2026-09-14 FE R1 overlay_miss · winner #1 PRINCESSONAMISSION @ 0.65 · overlay #3 FREDERICKAS ROSE edge 0.023 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R2#2 Buff Bay · 1.35-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 24.86 · 48.61 · 1:12.99 · 1:39.11 · Final 1:45.99
Splits (23:75) (24:38) (26:12) (6:88)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Buff Bay | 3 · 3Head · 21/2 · 12 · 13 · 1/2 · 18 |
| 4 | Super Serenade | 1 · 2Head · 42 · 44 · 1/2 · 34 · 28 |
| 1 | Sight to See | 5 · 1Head · 11/2 · 22 · 44 · 38 |
| 3 | Nightsaber (GB) | 2 · 43/4 · 31 · 1/2 · 32 · 23 · 1/2 · 48 · 1/4 |
| 5 | Powaqa | 4 · 52 · 3/4 · 54 · 1/2 · 55 · 1/2 · 56 · 1/2 · 517 · 1/2 |
BUFF BAY tracked the early leaders from the inside, had the lead on the far turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch drew clear. SUPER SERENADE was away alertly, roused on the far turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch was up for place. SIGHT TO SEE was hustled early and a factor on the far turn but from the three path at the top of the stretch had nothing left. NIGHTSABER (GB) was in touch and had a mild gain on the far turn but from the five path at the top of the stretch leveled off. POWAQA was off the pace and saved ground on the far turn but failed to fire.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #2 Buff Bay · close 1.35-1
- BUFF BAY tracked the early leaders from the inside, had the lead on the far turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch drew clear.
- SUPER SERENADE was away alertly, roused on the far turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch was up for place.
- SIGHT TO SEE was hustled early and a factor on the far turn but from the three path at the top of the stretch had nothing left.
- NIGHTSABER (GB) was in touch and had a mild gain on the far turn but from the five path at the top of the stretch leveled off.
- POWAQA was off the pace and saved ground on the far turn but failed to fire.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Buff Bay | 1.35-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 4 | Super Serenade | 5.60-1 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1 | Sight to See | 0.95-1 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3 | Nightsaber (GB) | 14.9-1 | 9.25 |
| 5 | 5 | Powaqa | 14.4-1 | 17.5 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: BUFF BAY tracked the early leaders from the inside, had the lead on the far turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch drew clear. SUPER SERENADE was away alertly, roused on the far turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch was up for place. SIGHT TO SEE was hustled early and a factor on the far turn but from the three path at the top of the stretch had nothing left. NIGHTSABER (GB) was in touch and had a mild gain on the far turn but from the five path at the top of the stretch leveled off. POWAQA was off the pace and saved ground on the far turn but failed to fire. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Lone-speed chalk (Buff Bay, P) with one EP presser (Super Serenade); inside/speed bias favors the chalk wire-to-wire; no pace duel likely · CHALK #2 Buff Bay (ML 1.8) and #4 Super Serenade (ML 2.5) — both chalk; Buff Bay solid, best fig, class drop, pace path; Super Serenade opposable (soft figs, stops late) CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 FE R2 pass_ok · winner #2 BUFF BAY @ 1.35 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R3#1 Tiernan · 1.30-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.18 · 44.68 · 56.82 · Final 1:03.19
Splits (22:50) (12:14) (6:37)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tiernan | 2 · 14 · 16 · 14 · 13 · 1/4 |
| 2 | Coherence | 3 · 44 · 1/2 · 26 · 24 · 23 · 1/4 |
| 3 | Sunday's Well | 5 · 34 · 1/2 · 36 · 35 · 39 |
| 4 | Bennys Jets | 4 · 24 · 46 · 1/4 · 45 · 413 |
| 5 | Conacher | 1 · 55 · 1/2 · 59 · 1/4 · 57 · 1/2 · 513 · 3/4 |
TIERNAN showed speed from the inside, had a clear lead on the turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch held sway. COHERENCE was in touch, moved up from the inside on the turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch was clearly second best. SUNDAY'S WELL was hustled early and was roused from between foes on the turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch finished evenly. BENNYS JETS stalked the early leader but chased on the turn and from the five path at the top of the stretch had no late kick. CONACHER settled off the pace, trailed the field on the turn and was not a factor.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #1 Tiernan · close 1.30-1
- TIERNAN showed speed from the inside, had a clear lead on the turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch held sway.
- COHERENCE was in touch, moved up from the inside on the turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch was clearly second best.
- SUNDAY'S WELL was hustled early and was roused from between foes on the turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch finished evenly.
- BENNYS JETS stalked the early leader but chased on the turn and from the five path at the top of the stretch had no late kick.
- CONACHER settled off the pace, trailed the field on the turn and was not a factor.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tiernan | 1.30-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | Coherence | 2.15-1 | 5.75 |
| 3 | 3 | Sunday's Well | 3.80-1 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | Bennys Jets | 10.6-1 | 0.75 |
| 5 | 5 | Conacher | 4.95-1 | 13.75 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: TIERNAN showed speed from the inside, had a clear lead on the turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch held sway. COHERENCE was in touch, moved up from the inside on the turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch was clearly second best. SUNDAY'S WELL was hustled early and was roused from between foes on the turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch finished evenly. BENNYS JETS stalked the early leader but chased on the turn and from the five path at the top of the stretch had no late kick. CONACHER settled off the pace, trailed the field on the turn and was not a factor. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Speed duel likely (E chalk on rail vs EP chalk post 4); inside/speed bias favors the front; stalkers and closers face a pace-honest trip with no meltdown guarantee · CHALK #1 TIERNAN (2.5) and #4 BENNYS JETS (2.0) — both chalk, duel each other; TIERNAN solid on class drop with high signal; BENNYS JETS rising figs but stepping up and negative edge CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 FE R3 pass_ok · winner #1 TIERNAN @ 1.3 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R4#8 Tanist · 3.05-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 24.19 · 47.49 · 1:13.04 · Final 1:26.25
Splits (23:30) (25:55) (13:21)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tanist | 4 · 53 · 42 · 1/2 · 31/2 · 12 |
| 3 | Pelee Island | 1 · 11 · 11/2 · 11/2 · 22 |
| 9 | Whiskytangodisco | 7 · 710 · 77 · 52 · 1/2 · 33 · 3/4 |
| 5 | Rose for Carrick | 2 · 21 · 21/2 · 21/2 · 44 |
| 6 | Precious Kid | 6 · 65 · 66 · 63 · 54 |
| 7 | My Emmy | 3 · 31 · 1/2 · 31 · 41 · 1/2 · 64 · 1/2 |
| 1 | Alnessa | 5 · 42 · 1/2 · 54 · 74 · 710 · 1/4 |
| 2 | Wild Houdini | 8 · 810 · 1/2 · 87 · 1/2 · 87 · 1/2 · 824 · 3/4 |
TANIST was unhurried early, moved up from the inside on the far turn and with a bid in mid stretch drew clear. PELEE ISLAND set the pace and had a slim lead on the far turn but from the three path at the top of the stretch was no match for the winner. WHISKYTANGODISCO was off slow, gained ground on the far turn and from the five path at the top of the stretch was up for show. ROSE FOR CARRICK stalked the early leader and forced the pace on the far turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch needed more. PRECIOUS KID was off the pace and hustled along on the far turn but from the eight path at the top of the stretch was no real threat. MY EMMY tracked the early leaders from the outside and was a factor on the far turn but from the seven path at the top of the stretch flattened out. ALNESSA was in mid pack early but lost ground on the far turn and was empty. WILD HOUDINI was off slow and showed nothing in a dull effort.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #8 Tanist · close 3.05-1
- TANIST was unhurried early, moved up from the inside on the far turn and with a bid in mid stretch drew clear.
- PELEE ISLAND set the pace and had a slim lead on the far turn but from the three path at the top of the stretch was no match for the winner.
- WHISKYTANGODISCO was off slow, gained ground on the far turn and from the five path at the top of the stretch was up for show.
- ROSE FOR CARRICK stalked the early leader and forced the pace on the far turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch needed more.
- PRECIOUS KID was off the pace and hustled along on the far turn but from the eight path at the top of the stretch was no real threat.
- MY EMMY tracked the early leaders from the outside and was a factor on the far turn but from the seven path at the top of the stretch flattened out.
- ALNESSA was in mid pack early but lost ground on the far turn and was empty.
- WILD HOUDINI was off slow and showed nothing in a dull effort.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | Tanist | 3.05-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 3 | Pelee Island | 11.7-1 | 1.75 |
| 3 | 9 | Whiskytangodisco | 5.85-1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 5 | Rose for Carrick | 7.25-1 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 6 | Precious Kid | 33.5-1 | 0.5 |
| 6 | 7 | My Emmy | 0.85-1 | 5.75 |
| 7 | 1 | Alnessa | 32.0-1 | 14.5 |
| 8 | 2 | Wild Houdini | 30.8-1 | 24.75 |
| SCR | — | Bildean | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: TANIST was unhurried early, moved up from the inside on the far turn and with a bid in mid stretch drew clear. PELEE ISLAND set the pace and had a slim lead on the far turn but from the three path at the top of the stretch was no match for the winner. WHISKYTANGODISCO was off slow, gained ground on the far turn and from the five path at the top of the stretch was up for show. ROSE FOR CARRICK stalked the early leader and forced the pace on the far turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch needed more. PRECIOUS KID was off the pace and hustled along on the far turn but from the eight path at the top of the stretch was no real threat. MY EMMY tracked the early leaders from the outside and was a factor on the far turn but from the seven path at the top of the stretch flattened out. ALNESSA was in mid pack early but lost ground on the far turn and was empty. WILD HOUDINI was off slow and showed nothing in a dull effort. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE No-pace crawl — seven closers, two stalkers, zero declared E; bias favours inside and early speed that isn't here · CHALK #7 MY EMMY · short (2.5 ML) · solid model edge but chalk by rule; stalker in a no-pace race from post 7 is workable, not fadeable — just unplayable at the price CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 FE R4 pass_ok · winner #8 TANIST @ 3.05 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R5#6 Back to Reality · 0.35-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.45 · 45.03 · Final 51.08
Splits (22:58) (6:05)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Back to Reality | 3 · 11 · 12 · 1/2 · 13 · 1/2 |
| 1 | Fairhopecurly | 2 · 32 · 1/2 · 33 · 35 |
| 5 | Sea to Air | 5 · 43 · 43 · 1/2 · 47 · 1/4 |
| 3 | Forest Flash | 4 · 53 · 1/2 · 54 · 1/2 · 57 · 1/2 |
| 2 | Golden Spring | 6 · 611 · 1/2 · 66 · 1/2 · 613 · 3/4 |
BACK TO REALITY showed speed from the outside, had the lead on the turn and with a clear lead in mid stretch was kept to task. FIFTY B M G was away alertly, a factor on the turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch held place. FAIRHOPECURLY was hustled early, in tight on the turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch was outfinished. SEA TO AIR was unhurried early and moved up on the turn but from the five path at the top of the stretch leveled off. FOREST FLASH was up close early but checked going into the turn and from the seven path at the top of the stretch had no rally. GOLDEN SPRING was off the pace, showed nothing and had no impact. A STEWARDS' INQUIRY AND A CLAIM OF FOUL BY THE RIDER ON FAIRHOPECURLY AGAINST BOTH FIFTY B M G AND BACK TO REALITY FOR INTERFERENCE GOING INTO THE TURN RESULTED IN FIFTY B M G BEING DISQUALIFIED AND PLACED FIFTH.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #6 Back to Reality · close 0.35-1
- BACK TO REALITY showed speed from the outside, had the lead on the turn and with a clear lead in mid stretch was kept to task. FIFTY B M G was away alertly, a factor on the turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch held place.
- FAIRHOPECURLY was hustled early, in tight on the turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch was outfinished.
- SEA TO AIR was unhurried early and moved up on the turn but from the five path at the top of the stretch leveled off.
- FOREST FLASH was up close early but checked going into the turn and from the seven path at the top of the stretch had no rally.
- GOLDEN SPRING was off the pace, showed nothing and had no impact. A STEWARDS' INQUIRY AND A CLAIM OF FOUL BY THE RIDER ON FAIRHOPECURLY AGAINST BOTH FIFTY B M G AND BACK TO REALITY FOR INTERFERENCE GOING INTO THE TURN RESULTED IN FIFTY B M G BEING DISQUALIFIED AND PLACED FIFTH.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Back to Reality | 0.35-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 4 | DQ-Fifty B M G | 8.75-1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1 | Fairhopecurly | 30.1-1 | 2.25 |
| 4 | 5 | Sea to Air | 13.2-1 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 3 | Forest Flash | 2.80-1 | 6.25 |
| 6 | 2 | Golden Spring | 78.2-1 | 13.75 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: BACK TO REALITY showed speed from the outside, had the lead on the turn and with a clear lead in mid stretch was kept to task. FIFTY B M G was away alertly, a factor on the turn and from the three path at the top of the stretch held place. FAIRHOPECURLY was hustled early, in tight on the turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch was outfinished. SEA TO AIR was unhurried early and moved up on the turn but from the five path at the top of the stretch leveled off. FOREST FLASH was up close early but checked going into the turn and from the seven path at the top of the stretch had no rally. GOLDEN SPRING was off the pace, showed nothing and had no impact. A STEWARDS' INQUIRY AND A CLAIM OF FOUL BY THE RIDER ON FAIRHOPECURLY AGAINST BOTH FIFTY B M G AND BACK TO REALITY FOR INTERFERENCE GOING INTO THE TURN RESULTED IN FIFTY B M G BEING DISQUALIFIED AND PLACED FIFTH. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Wall of four early types (##2,3,4,6) sets up a probable speed duel; track bias favors early inside speed but an honest pace could set up pressers — neither presser has enough figure to capitalise · CHALK #6 BACK TO REALITY (ML 1.4) and #3 FOREST FLASH (ML 2.5) — both chalk by definition; #6 is rising-fig / 2nd-off-layoff but is the shortest price on the board and an automatic pass; #3 showed a rising fig last but figs are inconsistent and LP is weak CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 FE R5 pass_ok · winner #6 BACK TO REALITY @ 0.35 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R6#2 Palmilla's Bet · 5.55-1play passBETRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.46 · 46.44 · 59.16 · Final 1:05.64
Splits (23:98) (12:72) (6:48)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmilla's Bet | 5 · 55 · 33 · 31 · 1Head |
| 3 | Maritude | 6 · 31 · 1/2 · 21/2 · 11 · 2Head |
| 6 | Hobbie Class | 2 · 11 · 11/2 · 21 · 38 |
| 1 | Porshas Run | 7 · 66 · 44 · 43 · 1/2 · 410 · 1/4 |
| 7 | Miss Wobbles | 1 · 21 · 54 · 54 · 1/2 · 510 · 1/2 |
| 5 | La Belva | 3 · 44 · 1/2 · 65 · 1/2 · 66 · 615 · 1/4 |
| 4 | Ring Bit | 4 · 713 · 711 · 78 · 715 · 1/4 |
PALMILLA'S BET was unhurried early, roused from the inside on the turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch was up in time. MARITUDE was in touch, a factor on the turn and had the lead from the five path in mid stretch but failed to hold. HOBBIE CLASS set the pace and had the lead on the turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch gave way. PORSHAS RUN was off slow and moved up on the turn but from the six path at the top of the stretch leveled off. MISS WOBBLES stalked the early leader, lost ground on the turn, was empty and took the equine ambulance off the track. LA BELVA was in mid pack and roused on the turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch had no response. RING BIT settled off the pace, showed little and was never in contention.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #2 Palmilla's Bet · close 5.55-1
- PALMILLA'S BET was unhurried early, roused from the inside on the turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch was up in time.
- MARITUDE was in touch, a factor on the turn and had the lead from the five path in mid stretch but failed to hold.
- HOBBIE CLASS set the pace and had the lead on the turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch gave way.
- PORSHAS RUN was off slow and moved up on the turn but from the six path at the top of the stretch leveled off.
- MISS WOBBLES stalked the early leader, lost ground on the turn, was empty and took the equine ambulance off the track.
- LA BELVA was in mid pack and roused on the turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch had no response.
- RING BIT settled off the pace, showed little and was never in contention.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Palmilla's Bet | 5.55-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 3 | Maritude | 3.15-1 | 8 |
| 3 | 6 | Hobbie Class | 2.85-1 | 2.25 |
| 4 | 1 | Porshas Run | 26.3-1 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 7 | Miss Wobbles | 8.10-1 | 4.75 |
| 6 | 5 | La Belva | 8.65-1 | 0.2 |
| 7 | 4 | Ring Bit | 2.25-1 | 15.25 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS — #6 is the lone overlay but one ready flag (3rd-start-cycle only), a collapsing last line ("hustled early; empty"), negative zForm, outside post against a hard inside bias, and edge of 0.032 is thin; no minimum odds exist where this horse is a confident win bet · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- BET · #6 HOBBIE CLASS · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes:
PALMILLA'S BET was unhurried early, roused from the inside on the turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch was up in time. MARITUDE was in touch, a factor on the turn and had the lead from the five path in mid stretch but failed to hold. HOBBIE CLASS set the pace and had the lead on the turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch gave way. PORSHAS RUN was off slow and moved up on the turn but from the six path at the top of the stretch leveled off. MISS WOBBLES stalked the early leader, lost ground on the turn, was empty and took the equine ambulance off the track. LA BELVA was in mid pack and roused on the turn but from the four path at the top of the stretch had no response. RING BIT settled off the pace, showed little and was never in contention.
SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS — #6 is the lone overlay but one ready flag (3rd-start-cycle only), a collapsing last line ("hustled early; empty"), negative zForm, outside post against a hard inside bias, and edge of 0.032 is thin; no minimum odds exist where this horse is a confident win bet · SHAPE Wall of pressers, no lone speed, inside bias favors posts 1–3; duel likely, late runners get a target but bias cuts against them · CHALK #4 RING BIT 2 · usable but short · 2nd-off-layoff figs are real but ML 2 offers no price and post 4 misses the bias sweet spot
CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model BET #6 HOBBIE CLASS · 2026-09-14 FE R6 overlay_miss · winner #2 PALMILLAS BET @ 5.55 · overlay #6 HOBBIE CLASS edge 0.032 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use
KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.R7#3 Beautiful Sky · 1.65-1play passBETRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 24.44 · 48.76 · 1:12.44 · Final 1:38.42
Splits (24:32) (23:68) (25:98)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Beautiful Sky | 1 · 32 · 1/2 · 21 · 1/2 · 21 · 21 · 1/2 · 1Head |
| 5 | Crumlin Trouble | 4 · 12 · 11 · 1/2 · 11 · 11 · 1/2 · 2Head |
| 2 | Coach Caley (IRE) | 3 · 53 · 1/2 · 33 · 32 · 1/2 · 32 · 1/2 · 33/4 |
| 6 | Last Glimmer | 5 · 74 · 3/4 · 75 · 1/2 · 67 · 55 · 47 |
| 1 | Little Fire | 8 · 89 · 3/4 · 810 · 1/2 · 810 · 1/2 · 76 · 1/2 · 57 · 1/4 |
| 8 | Mimi's Holiday | 7 · 64 · 1/2 · 65 · 710 · 86 · 1/2 · 610 |
| 7 | Gambler's Pose | 6 · 43 · 1/2 · 43 · 44 · 43 · 1/2 · 711 · 1/2 |
| 4 | Kid Gizmo | 2 · 22 · 53 · 1/2 · 55 · 1/2 · 66 · 812 · 1/2 |
BEAUTIFUL SKY stalked the early leader, was a factor on the far turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch fought gamely for the win. CRUMLIN TROUBLE set the pace and had the lead on the far turn but with a clear lead in mid stretch was caught late. COACH CALEY (IRE) was in touch, hustled along on the far turn and from the six path at the top of the stretch finished well. LAST GLIMMER settled off the pace, was roused from the inside on the far turn and was up for a share. LITTLE FIRE was well back, closed the gap on the far turn and was the best of the rest. MIMI'S HOLIDAY was off the pace and saved ground on the far turn but was no threat. GAMBLER'S POSE was in range and had a mild gain on the far turn but from the three path at the top of the stretch flattened out. KID GIZMO was up close early but chased on the far turn and from the eight path at the top of the stretch faded.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #3 Beautiful Sky · close 1.65-1
- BEAUTIFUL SKY stalked the early leader, was a factor on the far turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch fought gamely for the win.
- CRUMLIN TROUBLE set the pace and had the lead on the far turn but with a clear lead in mid stretch was caught late.
- COACH CALEY (IRE) was in touch, hustled along on the far turn and from the six path at the top of the stretch finished well.
- LAST GLIMMER settled off the pace, was roused from the inside on the far turn and was up for a share.
- LITTLE FIRE was well back, closed the gap on the far turn and was the best of the rest.
- MIMI'S HOLIDAY was off the pace and saved ground on the far turn but was no threat.
- GAMBLER'S POSE was in range and had a mild gain on the far turn but from the three path at the top of the stretch flattened out.
- KID GIZMO was up close early but chased on the far turn and from the eight path at the top of the stretch faded.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Beautiful Sky | 1.65-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 5 | Crumlin Trouble | 1.75-1 | 0.75 |
| 3 | 2 | Coach Caley (IRE) | 4.50-1 | 6.25 |
| 4 | 6 | Last Glimmer | 29.6-1 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1 | Little Fire | 24.9-1 | 2.75 |
| 6 | 8 | Mimi's Holiday | 19.6-1 | 1.5 |
| 7 | 7 | Gambler's Pose | 17.8-1 | 1 |
| 8 | 4 | Kid Gizmo | 7.20-1 | 12.5 |
| SCR | — | Clarayouthebest | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS — #9 has model edge but zero ready flags, a negative zForm, an extreme outside post in a rail-bias race, and 84 days off dirt into turf; the price is right but the path and cycle are not convincing enough to override the concerns · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- BET · #9 CLARAYOUTHEBEST · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: BEAUTIFUL SKY stalked the early leader, was a factor on the far turn and from the four path at the top of the stretch fought gamely for the win. CRUMLIN TROUBLE set the pace and had the lead on the far turn but with a clear lead in mid stretch was caught late. COACH CALEY (IRE) was in touch, hustled along on the far turn and from the six path at the top of the stretch finished well. LAST GLIMMER settled off the pace, was roused from the inside on the far turn and was up for a share. LITTLE FIRE was well back, closed the gap on the far turn and was the best of the rest. MIMI'S HOLIDAY was off the pace and saved ground on the far turn but was no threat. GAMBLER'S POSE was in range and had a mild gain on the far turn but from the three path at the top of the stretch flattened out. KID GIZMO was up close early but chased on the far turn and from the eight path at the top of the stretch faded. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS — #9 has model edge but zero ready flags, a negative zForm, an extreme outside post in a rail-bias race, and 84 days off dirt into turf; the price is right but the path and cycle are not convincing enough to override the concerns · SHAPE Lone speed (#5) on an inside rail bias; six closers sit and wait — honest pace unlikely, soft-lead scenario dominant, closer breakout only if chalk flattens in the lane · CHALK #5 CRUMLIN TROUBLE · short (2.5 ML) · usable but short — lone speed, inside post, rail bias in its favor, but class up from fClm7500b, trouble last, and switching back to turf from dirt; not a fade, not a bet CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model BET #9 CLARAYOUTHEBEST · 2026-09-14 FE R7 overlay_miss · winner #3 BEAUTIFUL SKY @ 1.65 · overlay #9 CLARAYOUTHEBEST edge 0.036 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.