What this card taught
- Next RaceDay brief reads PLAY MEMORY and CARD REVIEW from earlier dates only. Same-day races do not leak.
- 1 floor miss — next sheet still tags FLOOR. A board shorter than the floor is a pass, not a blown horse.
- 1 board-inside-floor. Next sheet still writes a min. Shorter than that number is a pass.
- 1 miss had no tote stamp. Floor never checked live.
Scanner and overlay still read the frozen production file. Last test of the price model and residual stay captions.
| R | Winner | PLAY | Miss | Why | Overlay then | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | #6 LAMPORGHINI 0.4-1 | Pass PASS — the sole model overlay is the favorite; no non-chalk horse at a usable number | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-16 MNR R1 pass_ok · winner #6 LAMPORGHINI @ 0.4 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R2 | #4 LUS REDEMPTION 0.9-1 | Floor #4 LUS REDEMPTION · win · minimum 4-1 (ML is 4; need tote confirmation — pass if board drifts shorter) | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (4-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | WATCH #4 LUS REDEMPTION · +2.2% | Floor miss 2026-09-16 MNR R2 floor_miss · winner #4 LUS REDEMPTION @ 0.9 · overlay #4 LUS REDEMPTION edge 0.022 · PLAY floor #4 |
| R3 | #8 INDEPENDENT STREAK 2.7-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-16 MNR R3 pass_ok · winner #8 INDEPENDENT STREAK @ 2.7 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R4 | #8 UNWORKABLE 2.0-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-16 MNR R4 pass_ok · winner #8 UNWORKABLE @ 2 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R5 | #7 OUTKISSED 1.7-1 | Pass PASS — the only model overlay is the chalk; no priceable non-chalk overlay exists | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-16 MNR R5 pass_ok · winner #7 OUTKISSED @ 1.7 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R6 | #5 CAPTAIN ANNE 3.4-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-16 MNR R6 pass_ok · winner #5 CAPTAIN ANNE @ 3.4 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R7 | #6 ATKINS 2.0-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-16 MNR R7 pass_ok · winner #6 ATKINS @ 2 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R8 | #4 SHUKRAN 2.6-1 | Pass PASS — #6 STATE OF ATTACK holds the only model overlay but the edge is thin (0.023), the path depends on a duel that the pace map says is unlikely in scenario A, and post 8 bias (0% wins posts 8+) actively hurts the only horse worth keying; no non-chalk horse clears both a pace path and a meaningful price threshold | Pass held | — | WATCH #6 STATE OF ATTACK · +2.3% | Overlay miss 2026-09-16 MNR R8 overlay_miss · winner #4 SHUKRAN @ 2.6 · overlay #6 STATE OF ATTACK edge 0.023 · PLAY pass |
Built 2026-09-17 17:27Z · promotionAuthority false · overlay edge units are model−market (2.0% threshold then).