What this card taught
- Next RaceDay brief reads PLAY MEMORY and CARD REVIEW from earlier dates only. Same-day races do not leak.
- 2 PLAY outs stay on the memory line. That is a notice, not a weight.
- 1 PLAY hit recorded. Hit rate does not move Kelly, how hard we tilt toward the model, or the scanner.
- 2 misses had no tote stamp. Floor never checked live.
Scanner and overlay still read the frozen production file. Last test of the price model and residual stay captions.
| R | Winner | PLAY | Miss | Why | Overlay then | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | #3 BUXTEHUDE 0.9-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 MNR R1 pass_ok · winner #3 BUXTEHUDE @ 0.9 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R2 | #9 TODO FINO 1.8-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 MNR R2 pass_ok · winner #9 TODO FINO @ 1.8 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R3 | #4 OPPOSITE THE CROWD 1.8-1 | Out #1 FIVEMINUTSOFPASION · win · min 3-1 (pass if board goes shorter) | PLAY out | PLAY out no tote PLAY finished out of the money. No sharper why on the stored sheet. | BET #1 FIVEMINUTSOFPASION · +4.1% | Overlay miss 2026-09-14 MNR R3 overlay_miss · winner #4 OPPOSITE THE CROWD @ 1.8 · overlay #1 FIVEMINUTSOFPASION edge 0.041 · PLAY out #1 |
| R4 | #7 SOUTHERN BULLET 2.1-1 | Pass PASS — #7 is primed but is model-underlay (edge 0.008, not an overlay), post 7 fights the inside-rail bias, and #5's price overlay is undercut by collapsing figs; no non-chalk overlay with a clean path meets the floor | Pass held | — | WATCH #5 JOKER WENT WILD · +2.2% | Overlay miss 2026-09-14 MNR R4 overlay_miss · winner #7 SOUTHERN BULLET @ 2.1 · overlay #5 JOKER WENT WILD edge 0.022 · PLAY pass |
| R5 | #2 TIZ A HERO 0.7-1 | Win #2 TIZ A HERO · min 5-2 · win · (ML 3 is acceptable; pass if board compresses below 5-2 at close) | PLAY hit | — | BET #2 TIZ A HERO · +3.8% | PLAY hit 2026-09-14 MNR R5 play_hit · winner #2 TIZ A HERO @ 0.7 · overlay #2 TIZ A HERO edge 0.038 · PLAY win #2 |
| R6 | #2 FLIGHT CONTROL 0.7-1 | Out #4 SCREAM MACHINE · min 3-1 · win (at 5-2 or shorter, pass) | PLAY out | PLAY out no tote PLAY finished out of the money. No sharper why on the stored sheet. | BET #4 SCREAM MACHINE · +5.4% | Overlay miss 2026-09-14 MNR R6 overlay_miss · winner #2 FLIGHT CONTROL @ 0.7 · overlay #4 SCREAM MACHINE edge 0.054 · PLAY out #4 |
| R7 | #3 EL GUTY 4.5-1 | Pass PASS — #2 TATE is primed but not an overlay (edge 0.016, overlay=false); #4 SEMPER ANTICUS carries a real class question jumping from Clm4000 and has only one ready flag; neither clears the bar for a win play at morning-line prices | Pass held | — | WATCH #4 SEMPER ANTICUS · +2.4% | Overlay miss 2026-09-14 MNR R7 overlay_miss · winner #3 EL GUTY @ 4.5 · overlay #4 SEMPER ANTICUS edge 0.024 · PLAY pass |
| R8 | #7 BIG EFFECT 0.4-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 MNR R8 pass_ok · winner #7 BIG EFFECT @ 0.4 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
Built 2026-09-16 02:27Z · promotionAuthority false · overlay edge units are model−market (2.0% threshold then).