TDN · 2026-09-14
Chart replay. Equibase tells what happened. Card review tells what we did. Overlay stays frozen.
Official chart Equibase · parser 1.2.0 · checksum 5670d427c2b7f3dc · us_mutuel_to_one
R1#6 Holidays Army Brat · 0.40-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.94 · 46.78 · 59.60 · Final 1:12.92
Splits (23:84) (12:82) (13:32)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Holidays Army Brat | 2 · 11/2 · 11/2 · 14 · 11/2 |
| 2 | Cat's Cradle | 5 · 32 · 33 · 34 · 1/2 · 21/2 |
| 5 | Nancyfromtheblock | 6 · 78 · 1/2 · 58 · 1/2 · 45 · 1/2 · 33 · 1/2 |
| 1 | Thebeesenvyme | 8 · 54 · 48 · 59 · 1/2 · 45 · 1/4 |
| 7 | Special Collette | 3 · 21/2 · 21/2 · 24 · 57 |
| 3 | Faithful Solution | 7 · 812 · 812 · 1/2 · 715 · 68 |
| 4 | Count On Me | 4 · 64 · 79 · 1/2 · 613 · 1/2 · 711 |
| 8 | Midnight Driven | 1 · 42 · 1/2 · 68 · 1/2 · 821 · 825 |
HOLIDAYS ARMY BRAT made the lead quickly, set a pressured pace into the stretch, sook clear under right handed urging before the furlong marker and lasted under confident handling. CAT'S CRADLE stalked the pace into the stretch, swung out to the six path and was steadily gaining on the winner late. NANCYFROMTHEBLOCK unhurried early, found her best stride late rail along the rail. THEBEESENVYME went evenly. SPECIAL COLLETTE pressured the winner two wide into the stretch then weakened. FAITHFUL SOLUTION was outrun. COUNT ON ME was no factor. MIDNIGHT DRIVEN flashed speed, stopped and jogged to the wire.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #6 Holidays Army Brat · close 0.40-1
- HOLIDAYS ARMY BRAT made the lead quickly, set a pressured pace into the stretch, sook clear under right handed urging before the furlong marker and lasted under confident handling.
- CAT'S CRADLE stalked the pace into the stretch, swung out to the six path and was steadily gaining on the winner late.
- NANCYFROMTHEBLOCK unhurried early, found her best stride late rail along the rail.
- THEBEESENVYME went evenly.
- SPECIAL COLLETTE pressured the winner two wide into the stretch then weakened.
- FAITHFUL SOLUTION was outrun.
- COUNT ON ME was no factor.
- MIDNIGHT DRIVEN flashed speed, stopped and jogged to the wire.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Holidays Army Brat | 0.40-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | Cat's Cradle | 2.80-1 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | Nancyfromtheblock | 47.0-1 | 1.75 |
| 4 | 1 | Thebeesenvyme | 14.6-1 | 1.75 |
| 5 | 7 | Special Collette | 17.4-1 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | Faithful Solution | 78.3-1 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | Count On Me | 104.6-1 | 14 |
| 8 | 8 | Midnight Driven | 8.80-1 | 25 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: HOLIDAYS ARMY BRAT made the lead quickly, set a pressured pace into the stretch, sook clear under right handed urging before the furlong marker and lasted under confident handling. CAT'S CRADLE stalked the pace into the stretch, swung out to the six path and was steadily gaining on the winner late. NANCYFROMTHEBLOCK unhurried early, found her best stride late rail along the rail. THEBEESENVYME went evenly. SPECIAL COLLETTE pressured the winner two wide into the stretch then weakened. FAITHFUL SOLUTION was outrun. COUNT ON ME was no factor. MIDNIGHT DRIVEN flashed speed, stopped and jogged to the wire. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Lone-to-light-pressure speed map; chalk presser likely controls; inside bias favors posts 1–3; post 8 historically dead · CHALK #6 HOLIDAYS ARMY BRAT (ML 2) · opposable on class-drop optics but solid on pace path and figures; #2 CATS CRADLE (ML 2.5) · fade — collapsing figs, negative edge, came from 75k stakes and stopped badly CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 TDN R1 pass_ok · winner #6 HOLIDAYS ARMY BRAT @ 0.4 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R2#3 Anicetta · 2.90-1play passWATCHRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 23.92 · 48.48 · 1:01.36 · Final 1:08.02
Splits (24:56) (12:88) (6:66)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Anicetta | 4 · 11 · 11 · 14 · 14 |
| 9 | Pleasure Pearl | 3 · 21 · 21 · 24 · 24 |
| 4 | Almost Drilled | 6 · 53 · 33 · 37 · 35 · 3/4 |
| 10 | Oak Mirna | 1 · 43 · 43 · 59 · 45 · 3/4 |
| 7 | Mo Don't Stop | 2 · 31 · 1/2 · 53 · 1/4 · 47 · 1/2 · 56 · 1/2 |
| 6 | Mobil Truth | 7 · 65 · 68 · 1/4 · 612 · 67 · 1/2 |
| 1 | Chick With a Drill | 10 · 85 · 3/4 · 810 · 3/4 · 714 · 712 · 1/4 |
| 2 | Destiny's Tot | 8 · 99 · 3/4 · 911 · 1/4 · 817 · 813 · 3/4 |
| 8 | Team Chiquita | 5 · 75 · 1/2 · 78 · 1/4 · 917 · 914 · 1/2 |
| 5 | Machiko | 9 · 1012 · 3/4 · 1015 · 1/4 · 1024 · 1026 · 3/4 |
ANICETTA sprinted to the front soon after the start, set all the pace, widened into the stretch under left handed urging and was kept to task. PLEASURE PEARL pressured the winner two wide into the stretch and finished second best. ALMOST DRILLED raced two then three wide and went evenly. OAK MIRNA settled four wide and turned in an even effort. MO DON'T STOP chased the pace along the inside and failed to respond. MOBIL TRUTH had no impact. CHICK WITH A DRILL stumbled at the start and was never involved. DESTINY'S TOT was no factor. TEAM CHIQUITA was no threat. MACHIKO trailed.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #3 Anicetta · close 2.90-1
- ANICETTA sprinted to the front soon after the start, set all the pace, widened into the stretch under left handed urging and was kept to task.
- PLEASURE PEARL pressured the winner two wide into the stretch and finished second best.
- ALMOST DRILLED raced two then three wide and went evenly.
- OAK MIRNA settled four wide and turned in an even effort.
- MO DON'T STOP chased the pace along the inside and failed to respond.
- MOBIL TRUTH had no impact.
- CHICK WITH A DRILL stumbled at the start and was never involved.
- DESTINY'S TOT was no factor.
- TEAM CHIQUITA was no threat.
- MACHIKO trailed.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Anicetta | 2.90-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 9 | Pleasure Pearl | 3.60-1 | 1.75 |
| 3 | 4 | Almost Drilled | 47.6-1 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 10 | Oak Mirna | 10.4-1 | 0.75 |
| 5 | 7 | Mo Don't Stop | 2.50-1 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mobil Truth | 17.8-1 | 4.75 |
| 7 | 1 | Chick With a Drill | 3.80-1 | 1.5 |
| 8 | 2 | Destiny's Tot | 23.7-1 | 13.75 |
| 9 | 8 | Team Chiquita | 41.4-1 | 12.25 |
| 10 | 5 | Machiko | 25.3-1 | 26.75 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS — the only overlay is undermined by a structural post-position kill against a documented inside bias; no non-chalk horse earns a play · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- WATCH · #9 PLEASURE PEARL · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: ANICETTA sprinted to the front soon after the start, set all the pace, widened into the stretch under left handed urging and was kept to task. PLEASURE PEARL pressured the winner two wide into the stretch and finished second best. ALMOST DRILLED raced two then three wide and went evenly. OAK MIRNA settled four wide and turned in an even effort. MO DON'T STOP chased the pace along the inside and failed to respond. MOBIL TRUTH had no impact. CHICK WITH A DRILL stumbled at the start and was never involved. DESTINY'S TOT was no factor. TEAM CHIQUITA was no threat. MACHIKO trailed. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS — the only overlay is undermined by a structural post-position kill against a documented inside bias; no non-chalk horse earns a play · SHAPE Lone speed (#7 EP) into a bias that rewards early and inside; closers from wide posts face a structural wall · CHALK #7 MO DONT STOP · solid · pace, bias, class drop, rising fig all aligned — just unplayable at 2-1/2 CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model WATCH #9 PLEASURE PEARL · 2026-09-14 TDN R2 overlay_miss · winner #3 ANICETTA @ 2.9 · overlay #9 PLEASURE PEARL edge 0.027 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R3#6 Michelle My Belle · 1.40-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.52 · 46.32 · 59.28 · Final 1:12.84
Splits (23:80) (12:96) (13:56)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Michelle My Belle | 2 · 1Head · 11 · 1/2 · 11 · 11 · 3/4 |
| 3 | Chestnut Queen | 3 · 31 · 21 · 1/2 · 21 · 21 · 3/4 |
| 4 | Bea Bold | 4 · 43 · 1/2 · 34 · 36 · 33 · 3/4 |
| 1 | Star Spangled | 1 · 2Head · 45 · 1/2 · 413 · 420 · 1/4 |
MICHELLE MY BELLE gained a narrow advantage before the half mile marker, shook clear before the turn, set the balance of the pace and maintained her advantage under left handed urging despite jumping a reflection from the photo finish mirror at the wire. CHESTNUT QUEEN bumped at the start, chase the pace two then three wide through the turn, moved closer in upper stretch and finished clear for second. BEA BOLD hopped then bumped at the start, saved ground through the turn, shifted out three wide in upper stretch and finished evenly. STAR SPANGLED bumped at the start, had a narrow early lead, pressed the pace early and was through after a half.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #6 Michelle My Belle · close 1.40-1
- MICHELLE MY BELLE gained a narrow advantage before the half mile marker, shook clear before the turn, set the balance of the pace and maintained her advantage under left handed urging despite jumping a reflection from the photo finish mirror at the wire.
- CHESTNUT QUEEN bumped at the start, chase the pace two then three wide through the turn, moved closer in upper stretch and finished clear for second.
- BEA BOLD hopped then bumped at the start, saved ground through the turn, shifted out three wide in upper stretch and finished evenly.
- STAR SPANGLED bumped at the start, had a narrow early lead, pressed the pace early and was through after a half.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Michelle My Belle | 1.40-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 3 | Chestnut Queen | 2.10-1 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | Bea Bold | 2.70-1 | 16.5 |
| 4 | 1 | Star Spangled | 3.30-1 | 20.25 |
| SCR | — | Bee Boppin | — | — |
| SCR | — | Box Office Hit | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: MICHELLE MY BELLE gained a narrow advantage before the half mile marker, shook clear before the turn, set the balance of the pace and maintained her advantage under left handed urging despite jumping a reflection from the photo finish mirror at the wire. CHESTNUT QUEEN bumped at the start, chase the pace two then three wide through the turn, moved closer in upper stretch and finished clear for second. BEA BOLD hopped then bumped at the start, saved ground through the turn, shifted out three wide in upper stretch and finished evenly. STAR SPANGLED bumped at the start, had a narrow early lead, pressed the pace early and was through after a half. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Modest pace — one E (#3) who wilts, one EP (#6) who faded badly last out; chalk is a closer who should inherit but is unsaleable at 2-1 · CHALK #2 Box Office Hit · solid but short · best figs in the field, cleanest closer path, correctly favorited — price is the only problem CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 TDN R3 pass_ok · winner #6 MICHELLE MY BELLE @ 1.4 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R4#5 Feeling Easy · 7.30-1play outBETRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 23.14 · 46.88 · 59.02 · Final 1:05.32
Splits (23:74) (12:14) (6:30)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Feeling Easy | 3 · 21 · 2Head · 11 · 14 · 3/4 |
| 1 | Amy's Star | 6 · 41 · 1/2 · 41 · 3/4 · 44 · 1/2 · 24 · 3/4 |
| 4 | Quick Rendezvous | 4 · 11 · 1Head · 21 · 34 · 3/4 |
| 2 | Mobil Memory | 5 · 53 · 52 · 3/4 · 54 · 1/2 · 46 |
| 7 | Come On Arlene | 1 · 31 · 3Head · 33 · 56 · 1/4 |
| 6 | Commissioner D | 2 · 63 · 1/2 · 63 · 1/4 · 67 · 67 · 3/4 |
| 3 | Kettle Kiss | 7 · 76 · 1/2 · 78 · 1/4 · 711 · 710 · 3/4 |
FEELING EASY pressed the pace two wide through the turn, made the lead, responded full of run under left handed urging and won going away under a brisk hand ride. AMY'S STAR stalked the pace along the inside through the turn, altered course five wide at the top of the stretch then rallied for second. QUICK RENDEZVOUS set the pace along the inside to the top of the stretch then was outfinished. MOBIL MEMORY drifted out bumping with KETTLE KISS repeatedly soon after the start, settled two wide and went evenly. COME ON ARLENE stalked the early pace, bid three wide into the turn then came up empty in the drive. COMMISSIONER D raced four then five wide and failed to respond. KETTLE KISS was bumped repeatedly from her inside at the start and trailed.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #5 Feeling Easy · close 7.30-1
- FEELING EASY pressed the pace two wide through the turn, made the lead, responded full of run under left handed urging and won going away under a brisk hand ride.
- AMY'S STAR stalked the pace along the inside through the turn, altered course five wide at the top of the stretch then rallied for second.
- QUICK RENDEZVOUS set the pace along the inside to the top of the stretch then was outfinished.
- MOBIL MEMORY drifted out bumping with KETTLE KISS repeatedly soon after the start, settled two wide and went evenly.
- COME ON ARLENE stalked the early pace, bid three wide into the turn then came up empty in the drive.
- COMMISSIONER D raced four then five wide and failed to respond.
- KETTLE KISS was bumped repeatedly from her inside at the start and trailed.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Feeling Easy | 7.30-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | Amy's Star | 5.10-1 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | Quick Rendezvous | 18.6-1 | 1.25 |
| 4 | 2 | Mobil Memory | 38.3-1 | 0.05 |
| 5 | 7 | Come On Arlene | 1.20-1 | 1.5 |
| 6 | 6 | Commissioner D | 2-1 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | Kettle Kiss | 11.2-1 | 10.75 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- #7 Come On Arlene · win · minimum 5-2 (ML is 3; if board drifts shorter, pass) · PLAY out · play_out · out
- Price model
- BET · #7 COME ON ARLENE · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: FEELING EASY pressed the pace two wide through the turn, made the lead, responded full of run under left handed urging and won going away under a brisk hand ride. AMY'S STAR stalked the pace along the inside through the turn, altered course five wide at the top of the stretch then rallied for second. QUICK RENDEZVOUS set the pace along the inside to the top of the stretch then was outfinished. MOBIL MEMORY drifted out bumping with KETTLE KISS repeatedly soon after the start, settled two wide and went evenly. COME ON ARLENE stalked the early pace, bid three wide into the turn then came up empty in the drive. COMMISSIONER D raced four then five wide and failed to respond. KETTLE KISS was bumped repeatedly from her inside at the start and trailed. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY #7 Come On Arlene · win · minimum 5-2 (ML is 3; if board drifts shorter, pass) · SHAPE Soft pace (EP/P types from inside posts, closer-heavy field) with inside rail bias favoring stalkers/pressers who can clear early · CHALK #6 Commissioner D · fade · negative model edge (-0.025), flat recent figs (67), closer style needs pace it may not get, zForm and zPace both negative CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet play_out · out · play_out · price model BET #7 COME ON ARLENE · 2026-09-14 TDN R4 overlay_miss · winner #5 FEELING EASY @ 7.3 · overlay #7 COME ON ARLENE edge 0.078 · PLAY out #7 — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R5#6 Seyval Blanc · 6.10-1play floorBETRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 23.10 · 47.02 · 59.64 · Final 1:06.28
Splits (23:92) (12:62) (6:64)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Seyval Blanc | 2 · 21 · 1/2 · 21 · 1/2 · 11 · 13 · 1/2 |
| 5 | Calling Tillie | 4 · 64 · 1/2 · 44 · 1/2 · 48 · 23 · 1/2 |
| 7 | Tier Ones Legacy | 1 · 42 · 31 · 1/2 · 35 · 33 · 3/4 |
| 3 | Rapida | 5 · 78 · 1/2 · 77 · 1/2 · 511 · 43 · 3/4 |
| 2 | Renewed | 6 · 11 · 1/2 · 11 · 1/2 · 21 · 54 |
| 1 | Bobber's Rocket | 7 · 53 · 1/2 · 67 · 613 · 67 · 3/4 |
| 4 | Windy Valley | 3 · 32 · 55 · 1/2 · 719 · 727 · 1/4 |
SEYVAL BLANC pressed the pace three wide through the turn, made the lead entering the stretch, responded full of run under left handed urging and won going away. CALLING TILLIE allowed to settle, swung wide, rallied four wide through deep stretch and got up for second. TIER ONES LEGACY vied for the lead four then three wide and finished determinedly. RAPIDA trailed into the stretch, swung wide and closed a gap late in the middle of the racetrack. RENEWED rushed to the front soon after the start, set the pace along the inside for three and one half furlongs then was outfinished. BOBBER'S ROCKET failed to menace. WINDY VALLEY had speed between horses two wide into the turn then stopped.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #6 Seyval Blanc · close 6.10-1
- SEYVAL BLANC pressed the pace three wide through the turn, made the lead entering the stretch, responded full of run under left handed urging and won going away.
- CALLING TILLIE allowed to settle, swung wide, rallied four wide through deep stretch and got up for second.
- TIER ONES LEGACY vied for the lead four then three wide and finished determinedly.
- RAPIDA trailed into the stretch, swung wide and closed a gap late in the middle of the racetrack.
- RENEWED rushed to the front soon after the start, set the pace along the inside for three and one half furlongs then was outfinished.
- BOBBER'S ROCKET failed to menace.
- WINDY VALLEY had speed between horses two wide into the turn then stopped.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Seyval Blanc | 6.10-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 5 | Calling Tillie | 3.60-1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 7 | Tier Ones Legacy | 4.70-1 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3 | Rapida | 5.10-1 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 2 | Renewed | 1.10-1 | 3.75 |
| 6 | 1 | Bobber's Rocket | 18.2-1 | 19.5 |
| 7 | 4 | Windy Valley | 52.0-1 | 27.25 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- #2 RENEWED · min 3-1 · win · Died at the floor · board_inside_floor · floor
- Price model
- BET · #2 RENEWED · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: SEYVAL BLANC pressed the pace three wide through the turn, made the lead entering the stretch, responded full of run under left handed urging and won going away. CALLING TILLIE allowed to settle, swung wide, rallied four wide through deep stretch and got up for second. TIER ONES LEGACY vied for the lead four then three wide and finished determinedly. RAPIDA trailed into the stretch, swung wide and closed a gap late in the middle of the racetrack. RENEWED rushed to the front soon after the start, set the pace along the inside for three and one half furlongs then was outfinished. BOBBER'S ROCKET failed to menace. WINDY VALLEY had speed between horses two wide into the turn then stopped. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY #2 RENEWED · min 3-1 · win · SHAPE Lone early speed (#2) into a stalker/closer field on a speed-and-rail-biased track — A scenario strongly favors the front-runner · CHALK #3 RAPIDA · fade · closer dropping from allowance with collapsing figs and an "eased" last start; shape is dead against it CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet floor_miss · floor · board_inside_floor · price model BET #2 RENEWED · 2026-09-14 TDN R5 floor_miss · winner #6 SEYVAL BLANC @ 6.1 · overlay #2 RENEWED edge 0.062 · PLAY floor #2 — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R6#1 Patriarchal · 0.70-1play outWATCHRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 24.46 · 48.14 · 1:12.76 · Final 1:39.22
Splits (23:68) (24:62) (26:46)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriarchal | 5 · 64 · 1/4 · 65 · 3/4 · 66 · 1/4 · 53 · 3/4 · 14 |
| 8 | Skibidi Rizz | 1 · 21 · 21 · 1Head · 1Head · 24 |
| 3 | Sunset Town | 2 · 11 · 11 · 2Head · 2Head · 35 |
| 7 | Pace | 6 · 51 · 3/4 · 32 · 54 · 1/4 · 33 · 45 · 1/2 |
| 5 | Florida Gator | 4 · 31 · 52 · 1/4 · 44 · 1/4 · 43 · 1/4 · 58 · 1/2 |
| 2 | Sudden Shift | 3 · 41 · 1/4 · 42 · 34 · 64 · 1/4 · 610 · 3/4 |
| 4 | Remember the Fear | 7 · 75 · 1/4 · 77 · 1/4 · 76 · 3/4 · 77 · 3/4 · 711 · 1/2 |
PATRIARCHAL raced along the inside into the far turn, altered course sharply four wide in upper stretch then closed with a rushed inside the eighth pole to make the lead in deep stretch and burst clear. SKIBIDI RIZZ pressed the pace two wide into the far turn, gained a narrow lead, battled until deep stretch then was no match for the winner. SUNSET TOWN set the pace along the inside for five and one half furlongs, dug in when headed, matched strides util the late stages and was outfinished in a game effort. PACE settled, moved close three wide after a half mile then failed to sustain that bid. FLORIDA GATOR was in tight between horses while two wide through the firs bend, had speed into the stretch then faded. SUDDEN SHIFT close up along the inside, weakened in the stretch. REMEMBER THE FEAR trailed.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #1 Patriarchal · close 0.70-1
- PATRIARCHAL raced along the inside into the far turn, altered course sharply four wide in upper stretch then closed with a rushed inside the eighth pole to make the lead in deep stretch and burst clear.
- SKIBIDI RIZZ pressed the pace two wide into the far turn, gained a narrow lead, battled until deep stretch then was no match for the winner.
- SUNSET TOWN set the pace along the inside for five and one half furlongs, dug in when headed, matched strides util the late stages and was outfinished in a game effort.
- PACE settled, moved close three wide after a half mile then failed to sustain that bid.
- FLORIDA GATOR was in tight between horses while two wide through the firs bend, had speed into the stretch then faded.
- SUDDEN SHIFT close up along the inside, weakened in the stretch.
- REMEMBER THE FEAR trailed.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Patriarchal | 0.70-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 8 | Skibidi Rizz | 12.9-1 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sunset Town | 5.30-1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 7 | Pace | 4.80-1 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | Florida Gator | 17.2-1 | 2.25 |
| 6 | 2 | Sudden Shift | 26.4-1 | 0.75 |
| 7 | 4 | Remember the Fear | 4.80-1 | 11.5 |
| SCR | — | John's Rock | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- #4 REMEMBER THE FEAR · min 3-1 · win · at 5-2 or shorter, PASS · PLAY out · chalk_not_opposable · out
- Price model
- WATCH · #4 REMEMBER THE FEAR · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: PATRIARCHAL raced along the inside into the far turn, altered course sharply four wide in upper stretch then closed with a rushed inside the eighth pole to make the lead in deep stretch and burst clear. SKIBIDI RIZZ pressed the pace two wide into the far turn, gained a narrow lead, battled until deep stretch then was no match for the winner. SUNSET TOWN set the pace along the inside for five and one half furlongs, dug in when headed, matched strides util the late stages and was outfinished in a game effort. PACE settled, moved close three wide after a half mile then failed to sustain that bid. FLORIDA GATOR was in tight between horses while two wide through the firs bend, had speed into the stretch then faded. SUDDEN SHIFT close up along the inside, weakened in the stretch. REMEMBER THE FEAR trailed. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY #4 REMEMBER THE FEAR · min 3-1 · win · at 5-2 or shorter, PASS · SHAPE Lone-speed E (#3) sets modest fractions; stalkers and closers tracking into a rail-biased stretch — speed and inside both live, deep closer depends on traffic opening · CHALK #1 PATRIARCHAL · short (2.5 ML) · solid form (fig 86, rising cycle, real class drop) but style is C from post 1 in a race where the bias rewards earlier runners — not a fade, just not a bet CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet play_out · out · chalk_not_opposable · price model WATCH #4 REMEMBER THE FEAR · 2026-09-14 TDN R6 overlay_miss · winner #1 PATRIARCHAL @ 0.7 · overlay #4 REMEMBER THE FEAR edge 0.022 · PLAY out #4 — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R7#7 Toastmaster · 1.70-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.86 · 46.22 · 58.62 · Final 1:11.08
Splits (23:36) (12:40) (12:46)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Toastmaster | 2 · 21/2 · 1Head · 1Head · 13/4 |
| 2 | Kissin Cash | 5 · 62 · 1/2 · 2Head · 2Head · 23/4 |
| 1 | Midnight Wonder | 6 · 31 · 32 · 32 · 33 · 1/4 |
| 4 | Officially Yours | 3 · 11/2 · 42 · 1/4 · 42 · 1/2 · 44 · 3/4 |
| 6 | Banana Pudding | 4 · 52 · 63 · 1/4 · 65 · 1/2 · 57 · 1/2 |
| 8 | Miesha | 1 · 41 · 52 · 1/4 · 55 · 69 · 1/4 |
TOASTMASTER pressed the early pace three wide, took over on the turn, set the balance of the pace under pressure and proved best in a stiff drive under left handed urging. KISSIN CASH was outside before a quarter mile, offered a strong bid late on the turn then couldn't get past the winner. MIDNIGHT WONDER had good early speed along the rail, lacked room nearing the turn and through the bend then finished determinedly once clear. OFFICIALLY YOURS set a pressured pace in the two path into the stretch, kept on into the stretch then faded while four wide. BANANA PUDDING close up early five wide, dropped back on the turn. MIESHA raced six then four wide and was through after a half.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #7 Toastmaster · close 1.70-1
- TOASTMASTER pressed the early pace three wide, took over on the turn, set the balance of the pace under pressure and proved best in a stiff drive under left handed urging.
- KISSIN CASH was outside before a quarter mile, offered a strong bid late on the turn then couldn't get past the winner.
- MIDNIGHT WONDER had good early speed along the rail, lacked room nearing the turn and through the bend then finished determinedly once clear.
- OFFICIALLY YOURS set a pressured pace in the two path into the stretch, kept on into the stretch then faded while four wide.
- BANANA PUDDING close up early five wide, dropped back on the turn.
- MIESHA raced six then four wide and was through after a half.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Toastmaster | 1.70-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | Kissin Cash | 1.10-1 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 1 | Midnight Wonder | 14.3-1 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 4 | Officially Yours | 3.60-1 | 2.75 |
| 5 | 6 | Banana Pudding | 29.8-1 | 1.75 |
| 6 | 8 | Miesha | 11.4-1 | 9.25 |
| SCR | — | Cowgirl Chic | — | — |
| SCR | — | Riobella | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS — the only model overlay is chalk; no non-chalk horse clears an overlay threshold · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: TOASTMASTER pressed the early pace three wide, took over on the turn, set the balance of the pace under pressure and proved best in a stiff drive under left handed urging. KISSIN CASH was outside before a quarter mile, offered a strong bid late on the turn then couldn't get past the winner. MIDNIGHT WONDER had good early speed along the rail, lacked room nearing the turn and through the bend then finished determinedly once clear. OFFICIALLY YOURS set a pressured pace in the two path into the stretch, kept on into the stretch then faded while four wide. BANANA PUDDING close up early five wide, dropped back on the turn. MIESHA raced six then four wide and was through after a half. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS — the only model overlay is chalk; no non-chalk horse clears an overlay threshold · SHAPE Lone EP in #2 from inside post with speed bias; pressers inherit if chalk fades; closers need trouble · CHALK #2 KISSIN CASH · solid — lone EP, inside post, bias support, fig profile competitive; not a fade CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 TDN R7 pass_ok · winner #7 TOASTMASTER @ 1.7 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R8#9 Authoritarian Girl · 0.40-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.38 · 45.62 · 57.86 · Final 1:10.94
Splits (23:24) (12:24) (13:08)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Authoritarian Girl | 1 · 21 · 1Head · 1Head · 1Head |
| 2 | Drills Wild Brat | 5 · 11 · 2Head · 2Head · 2Head |
| 8 | Waves of Liberty | 6 · 810 · 1/4 · 712 · 410 · 35 · 1/4 |
| 3 | Lofty Cowtown | 4 · 34 · 1/2 · 33 · 35 · 45 · 1/2 |
| 6 | Perfect Date | 2 · 59 · 510 · 1/2 · 510 · 1/4 · 58 · 1/4 |
| 7 | Ima Mom | 7 · 710 · 611 · 1/2 · 612 · 1/4 · 68 · 3/4 |
| 4 | Midnight Goddess | 3 · 69 · 816 · 815 · 1/4 · 712 · 1/2 |
| 1 | Hot Princess | 8 · 45 · 1/2 · 47 · 714 · 1/4 · 816 · 1/2 |
AUTHORITARIAN GIRL away alertly, pressed the pace two wide into the turn, gained a narrow lead before the quarter pole, matched strides with the runner up the length of the stretch and proved best under left handed urging. DRILLS WILD BRAT bumped at the start, set the pace along the inside into the turn, dug in when headed by the winner, fought back gamely through the final quarter mile but was denied. WAVES OF LIBERTY bumped at the start, trailed down the backstretch, closed willingly four wide through deep stretch and got up for third. LOFTY COWTOWN stalked the pace and went evenly. PERFECT DATE broke outward bumping IMA MOM into WAVES OF LIBERTY at the start, settled four wide then had no rally. IMA MOM was bumped at the start and had no impact. MIDNIGHT GODDESS was no threat. HOT PRINCESS bumped at the start and was through after a half.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #9 Authoritarian Girl · close 0.40-1
- AUTHORITARIAN GIRL away alertly, pressed the pace two wide into the turn, gained a narrow lead before the quarter pole, matched strides with the runner up the length of the stretch and proved best under left handed urging.
- DRILLS WILD BRAT bumped at the start, set the pace along the inside into the turn, dug in when headed by the winner, fought back gamely through the final quarter mile but was denied.
- WAVES OF LIBERTY bumped at the start, trailed down the backstretch, closed willingly four wide through deep stretch and got up for third.
- LOFTY COWTOWN stalked the pace and went evenly.
- PERFECT DATE broke outward bumping IMA MOM into WAVES OF LIBERTY at the start, settled four wide then had no rally.
- IMA MOM was bumped at the start and had no impact.
- MIDNIGHT GODDESS was no threat.
- HOT PRINCESS bumped at the start and was through after a half.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | Authoritarian Girl | 0.40-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | Drills Wild Brat | 14.4-1 | 5.25 |
| 3 | 8 | Waves of Liberty | 6.60-1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3 | Lofty Cowtown | 5.10-1 | 2.75 |
| 5 | 6 | Perfect Date | 9.40-1 | 25.5 |
| 6 | 7 | Ima Mom | 42.3-1 | 3.75 |
| 7 | 4 | Midnight Goddess | 17.8-1 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | Hot Princess | 50.1-1 | 16.5 |
| SCR | — | Dynamic Vision | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: AUTHORITARIAN GIRL away alertly, pressed the pace two wide into the turn, gained a narrow lead before the quarter pole, matched strides with the runner up the length of the stretch and proved best under left handed urging. DRILLS WILD BRAT bumped at the start, set the pace along the inside into the turn, dug in when headed by the winner, fought back gamely through the final quarter mile but was denied. WAVES OF LIBERTY bumped at the start, trailed down the backstretch, closed willingly four wide through deep stretch and got up for third. LOFTY COWTOWN stalked the pace and went evenly. PERFECT DATE broke outward bumping IMA MOM into WAVES OF LIBERTY at the start, settled four wide then had no rally. IMA MOM was bumped at the start and had no impact. MIDNIGHT GODDESS was no threat. HOT PRINCESS bumped at the start and was through after a half. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Likely pace duel (#9 E post 9 vs #5 E post 5); inside-rail bias hurts outside speed; stalkers/closers get a target but the bias cuts against posts 7-9 · CHALK #9 AUTHORITARIAN GIRL (2.5 ML) — solid on figs (peak 83, consistent 77-83 range) but posted 9 against an inside bias, and the sheet rules it unplayable as chalk CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-14 TDN R8 pass_ok · winner #9 AUTHORITARIAN GIRL @ 0.4 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.