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MNR · 2026-09-16

Chart replay. Equibase tells what happened. Card review tells what we did. Overlay stays frozen.

Official chart Equibase · parser 1.2.0 · checksum ef221dfaaa086947 · us_mutuel_to_one

R1#6 Lamporghini · 0.40-1play passPASSRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 24.17 · 48.24 · 1:14.91 · Final 1:43.53

Splits (24:07) (26:67) (28:62)

PgmHorseCalls
6Lamporghini4 · 44 · 24 · 13 · 16 · 18 · 1/4
8Dame Maude Chardin2 · 12 · 34 · 34 · 26 · 28 · 1/4
3Worldly Beauty3 · 510 · 59 · 1/2 · 47 · 37 · 312
2Carlotuk6 · 611 · 612 · 1/2 · 58 · 1/2 · 47 · 1/2 · 413 · 3/4
9Cloudy Bay5 · 32 · 14 · 23 · 58 · 518 · 1/2
4Sufferin Succotash1 · 22 · 49 · 615 · 1/2 · 624 · 647 · 1/2

LAMPORGHINI bid clear on the far turn widening to a commanding lead in upper stretch winning as much the best. DAME MAUDE CHARDIN led early ceding on the backside chasing into upper stretch vying there a willing second best. WORLDLY BEAUTY slow early rallied to upper stretch finishing evenly. CARLOTUK slow early improved modestly on the rail. CLOUDY BAY rushed clear on the backside would wear out. SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH folded up after a half mile.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #6 Lamporghini · close 0.40-1

  • LAMPORGHINI bid clear on the far turn widening to a commanding lead in upper stretch winning as much the best.
  • DAME MAUDE CHARDIN led early ceding on the backside chasing into upper stretch vying there a willing second best.
  • WORLDLY BEAUTY slow early rallied to upper stretch finishing evenly.
  • CARLOTUK slow early improved modestly on the rail.
  • CLOUDY BAY rushed clear on the backside would wear out.
  • SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH folded up after a half mile.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
16Lamporghini0.40-10
28Dame Maude Chardin18.4-13.75
33Worldly Beauty3.10-11.75
42Carlotuk15.5-14.75
59Cloudy Bay19.0-129
64Sufferin Succotash8.60-147.5
SCR—Omikami——
SCR—Polyester Bride——
SCR—Q Bond——
SCR—Vino Rosato——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS — the sole model overlay is the favorite; no non-chalk horse at a usable number · Pass held · pass
Price model
PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
LAMPORGHINI bid clear on the far turn widening to a commanding lead in upper stretch winning as much the best. DAME MAUDE CHARDIN led early ceding on the backside chasing into upper stretch vying there a willing second best. WORLDLY BEAUTY slow early rallied to upper stretch finishing evenly. CARLOTUK slow early improved modestly on the rail. CLOUDY BAY rushed clear on the backside would wear out. SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH folded up after a half mile.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS — the sole model overlay is the favorite; no non-chalk horse at a usable number · SHAPE Two-speed duel (#8 vs #4); pace-pressured map favors stalkers; inside-rail and speed bias conflict with outside-heavy field · CHALK #6 LAMPORGHINI · solid-but-short · class drop with best fig, rising cycle, boxed last time — rightful ML favorite at 2-1

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-16 MNR R1 pass_ok · winner #6 LAMPORGHINI @ 0.4 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R2#4 Lu's Redemption · 0.90-1play floorWATCHRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 24.73 · 49.18 · 1:14.86 · Final 1:43.04

Splits (24:45) (25:68) (28:18)

PgmHorseCalls
4Lu's Redemption4 · 36 · 34 · 1Head · 13 · 17
2Datttsafancyfox1 · 14 · 13 · 2Head · 23 · 27
11Completely Elegant3 · 47 · 44 · 32 · 45 · 37 · 1/4
1Redwhiteandtacos2 · 24 · 23 · 42 · 1/2 · 34 · 1/2 · 49 · 1/4
8Shotgun Margaret5 · 57 · 55 · 56 · 1/2 · 59 · 511

LU'S REDEMPTION surged on the far turn drawing off down the lane under a drive. DATTTSAFANCYFOX set the pace being hooked on the far turn being dispatched down the stretch needing all to save place. COMPLETELY ELEGANT raced evenly rallying on the far turn vying for place down the lane. REDWHITEANDTACOS faded to upper stretch. SHOTGUN MARGARET was never involved.AN OBJECTION FROM THE RIDER OF DATTTSAFANCYFOX AGAINST THE RIDER OF LU'S REDEMPTION FOR INTERFERENCE ENETERING THE STRETCH WAS DISALLOWED.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #4 Lu's Redemption · close 0.90-1

  • LU'S REDEMPTION surged on the far turn drawing off down the lane under a drive.
  • DATTTSAFANCYFOX set the pace being hooked on the far turn being dispatched down the stretch needing all to save place.
  • COMPLETELY ELEGANT raced evenly rallying on the far turn vying for place down the lane.
  • REDWHITEANDTACOS faded to upper stretch.
  • SHOTGUN MARGARET was never involved.AN OBJECTION FROM THE RIDER OF DATTTSAFANCYFOX AGAINST THE RIDER OF LU'S REDEMPTION FOR INTERFERENCE ENETERING THE STRETCH WAS DISALLOWED.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
14Lu's Redemption0.90-10
22Datttsafancyfox11.3-10.3
311Completely Elegant3.50-12
41Redwhiteandtacos2.40-11.75
58Shotgun Margaret8.50-111
SCR—Black Bety——
SCR—Cole's Valentine——
SCR—Early Delivery——
SCR—Pageant Princess——
SCR—Snatched——
SCR—Verbal Geyser (FR)——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
#4 LUS REDEMPTION · win · minimum 4-1 (ML is 4; need tote confirmation — pass if board drifts shorter) · Died at the floor · board_inside_floor · floor
Price model
WATCH · #4 LUS REDEMPTION · edge — overlay was the official winner — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
LU'S REDEMPTION surged on the far turn drawing off down the lane under a drive. DATTTSAFANCYFOX set the pace being hooked on the far turn being dispatched down the stretch needing all to save place. COMPLETELY ELEGANT raced evenly rallying on the far turn vying for place down the lane. REDWHITEANDTACOS faded to upper stretch. SHOTGUN MARGARET was never involved.AN OBJECTION FROM THE RIDER OF DATTTSAFANCYFOX AGAINST THE RIDER OF LU'S REDEMPTION FOR INTERFERENCE ENETERING THE STRETCH WAS DISALLOWED.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY #4 LUS REDEMPTION · win · minimum 4-1 (ML is 4; need tote confirmation — pass if board drifts shorter) · SHAPE Wall of speed (#2 #1 #5) → honest/pressure pace; stalkers and closers get a setup in A and B; inside bias hurts deep closers from wide posts · CHALK #6 PAGEANT PRINCESS · usable but short (2-1 ML) · proven turf closer with rising figs and hidden-pace flag, but post 6 on an inside-bias track and a contested pace she must run through; shape is not squarely in her favor

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet floor_miss · floor · board_inside_floor · price model WATCH #4 LUS REDEMPTION · 2026-09-16 MNR R2 floor_miss · winner #4 LUS REDEMPTION @ 0.9 · overlay #4 LUS REDEMPTION edge 0.022 · PLAY floor #4 — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R3#8 Independent Streak · 2.70-1play passPASSRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.88 · 47.47 · 1:01.38 · Final 1:15.61

Splits (24:59) (13:91) (14:23)

PgmHorseCalls
8Independent Streak8 · 89 · 1/4 · 39 · 33 · 12 · 1/2
7Smart Little Lass9 · 912 · 1/4 · 818 · 1/2 · 87 · 1/2 · 22 · 1/2
6Hayami6 · 78 · 1/4 · 616 · 56 · 1/2 · 33 · 1/2
10Delightfulsuprise5 · 47 · 1/2 · 716 · 1/2 · 66 · 1/2 · 44 · 1/4
3Christina of Milan2 · 24 · 24 · 21 · 55
1Crafty Lawyer1 · 14 · 14 · 11 · 65 · 1/4
9Princess Ewuana3 · 37 · 515 · 77 · 710 · 1/4
4Brahmastra7 · 68 · 49 · 44 · 1/2 · 813 · 1/4
5Brand New Dance4 · 58 · 919 · 913 · 1/2 · 913 · 3/4

INDEPENDENT STREAK raced evenly rallying in mid stretch surging clear four wide. SMART LITTLE LASS slow early lost ground to upper stretch coming on late six wide. HAYAMI raced inside rallying to upper stretch finishing well. DELIGHTFULSUPRISE raced evenly gaining some late. CHRISTINA OF MILAN chased into upper stretch wearing out inside. CRAFTY LAWYER broke sharply setting a clear pace through the far turn faltering in upper stretch. PRINCESS EWUANA weakened on the turn. BRAHMASTRA raced evenly fading down the lane. BRAND NEW DANCE was always outrun.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #8 Independent Streak · close 2.70-1

  • INDEPENDENT STREAK raced evenly rallying in mid stretch surging clear four wide.
  • SMART LITTLE LASS slow early lost ground to upper stretch coming on late six wide.
  • HAYAMI raced inside rallying to upper stretch finishing well.
  • DELIGHTFULSUPRISE raced evenly gaining some late.
  • CHRISTINA OF MILAN chased into upper stretch wearing out inside.
  • CRAFTY LAWYER broke sharply setting a clear pace through the far turn faltering in upper stretch.
  • PRINCESS EWUANA weakened on the turn.
  • BRAHMASTRA raced evenly fading down the lane.
  • BRAND NEW DANCE was always outrun.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
18Independent Streak2.70-10
27Smart Little Lass8.70-11
36Hayami2.10-10.75
410Delightfulsuprise22.1-10.75
53Christina of Milan12.3-10.3
61Crafty Lawyer3.30-15
79Princess Ewuana8.90-13
84Brahmastra36.8-10.5
95Brand New Dance23.2-113.75
SCR—Elmigdar——
SCR—Fearless Faith——
SCR—Hot Cocoa——
SCR—Thy Name Is Woman——
SCR—Whatthecatdraggdin——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS · Pass held · pass
Price model
PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
INDEPENDENT STREAK raced evenly rallying in mid stretch surging clear four wide. SMART LITTLE LASS slow early lost ground to upper stretch coming on late six wide. HAYAMI raced inside rallying to upper stretch finishing well. DELIGHTFULSUPRISE raced evenly gaining some late. CHRISTINA OF MILAN chased into upper stretch wearing out inside. CRAFTY LAWYER broke sharply setting a clear pace through the far turn faltering in upper stretch. PRINCESS EWUANA weakened on the turn. BRAHMASTRA raced evenly fading down the lane. BRAND NEW DANCE was always outrun.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Two-EP duel (#3/#8) sets up stalkers/pressers; speed bias favors inside posts; high volatility · CHALK #6 HAYAMI · fade · post 6 closer on a speed-biased rail track, flat turf fig 57, no ready flags

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-16 MNR R3 pass_ok · winner #8 INDEPENDENT STREAK @ 2.7 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R4#8 Unworkable · 2-1play passPASSRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.33 · 46.39 · Final 59.59

Splits (24:06) (13:20)

PgmHorseCalls
8Unworkable2 · 1Head · 11 · 13 · 13
10Johnnyfrenchfri4 · 41 · 1/2 · 21 · 23 · 23
9Pallino3 · 31/2 · 41 · 1/4 · 45 · 33 · 1/4
7Mac Daddy5 · 76 · 3/4 · 74 · 3/4 · 55 · 1/4 · 44 · 1/2
6More Love1 · 2Head · 31 · 33 · 56
4Lil Red Beaudette6 · 64 · 3/4 · 54 · 1/4 · 66 · 1/4 · 66 · 3/4
1El Dandi7 · 54 · 1/2 · 64 · 1/4 · 77 · 1/4 · 78 · 1/2

UNWORKABLE pressed clear on the turn widening on the inside in upper stretch holding firm to wire. JOHNNYFRENCHFRI chased the pace extending through the lane salvaging place. PALLINO pressed and chased to upper stretch battling on from mid track. MAC DADDY slow early rallied wide down the lane. MORE LOVE pressed then chased to upper stretch weakening late. LIL RED BEAUDETTE played no factor. EL DANDI bobbled missing the break.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #8 Unworkable · close 2-1

  • UNWORKABLE pressed clear on the turn widening on the inside in upper stretch holding firm to wire.
  • JOHNNYFRENCHFRI chased the pace extending through the lane salvaging place.
  • PALLINO pressed and chased to upper stretch battling on from mid track.
  • MAC DADDY slow early rallied wide down the lane.
  • MORE LOVE pressed then chased to upper stretch weakening late.
  • LIL RED BEAUDETTE played no factor.
  • EL DANDI bobbled missing the break.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
18Unworkable2-10
210Johnnyfrenchfri6.10-10.3
39Pallino15.0-11.25
47Mac Daddy3.90-11.5
56More Love11.9-10.75
64Lil Red Beaudette10.4-11.75
71El Dandi2.20-18.5
SCR—Button Box——
SCR—Transactional Guy——
SCR—Wrote in Stone——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS · Pass held · pass
Price model
PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
UNWORKABLE pressed clear on the turn widening on the inside in upper stretch holding firm to wire. JOHNNYFRENCHFRI chased the pace extending through the lane salvaging place. PALLINO pressed and chased to upper stretch battling on from mid track. MAC DADDY slow early rallied wide down the lane. MORE LOVE pressed then chased to upper stretch weakening late. LIL RED BEAUDETTE played no factor. EL DANDI bobbled missing the break.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Wall of early speed (#3 #1 #8 #6 #5) → honest-to-pressure pace; bias favors inside early; closers need scenario C to fire · CHALK #3 BUTTON BOX · usable but short · 2-1, turf winner here but last start was a dirt fade, returning 2nd off layoff with a fig dip (78→70); pace shape may compress rather than free him

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-16 MNR R4 pass_ok · winner #8 UNWORKABLE @ 2 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R5#7 Outkissed · 1.70-1play passPASSRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 22.50 · 46.40 · 59.30 · Final 1:06.35

Splits (23:90) (12:90) (7:05)

PgmHorseCalls
7Outkissed1 · 11 · 11/2 · 14 · 13
3Game Boy Benny3 · 53 · 1/2 · 54 · 1/2 · 47 · 23
2Hoylake5 · 32 · 1/2 · 42 · 1/2 · 34 · 33 · 1/4
8Trikitraki2 · 21 · 21/2 · 24 · 44 · 1/4
4Stormy Hollow4 · 43 · 1/2 · 32 · 57 · 1/4 · 59 · 1/4

OUTKISSED set a pressured pace through the turn shaking clear in upper stretch holding safe to wire. GAME BOY BENNY lagged through the turn finding a late rally to get up for place. HOYLAKE tracked the pace vying willingly through the lane. TRIKITRAKI pressed the pace through the turn weakening the final eighth. STORMY HOLLOW chased through the turn weakening in upper stretch.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #7 Outkissed · close 1.70-1

  • OUTKISSED set a pressured pace through the turn shaking clear in upper stretch holding safe to wire.
  • GAME BOY BENNY lagged through the turn finding a late rally to get up for place.
  • HOYLAKE tracked the pace vying willingly through the lane.
  • TRIKITRAKI pressed the pace through the turn weakening the final eighth.
  • STORMY HOLLOW chased through the turn weakening in upper stretch.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
17Outkissed1.70-10
23Game Boy Benny6.70-10.3
32Hoylake1.20-11
48Trikitraki4.70-15
54Stormy Hollow9.90-19.25
SCR—Hero's Man——
SCR—Poppy's Pride——
SCR—S S Trackside Fun——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS — the only model overlay is the chalk; no priceable non-chalk overlay exists · Pass held · pass
Price model
PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
OUTKISSED set a pressured pace through the turn shaking clear in upper stretch holding safe to wire. GAME BOY BENNY lagged through the turn finding a late rally to get up for place. HOYLAKE tracked the pace vying willingly through the lane. TRIKITRAKI pressed the pace through the turn weakening the final eighth. STORMY HOLLOW chased through the turn weakening in upper stretch.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS — the only model overlay is the chalk; no priceable non-chalk overlay exists · SHAPE Wall of early speed / pressers — extreme pressure duel favors the two closers; speed and inside bias is a complication for wide EP types · CHALK #7 OUTKISSED · solid but short · back-to-back wins, best figs on the sheet, but overlaid onto the pace map with a post-7 disadvantage vs the inside rail bias and no price

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-16 MNR R5 pass_ok · winner #7 OUTKISSED @ 1.7 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R6#5 Captain Anne · 3.40-1play passPASSRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 23.25 · 47.97 · 1:01.32 · Final 1:15.22

Splits (24:72) (13:35) (13:90)

PgmHorseCalls
5Captain Anne2 · 55 · 1/2 · 2Head · 2Head · 13/4
6Vingativa4 · 42 · 1/2 · 51 · 1/4 · 53/4 · 23/4
4Ashlee's Ring1 · 11/2 · 1Head · 1Head · 31
7Tator Made3 · 21/2 · 43/4 · 43/4 · 42 · 1/2
1In to the Night6 · 68 · 1/2 · 67 · 1/4 · 63 · 3/4 · 54 · 3/4
3Stolen Kisses5 · 31 · 31/2 · 31/2 · 66

CAPTAIN ANNE rallied on the turn looming from mid track down the lane surging up in the final yards. VINGATIVA hustled along bid six wide down the lane surging late. ASHLEE'S RING pressed on lead dueled into then down the lane ceding grudgingly in the last yards. TATOR MADE pressed the pace extending to upper stretch being out finished on the inside. IN TO THE NIGHT a step slow early failed to menace. STOLEN KISSES pressed through the turn into upper stretch weakening late. AN OBJECTION FROM THE RIDER OF VINGATIVA AGAINST THE RIDER OF CAPTAIN ANNE FOR INTERFERENCE ON THE TURN WAS DISALLOWED.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #5 Captain Anne · close 3.40-1

  • CAPTAIN ANNE rallied on the turn looming from mid track down the lane surging up in the final yards.
  • VINGATIVA hustled along bid six wide down the lane surging late.
  • ASHLEE'S RING pressed on lead dueled into then down the lane ceding grudgingly in the last yards.
  • TATOR MADE pressed the pace extending to upper stretch being out finished on the inside.
  • IN TO THE NIGHT a step slow early failed to menace.
  • STOLEN KISSES pressed through the turn into upper stretch weakening late. AN OBJECTION FROM THE RIDER OF VINGATIVA AGAINST THE RIDER OF CAPTAIN ANNE FOR INTERFERENCE ON THE TURN WAS DISALLOWED.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
15Captain Anne3.40-10
26Vingativa1.50-10.3
34Ashlee's Ring2.60-11.5
47Tator Made4.50-12.25
51In to the Night9.30-11.25
63Stolen Kisses19.0-16
SCR—Harlan's Legacy——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS · Pass held · pass
Price model
PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
CAPTAIN ANNE rallied on the turn looming from mid track down the lane surging up in the final yards. VINGATIVA hustled along bid six wide down the lane surging late. ASHLEE'S RING pressed on lead dueled into then down the lane ceding grudgingly in the last yards. TATOR MADE pressed the pace extending to upper stretch being out finished on the inside. IN TO THE NIGHT a step slow early failed to menace. STOLEN KISSES pressed through the turn into upper stretch weakening late. AN OBJECTION FROM THE RIDER OF VINGATIVA AGAINST THE RIDER OF CAPTAIN ANNE FOR INTERFERENCE ON THE TURN WAS DISALLOWED.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Lone speed #4 ASHLEES RING, wall of closers — pace favors the front; inside-rail bias amplifies it · CHALK #5 CAPTAIN ANNE · ML 2.5 · short but opposable — she's a closer with a negative zPace in a shape that rewards the lone speed; 3rd-start cycle rising figs are real, but she needs the pace to melt and it likely won't

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-16 MNR R6 pass_ok · winner #5 CAPTAIN ANNE @ 3.4 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R7#6 Atkins · 2-1play passPASSRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 24.30 · 48.01 · 1:13.73 · Final 1:41.89

Splits (23:71) (25:72) (28:16)

PgmHorseCalls
6Atkins5 · 21 · 41 · 1/4 · 2Head · 11 · 12
2Afraidofthebunny3 · 52 · 1/4 · 53 · 1/4 · 54 · 31 · 22
1Boldness1 · 64 · 1/4 · 63 · 3/4 · 43 · 1/2 · 55 · 1/2 · 33 · 1/4
3Tricky Tiger6 · 42 · 1Head · 31/2 · 21 · 411 · 1/4
4Force of Justice4 · 31 · 2Head · 1Head · 45 · 516 · 3/4
5Magic Mover2 · 11 · 3Head · 611 · 619 · 1/2 · 627 · 1/4

ATKINS stalked the pace pressing clear in upper stretch digging in late. AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY raced evenly rallying in upper stretch coming on to save place. BOLDNESS slow early gave a mild rally to upper stretch finishing well. TRICKY TIGER gave a middle move pressing through the far turn weakening in upper stretch. FORCE OF JUSTICE gave a middle move pressing through the far turn fading in upper stretch. MAGIC MOVER pressed the pace then wilted after a half mile.

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #6 Atkins · close 2-1

  • ATKINS stalked the pace pressing clear in upper stretch digging in late.
  • AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY raced evenly rallying in upper stretch coming on to save place.
  • BOLDNESS slow early gave a mild rally to upper stretch finishing well.
  • TRICKY TIGER gave a middle move pressing through the far turn weakening in upper stretch.
  • FORCE OF JUSTICE gave a middle move pressing through the far turn fading in upper stretch.
  • MAGIC MOVER pressed the pace then wilted after a half mile.
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
16Atkins2-10
22Afraidofthebunny5.60-11.25
31Boldness10.3-18
43Tricky Tiger12.8-15.5
54Force of Justice1-110.5
65Magic Mover10.0-127.25

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS · Pass held · pass
Price model
PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
ATKINS stalked the pace pressing clear in upper stretch digging in late. AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY raced evenly rallying in upper stretch coming on to save place. BOLDNESS slow early gave a mild rally to upper stretch finishing well. TRICKY TIGER gave a middle move pressing through the far turn weakening in upper stretch. FORCE OF JUSTICE gave a middle move pressing through the far turn fading in upper stretch. MAGIC MOVER pressed the pace then wilted after a half mile.

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS · SHAPE Wall of early speed (#4 #1 #5); speed/inside bias amplifies chalk; duel likely compresses the field into A/B scenario benefiting stalkers, but no non-chalk stalker has the fig or class profile to exploit it · CHALK #4 FORCE OF JUSTICE (ML 1.2) — solid; rising figs, proven at this trip and track, pace-map leader, bias aligned

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-16 MNR R7 pass_ok · winner #6 ATKINS @ 2 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R8#4 Shukran · 2.60-1play passWATCHRace →

1. How it ran

Equibase, not Closebeat.

Fractions 24.30 · 48.83 · 1:15.38 · Final 1:45.07

Splits (24:53) (26:55) (29:69)

PgmHorseCalls
4Shukran1 · 2Head · 11 · 13 · 14 · 12 · 3/4
8Handsome Fox5 · 43 · 61 · 3/4 · 23 · 24 · 22 · 3/4
6State of Attack6 · 75 · 1/4 · 75 · 3/4 · 68 · 510 · 34 · 1/2
3Hidden Favor4 · 53 · 1/4 · 21 · 34 · 36 · 46 · 1/2
5Lao Way7 · 65 · 1/4 · 51 · 3/4 · 56 · 49 · 56 · 1/2
7Mexicali Mike2 · 31 · 31 · 44 · 610 · 1/2 · 619 · 1/4
2Candy Connection3 · 1Head · 41 · 1/4 · 723 · 728 · 1/2 · 753 · 1/2

SHUKRAN pressed the pace shaking clear to upper stretch holding safe. HANDSOME FOX well rated rallied to upper stretch being held at bay late. STATE OF ATTACK lagged to upper stretch responding there to finish well. HIDDEN FAVOR gave a middle move then weakened to upper stretch. LAO WAY played no factor. MEXICALI MIKE stalked early tiring on the far turn. CANDY CONNECTION hustled early was used up after a half. Total Attendance: 0 Handle: $1,245,243

2. How it was won / lost

Facts from the chart. No second story.

Winner #4 Shukran · close 2.60-1

  • SHUKRAN pressed the pace shaking clear to upper stretch holding safe.
  • HANDSOME FOX well rated rallied to upper stretch being held at bay late.
  • STATE OF ATTACK lagged to upper stretch responding there to finish well.
  • HIDDEN FAVOR gave a middle move then weakened to upper stretch.
  • LAO WAY played no factor.
  • MEXICALI MIKE stalked early tiring on the far turn.
  • CANDY CONNECTION hustled early was used up after a half. Total Attendance: 0 Handle: $1,245,243
FinPgmHorseCloseBL
14Shukran2.60-10
28Handsome Fox2.20-11.75
36State of Attack4.50-12
43Hidden Favor5.10-10.2
55Lao Way18.4-112.75
67Mexicali Mike3.80-134.25
72Candy Connection35.0-153.5
SCR—Scuba——

3. How this system treated it

Card review. Isolated. No authority.

Sheet
PASS — #6 STATE OF ATTACK holds the only model overlay but the edge is thin (0.023), the path depends on a duel that the pace map says is unlikely in scenario A, and post 8 bias (0% wins posts 8+) actively hurts the only horse worth keying; no non-chalk horse clears both a pace path and a meaningful price threshold · Pass held · pass
Price model
WATCH · #6 STATE OF ATTACK · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
Book
none

4. What we keep

  • Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
  • How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
  • This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.

5. Chart note

Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.

CHART — Equibase footnotes:
SHUKRAN pressed the pace shaking clear to upper stretch holding safe. HANDSOME FOX well rated rallied to upper stretch being held at bay late. STATE OF ATTACK lagged to upper stretch responding there to finish well. HIDDEN FAVOR gave a middle move then weakened to upper stretch. LAO WAY played no factor. MEXICALI MIKE stalked early tiring on the far turn. CANDY CONNECTION hustled early was used up after a half.

 Total Attendance: 0 Handle: $1,245,243

SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK:
PLAY PASS — #6 STATE OF ATTACK holds the only model overlay but the edge is thin (0.023), the path depends on a duel that the pace map says is unlikely in scenario A, and post 8 bias (0% wins posts 8+) actively hurts the only horse worth keying; no non-chalk horse clears both a pace path and a meaningful price threshold · SHAPE No dedicated early speed; crawl likely; pressers lead but no one needs the front — stalkers and closers need a contested pace that may never materialize; post 8 bias concern for chalk · CHALK #8 HANDSOME FOX · solid · best recent figures, sharp class drop, tactical P style fits the pace vacuum, but post 8 is 0-for in the bias sample and last race was "Tired"

CARD REVIEW — then-active notice:
sheet pass_correct · pass · price model WATCH #6 STATE OF ATTACK · 2026-09-16 MNR R8 overlay_miss · winner #4 SHUKRAN @ 2.6 · overlay #6 STATE OF ATTACK edge 0.023 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use

KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.