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MNR · 2026-09-14

Chart replay. Equibase tells what happened. Card review tells what we did. Overlay stays frozen.

Official chart Equibase · parser 1.2.0 · checksum c644244bf8620663 · us_mutuel_to_one

R1#3 Buxtehude · 0.90-1play passPASSRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.95 · 47.21 · Final 1:00.93

Splits (24:26) (13:72)

PgmHorseCalls
3Buxtehude2 · 22 · 1Head · 1Head · 13 · 1/4
6Prairie Brat1 · 12 · 2Head · 2Head · 23 · 1/4
5R Candy3 · 43 · 1/2 · 44 · 1/4 · 38 · 38
2Holly Roller6 · 69 · 66 · 3/4 · 512 · 1/2 · 49 · 1/4
9Pap's Lil Patriot5 · 55 · 54 · 3/4 · 613 · 511 · 1/4
8Reign in My Heart4 · 33 · 1/2 · 34 · 411 · 611 · 3/4

BUXTEHUDE angled out into the turn dueling abreast rival into upper stretch clearing late. PRAIRIE BRAT broke sharply being hooked on the turn dueling from the rail down the lane ceding grudgingly late. R CANDY raced evenly holding off the others. HOLLY ROLLER was never involved. PAP'S LIL PATRIOT was always outrun. REIGN IN MY HEART hustled along would tire.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #3 Buxtehude · close 0.90-1

  • BUXTEHUDE angled out into the turn dueling abreast rival into upper stretch clearing late.
  • PRAIRIE BRAT broke sharply being hooked on the turn dueling from the rail down the lane ceding grudgingly late.
  • R CANDY raced evenly holding off the others.
  • HOLLY ROLLER was never involved.
  • PAP'S LIL PATRIOT was always outrun.
  • REIGN IN MY HEART hustled along would tire.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
13Buxtehude0.90-10
26Prairie Brat7.60-14.75
35R Candy14.0-11.25
42Holly Roller4.40-12
59Pap's Lil Patriot5.20-10.5
68Reign in My Heart5-111.75
SCR—Don Diva——
SCR—Sagcy——
SCR—Salty Mama——
SCR—Sister Winnie——
SCR—Spoken Vow——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS · Pass held · pass
Price model
PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
BUXTEHUDE angled out into the turn dueling abreast rival into upper stretch clearing late. PRAIRIE BRAT broke sharply being hooked on the turn dueling from the rail down the lane ceding grudgingly late. R CANDY raced evenly holding off the others. HOLLY ROLLER was never involved. PAP'S LIL PATRIOT was always outrun. REIGN IN MY HEART hustled along would tire.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Speed-heavy duel setup; chalk sits in a bias-dead outside post but still holds the best model number; no closer path is clean with posts 8+ showing zero wins in the 30-day sample · CHALK #9 PAPS LIL PATRIOT · short (ML 2) · solid form, only edge horse, but post 9 is a graveyard on this surface today

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 MNR R1 pass_ok · winner #3 BUXTEHUDE @ 0.9 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R2#9 Todo Fino (CHI) · 1.80-1play passPASSRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.45 · 46.18 · 58.90 · Final 1:12.34

Splits (23:73) (12:72) (13:44)

PgmHorseCalls
9Todo Fino (CHI)4 · 43 · 1/2 · 2Head · 11 · 13/4
10Standard of Proof7 · 55 · 1/2 · 53/4 · 33 · 23/4
3Undalay2 · 21/2 · 1Head · 21 · 32
5Cool Couple5 · 76 · 72 · 66 · 43 · 1/4
7Misterchilliwilli1 · 32 · 1/2 · 3Head · 54 · 58 · 1/4
6Prairie Hawk3 · 11/2 · 4Neck · 43 · 69
1Union Branch6 · 66 · 61 · 3/4 · 76 · 1/2 · 715 · 1/4

TODO FINO (CHI) bid four deep on the turn clearing in upper stretch holding to outside pressure late. STANDARD OF PROOF rallied on the turn surging to press late five wide. UNDALAY pressed the pace dueling on the inside on the turn extending down the lane hanging a bit late. COOL COUPLE slow early angled out into upper stretch moving up late six wide. MISTERCHILLIWILLI bid between horses on the turn then weakened in upper stretch. PRAIRIE HAWK pressed the pace through the turn tiring in upper stretch. UNION BRANCH saving ground was never involved.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #9 Todo Fino (CHI) · close 1.80-1

  • TODO FINO (CHI) bid four deep on the turn clearing in upper stretch holding to outside pressure late.
  • STANDARD OF PROOF rallied on the turn surging to press late five wide.
  • UNDALAY pressed the pace dueling on the inside on the turn extending down the lane hanging a bit late.
  • COOL COUPLE slow early angled out into upper stretch moving up late six wide.
  • MISTERCHILLIWILLI bid between horses on the turn then weakened in upper stretch.
  • PRAIRIE HAWK pressed the pace through the turn tiring in upper stretch.
  • UNION BRANCH saving ground was never involved.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
19Todo Fino (CHI)1.80-10
210Standard of Proof5.40-11.25
33Undalay5.30-11.25
45Cool Couple6.40-15
57Misterchilliwilli2.30-125.75
66Prairie Hawk8.80-16.25
71Union Branch53.4-115.25
SCR—Bosley——
SCR—Devil's Harvest——
SCR—Royal Salute——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS · Pass held · pass
Price model
PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
TODO FINO (CHI) bid four deep on the turn clearing in upper stretch holding to outside pressure late. STANDARD OF PROOF rallied on the turn surging to press late five wide. UNDALAY pressed the pace dueling on the inside on the turn extending down the lane hanging a bit late. COOL COUPLE slow early angled out into upper stretch moving up late six wide. MISTERCHILLIWILLI bid between horses on the turn then weakened in upper stretch. PRAIRIE HAWK pressed the pace through the turn tiring in upper stretch. UNION BRANCH saving ground was never involved.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Crowded early — #2/#4/#6 all E outside; inside rail bias favors speed but outside posts face a drag; duel pressure likely, stalkers and closers inherit if pace collapses · CHALK #8 ROYAL SALUTE · short (2-1 ML) · usable but short — rising fig (80 last), presser from post 8 on a rail-biased turf sprint; outside post is a mild negative but zPace is negative and he is exposed at class level; not opposable on shape alone

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 MNR R2 pass_ok · winner #9 TODO FINO @ 1.8 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R3#4 Opposite the Crowd · 1.80-1play outBETRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.75 · 46.62 · 59.89 · Final 1:13.70

Splits (23:87) (13:27) (13:81)

PgmHorseCalls
4Opposite the Crowd8 · 710 · 3/4 · 65 · 1/4 · 51 · 3/4 · 11
7Loaded Once More1 · 31 · 43/4 · 3Head · 21
6Rock Star Parking2 · 2Head · 1Head · 1Head · 32 · 1/2
3A Little Bit Crazy5 · 53 · 1/4 · 51 · 1/4 · 43/4 · 43 · 1/4
2General Ginny7 · 63 · 3/4 · 77 · 1/4 · 64 · 3/4 · 53 · 3/4
1Fiveminutsofpasion4 · 1Head · 2Head · 2Head · 64
5Worth Considering6 · 811 · 1/4 · 89 · 1/4 · 87 · 1/4 · 78 · 1/2
8Unstable Mabel3 · 41 · 1/4 · 3Head · 75 · 1/4 · 89 · 1/4

OPPOSITE THE CROWD was bumped and crowded at the break, circled out to upper stretch surgING up late six wide. LOADED ONCE MORE chased then pressed in bid on the turn dueling in upper stretch taking a late lead ceding to wide pressure. ROCK STAR PARKING pressed the pace dueling into upper stretch ceding late on the inside. A LITTLE BIT CRAZY chased on the turn looming in upper stretch lacking punch at the end. GENERAL GINNY hopped missing the break. FIVEMINUTSOFPASION pressed the pace dueling into upper stretch weakening late at the rail. WORTH CONSIDERING came in bumping and crowding foe at the break. UNSTABLE MABEL pressed through the turn then faded in upper stretch. AN OBJECTION FROM THE RIDER OF WORTH CONSIDERING AGAINST THE RIDER OF ROCK STAR PARKING FOR INTERFERENCE AT THE BREAK WAS DISALLOWED.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #4 Opposite the Crowd · close 1.80-1

  • OPPOSITE THE CROWD was bumped and crowded at the break, circled out to upper stretch surgING up late six wide.
  • LOADED ONCE MORE chased then pressed in bid on the turn dueling in upper stretch taking a late lead ceding to wide pressure.
  • ROCK STAR PARKING pressed the pace dueling into upper stretch ceding late on the inside.
  • A LITTLE BIT CRAZY chased on the turn looming in upper stretch lacking punch at the end.
  • GENERAL GINNY hopped missing the break.
  • FIVEMINUTSOFPASION pressed the pace dueling into upper stretch weakening late at the rail.
  • WORTH CONSIDERING came in bumping and crowding foe at the break.
  • UNSTABLE MABEL pressed through the turn then faded in upper stretch. AN OBJECTION FROM THE RIDER OF WORTH CONSIDERING AGAINST THE RIDER OF ROCK STAR PARKING FOR INTERFERENCE AT THE BREAK WAS DISALLOWED.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
14Opposite the Crowd1.80-10
27Loaded Once More2.30-11.5
36Rock Star Parking8.90-10.75
43A Little Bit Crazy5.80-114.5
52General Ginny24.8-10.3
61Fiveminutsofpasion8.10-14.5
75Worth Considering25.6-10.75
88Unstable Mabel7-19.25

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
#1 FIVEMINUTSOFPASION · win · min 3-1 (pass if board goes shorter) · PLAY out · play_out · out
Price model
BET · #1 FIVEMINUTSOFPASION · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
OPPOSITE THE CROWD was bumped and crowded at the break, circled out to upper stretch surgING up late six wide. LOADED ONCE MORE chased then pressed in bid on the turn dueling in upper stretch taking a late lead ceding to wide pressure. ROCK STAR PARKING pressed the pace dueling into upper stretch ceding late on the inside. A LITTLE BIT CRAZY chased on the turn looming in upper stretch lacking punch at the end. GENERAL GINNY hopped missing the break. FIVEMINUTSOFPASION pressed the pace dueling into upper stretch weakening late at the rail. WORTH CONSIDERING came in bumping and crowding foe at the break. UNSTABLE MABEL pressed through the turn then faded in upper stretch. AN OBJECTION FROM THE RIDER OF WORTH CONSIDERING AGAINST THE RIDER OF ROCK STAR PARKING FOR INTERFERENCE AT THE BREAK WAS DISALLOWED.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY #1 FIVEMINUTSOFPASION · win · min 3-1 (pass if board goes shorter) · SHAPE Lone-speed #8 E from post 8 into a closer/inside-rail bias; pressers #1 and #7 tracking; scenario favors the stalker on the fence · CHALK #7 LOADED ONCE MORE · short/opposable · post 7, no ready flags, fig declining, outside post in an inside-rail bias

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet play_out · out · play_out · price model BET #1 FIVEMINUTSOFPASION · 2026-09-14 MNR R3 overlay_miss · winner #4 OPPOSITE THE CROWD @ 1.8 · overlay #1 FIVEMINUTSOFPASION edge 0.041 · PLAY out #1 — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R4#7 Southern Bullet · 2.10-1play passWATCHRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.77 · 46.75 · 59.61 · Final 1:13.04

Splits (23:98) (12:86) (13:43)

PgmHorseCalls
7Southern Bullet3 · 46 · 24 · 25 · 13/4
5Joker Went Wild1 · 1Head · 14 · 15 · 23/4
3New York New York6 · 610 · 56 · 1/2 · 39 · 36 · 3/4
2Klimtster4 · 59 · 66 · 3/4 · 513 · 48 · 1/2
1Lucho5 · 34 · 44 · 1/2 · 49 · 516
4K's Red Bull2 · 2Head · 34 · 615 · 617 · 1/4

SOUTHERN BULLET emerged off a loose leader on the turn surging from mid track late arriving in time. JOKER WENT WILD shook clear on the turn digging in near the rail through the lane being run down in the final yards. NEW YORK NEW YORK slow early raced evenly through the lane to best the others. KLIMTSTER played no factor. LUCHO raced evenly fading in upper stretch. K'S RED BULL pressed early tiring to upper stretch.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #7 Southern Bullet · close 2.10-1

  • SOUTHERN BULLET emerged off a loose leader on the turn surging from mid track late arriving in time.
  • JOKER WENT WILD shook clear on the turn digging in near the rail through the lane being run down in the final yards.
  • NEW YORK NEW YORK slow early raced evenly through the lane to best the others.
  • KLIMTSTER played no factor.
  • LUCHO raced evenly fading in upper stretch.
  • K'S RED BULL pressed early tiring to upper stretch.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
17Southern Bullet2.10-10
25Joker Went Wild0.70-16
33New York New York4.10-11.75
42Klimtster46.3-17.5
51Lucho13.4-11.25
64K's Red Bull37.4-117.25
SCR—Viva Victory——
SCR—Yemrehanakristos——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS — #7 is primed but is model-underlay (edge 0.008, not an overlay), post 7 fights the inside-rail bias, and #5's price overlay is undercut by collapsing figs; no non-chalk overlay with a clean path meets the floor · Pass held · pass
Price model
WATCH · #5 JOKER WENT WILD · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
SOUTHERN BULLET emerged off a loose leader on the turn surging from mid track late arriving in time. JOKER WENT WILD shook clear on the turn digging in near the rail through the lane being run down in the final yards. NEW YORK NEW YORK slow early raced evenly through the lane to best the others. KLIMTSTER played no factor. LUCHO raced evenly fading in upper stretch. K'S RED BULL pressed early tiring to upper stretch.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS — #7 is primed but is model-underlay (edge 0.008, not an overlay), post 7 fights the inside-rail bias, and #5's price overlay is undercut by collapsing figs; no non-chalk overlay with a clean path meets the floor · SHAPE Closer-dominated field, two pressers (#5, #4), honest-to-moderate pace expected; inside-rail closer bias favors clean trips from inner posts · CHALK #3 NEW YORK NEW YORK 2 · short (ML 2, model overlay but chalk by rule) · not a play

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model WATCH #5 JOKER WENT WILD · 2026-09-14 MNR R4 overlay_miss · winner #7 SOUTHERN BULLET @ 2.1 · overlay #5 JOKER WENT WILD edge 0.022 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R5#2 Tiz a Hero · 0.70-1play winBETRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.97 · 47.59 · 1:00.81 · Final 1:07.85

Splits (24:62) (13:22) (7:04)

PgmHorseCalls
2Tiz a Hero2 · 2Head · 11/2 · 15 · 16 · 3/4
3Blumoon Fire3 · 42 · 21/2 · 25 · 26 · 3/4
7Rosie Ann Rules6 · 57 · 58 · 1/2 · 57 · 1/2 · 38
5Moonlight Martini7 · 711 · 1/4 · 611 · 1/2 · 69 · 1/2 · 49 · 3/4
1Veri Collected4 · 31 · 43 · 1/2 · 35 · 1/2 · 513
8Chelle Shocked1 · 1Head · 31 · 1/2 · 46 · 1/2 · 615
4Tornada's Quest5 · 67 · 1/4 · 712 · 710 · 715 · 3/4
6Special Cap8 · 812 · 1/4 · 820 · 826 · 840

TIZ A HERO pressed on the inside on the turn shaking clear in upper stretch finishing as much the best. BLUMOON FIRE pressed on the turn racing wide into upper stretch holding for place. ROSIE ANN RULES slow early raced evenly down the lane gaining some position. MOONLIGHT MARTINI slow early played no factor. VERI COLLECTED chased the pace weakening down the lane. CHELLE SHOCKED pressed the pace fading down the stretch. TORNADA'S QUEST was always outrun. SPECIAL CAP veered out bumping then steadying at the break.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #2 Tiz a Hero · close 0.70-1

  • TIZ A HERO pressed on the inside on the turn shaking clear in upper stretch finishing as much the best.
  • BLUMOON FIRE pressed on the turn racing wide into upper stretch holding for place.
  • ROSIE ANN RULES slow early raced evenly down the lane gaining some position.
  • MOONLIGHT MARTINI slow early played no factor.
  • VERI COLLECTED chased the pace weakening down the lane.
  • CHELLE SHOCKED pressed the pace fading down the stretch.
  • TORNADA'S QUEST was always outrun.
  • SPECIAL CAP veered out bumping then steadying at the break.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
12Tiz a Hero0.70-10
23Blumoon Fire2.20-11.25
37Rosie Ann Rules7.80-11.75
45Moonlight Martini56.5-13.25
51Veri Collected6.90-12
68Chelle Shocked40.5-10.75
74Tornada's Quest24.2-124.25
86Special Cap85.2-140

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
#2 TIZ A HERO · min 5-2 · win · (ML 3 is acceptable; pass if board compresses below 5-2 at close) · PLAY hit · win
Price model
BET · #2 TIZ A HERO · edge — overlay was the official winner — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
TIZ A HERO pressed on the inside on the turn shaking clear in upper stretch finishing as much the best. BLUMOON FIRE pressed on the turn racing wide into upper stretch holding for place. ROSIE ANN RULES slow early raced evenly down the lane gaining some position. MOONLIGHT MARTINI slow early played no factor. VERI COLLECTED chased the pace weakening down the lane. CHELLE SHOCKED pressed the pace fading down the stretch. TORNADA'S QUEST was always outrun. SPECIAL CAP veered out bumping then steadying at the break.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY #2 TIZ A HERO · min 5-2 · win · (ML 3 is acceptable; pass if board compresses below 5-2 at close) · SHAPE Thin pace with #2 EP as the lone clear forwardness; closer/stalker bias on card but inside rail rewards early position — stalking shape into closer-friendly finish suits #2's EP style off post 2 · CHALK #7 ROSIE ANN RULES · short (ML 2) · opposable — post 7 outside, track shows Posts 8+ at 0% winners, horse must rally from S position through traffic; rising fig (50→58) is real but the shape and post work against it at this price

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet play_hit · win · price model BET #2 TIZ A HERO · 2026-09-14 MNR R5 play_hit · winner #2 TIZ A HERO @ 0.7 · overlay #2 TIZ A HERO edge 0.038 · PLAY win #2 — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R6#2 Flight Control · 0.70-1play outBETRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.42 · 46.12 · Final 52.72

Splits (23:70) (6:60)

PgmHorseCalls
2Flight Control1 · 2Head · 16 · 18 · 1/4
3Girl Bye3 · 44 · 1/4 · 36 · 1/2 · 28 · 1/4
7Romantic Jewel6 · 68 · 3/4 · 58 · 39
1Scoot Along5 · 58 · 1/4 · 68 · 411 · 1/2
5Divisibility2 · 1Head · 26 · 513 · 1/4
4Scream Machine4 · 34 · 47 · 613 · 3/4

FLIGHT CONTROL pressed on the inside shaking clear in upper stretch widening late under stiff urging. GIRL BYE chased the pace proving no match for the winner while saving place. ROMANTIC JEWEL slow early would finish well. SCOOT ALONG played no factor. DIVISIBILITY pressed through the turn then gave way in mid stretch. SCREAM MACHINE was never involved.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #2 Flight Control · close 0.70-1

  • FLIGHT CONTROL pressed on the inside shaking clear in upper stretch widening late under stiff urging.
  • GIRL BYE chased the pace proving no match for the winner while saving place.
  • ROMANTIC JEWEL slow early would finish well.
  • SCOOT ALONG played no factor.
  • DIVISIBILITY pressed through the turn then gave way in mid stretch.
  • SCREAM MACHINE was never involved.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
12Flight Control0.70-10
23Girl Bye7-10.75
37Romantic Jewel12.9-12.5
41Scoot Along3.20-11.75
55Divisibility34.0-10.5
64Scream Machine4.40-113.75
SCR—Stolen Kisses——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
#4 SCREAM MACHINE · min 3-1 · win (at 5-2 or shorter, pass) · PLAY out · play_out · out
Price model
BET · #4 SCREAM MACHINE · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
FLIGHT CONTROL pressed on the inside shaking clear in upper stretch widening late under stiff urging. GIRL BYE chased the pace proving no match for the winner while saving place. ROMANTIC JEWEL slow early would finish well. SCOOT ALONG played no factor. DIVISIBILITY pressed through the turn then gave way in mid stretch. SCREAM MACHINE was never involved.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY #4 SCREAM MACHINE · min 3-1 · win (at 5-2 or shorter, pass) · SHAPE Three early-speed types (posts 3, 4, 5) set up pace duel; closer/rail bias favors horses that can stalk the wreckage from inside · CHALK #2 FLIGHT CONTROL · short/usable · sharp class drop but 2nd off layoff returning from a 440y sprint, fits EP style, thin fig sample at today's distance

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet play_out · out · play_out · price model BET #4 SCREAM MACHINE · 2026-09-14 MNR R6 overlay_miss · winner #2 FLIGHT CONTROL @ 0.7 · overlay #4 SCREAM MACHINE edge 0.054 · PLAY out #4 — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R7#3 El Guty · 4.50-1play passWATCHRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 24.29 · 48.13 · 1:14.04 · Final 1:41.67

Splits (23:84) (25:91) (27:63)

PgmHorseCalls
3El Guty1 · 12 · 11 · 1/2 · 11 · 13 · 1Head
4Semper Anticus4 · 59 · 1/2 · 58 · 42 · 23 · 2Head
1Judge Rules2 · 33 · 21 · 1/2 · 21 · 34 · 1/2 · 37 · 1/4
5Runningforjoy3 · 22 · 32 · 31 · 1/2 · 46 · 1/2 · 410 · 1/4
2Tate5 · 49 · 48 · 52 · 1/2 · 56 · 1/2 · 511 · 1/4

EL GUTY away alertly set the pace digging in down the lane holding on under inside pressure. SEMPER ANTICUS slow early rallied in upper stretch bidding gamely late on the inside of rival. JUDGE RULES stalked the pace bidding all out on the far turn weakening in upper stretch. RUNNINGFORJOY stalked the pace chasing on the far turn fading wide in upper stretch. TATE was never involved.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #3 El Guty · close 4.50-1

  • EL GUTY away alertly set the pace digging in down the lane holding on under inside pressure.
  • SEMPER ANTICUS slow early rallied in upper stretch bidding gamely late on the inside of rival.
  • JUDGE RULES stalked the pace bidding all out on the far turn weakening in upper stretch.
  • RUNNINGFORJOY stalked the pace chasing on the far turn fading wide in upper stretch.
  • TATE was never involved.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
13El Guty4.50-10
24Semper Anticus9.90-17.25
31Judge Rules16.0-13
45Runningforjoy0.50-11
52Tate3.60-111.25
SCR—Forge in Fire——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS — #2 TATE is primed but not an overlay (edge 0.016, overlay=false); #4 SEMPER ANTICUS carries a real class question jumping from Clm4000 and has only one ready flag; neither clears the bar for a win play at morning-line prices · Pass held · pass
Price model
WATCH · #4 SEMPER ANTICUS · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
EL GUTY away alertly set the pace digging in down the lane holding on under inside pressure. SEMPER ANTICUS slow early rallied in upper stretch bidding gamely late on the inside of rival. JUDGE RULES stalked the pace bidding all out on the far turn weakening in upper stretch. RUNNINGFORJOY stalked the pace chasing on the far turn fading wide in upper stretch. TATE was never involved.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS — #2 TATE is primed but not an overlay (edge 0.016, overlay=false); #4 SEMPER ANTICUS carries a real class question jumping from Clm4000 and has only one ready flag; neither clears the bar for a win play at morning-line prices · SHAPE Two EP types (#6, #3) likely to press early; closer/inside-rail bias sets up stalkers; chalk #5 is a presser without a clean lone-speed setup · CHALK #5 RUNNINGFORJOY and #6 FORGE IN FIRE co-favorites; both opposable — pace duel likely, bias against, class drops that do not scream ready-to-fire at this level

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model WATCH #4 SEMPER ANTICUS · 2026-09-14 MNR R7 overlay_miss · winner #3 EL GUTY @ 4.5 · overlay #4 SEMPER ANTICUS edge 0.024 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R8#7 Big Effect · 0.40-1play passPASSRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.86 · 46.72 · Final 53.13

Splits (23:86) (6:41)

PgmHorseCalls
7Big Effect2 · 2Head · 13 · 14
1Courthouse Cove1 · 31 · 1/2 · 34 · 1/2 · 24
8Vroysky3 · 1Head · 23 · 34
5My Detroit City7 · 69 · 3/4 · 613 · 1/2 · 47 · 3/4
4Jack Bob and Larry6 · 59 · 1/2 · 58 · 1/2 · 511 · 3/4
6El Cardinal4 · 43 · 1/2 · 48 · 1/2 · 613 · 1/4
3Dazzling Truths5 · 711 · 3/4 · 715 · 1/2 · 715

BIG EFFECT pressed the pace shaking clear in upper stretch holding firm to wire. COURTHOUSE COVE chased the pace dueling up for place. VROYSKY pressed the pace chasing down the lane battling for place. MY DETROIT CITY slow early passed a couple down the lane. JACK BOB AND LARRY played no factor. EL CARDINAL raced evenly weakening in upper stretch. DAZZLING TRUTHS was always outrun. Total Attendance: 0 Handle: $1,139,994

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #7 Big Effect · close 0.40-1

  • BIG EFFECT pressed the pace shaking clear in upper stretch holding firm to wire.
  • COURTHOUSE COVE chased the pace dueling up for place.
  • VROYSKY pressed the pace chasing down the lane battling for place.
  • MY DETROIT CITY slow early passed a couple down the lane.
  • JACK BOB AND LARRY played no factor.
  • EL CARDINAL raced evenly weakening in upper stretch.
  • DAZZLING TRUTHS was always outrun. Total Attendance: 0 Handle: $1,139,994
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
17Big Effect0.40-10
21Courthouse Cove3.30-10.2
38Vroysky7.80-13.75
45My Detroit City49.7-14
54Jack Bob and Larry14.2-11.5
66El Cardinal26.0-11.75
73Dazzling Truths25.9-115
SCR—Joe Don Looney——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS · Pass held · pass
Price model
PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
BIG EFFECT pressed the pace shaking clear in upper stretch holding firm to wire. COURTHOUSE COVE chased the pace dueling up for place. VROYSKY pressed the pace chasing down the lane battling for place. MY DETROIT CITY slow early passed a couple down the lane. JACK BOB AND LARRY played no factor. EL CARDINAL raced evenly weakening in upper stretch. DAZZLING TRUTHS was always outrun.

 Total Attendance: 0 Handle: $1,139,994

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Contested EP pace into a closer-biased track; speed may compromise itself, but no non-chalk horse has the fig or price structure to back · CHALK #7 BIG EFFECT · short/usable · EP from post 7 with the best figs in the field, but ML 2 offers no price, last fig regressed, and the closer bias works against him

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 MNR R8 pass_ok · winner #7 BIG EFFECT @ 0.4 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.