WO R9 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#2 vs #3)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2KEEPMYPOWDERDRYE
- C2#5BUIUMC
- C3#3FIRE AND WINEEP
- C4#4KATIES GRACEC
- C5#1BOND MARKETC
- C6#6IMYOURMEDICINEMANC
Honest pace among #2 KEEPMYPOWDERDRY and #3 FIRE AND WINE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #2 KEEPMYPOWDERDRY, #3 FIRE AND WINE · hurts #2 KEEPMYPOWDERDRY, #3 FIRE AND WINE
Pressure: #2 KEEPMYPOWDERDRY and #3 FIRE AND WINE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #5 BUIUM, #4 KATIES GRACE, #1 BOND MARKET, #6 IMYOURMEDICINEMAN · hurts #2 KEEPMYPOWDERDRY, #3 FIRE AND WINE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 BUIUM, #4 KATIES GRACE, #1 BOND MARKET, #6 IMYOURMEDICINEMAN).
Helps #5 BUIUM, #4 KATIES GRACE, #1 BOND MARKET, #6 IMYOURMEDICINEMAN · hurts #2 KEEPMYPOWDERDRY, #3 FIRE AND WINE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | KATIES GRACEMUNGER RYAN | 1.2 | C | Top last figSame trip2026-09-19 WO 4f 48.40 B MT ft 18/48; 2026-08-29 WO 4f 48.20 B MT ft 18/67 · barn: same as last | frWondrWhreB250k → BreedersB400k | DAY-PHILLIPS CATHERI | Favorite |
| 5 | BUIUMWILSON EMMA JAYNE | 2.0 | C | Top last paceSame trip2026-09-19 WO 4f 50.40 B TT ft 6/8; 2026-08-31 WO 4f 47.20 B MT ft bullet 1/11 · barn: same as last | rPrncOWlsB400k → BreedersB400k | ATTARD KEVIN | Favorite |
| 2 | KEEPMYPOWDERDRYMORAN PIETRO | 3.5 | E | Led lastSame trip2026-08-30 FE 4f 50.60 B MT ft 6/7; 2026-08-08 WO 5f 61.20 B MT ft 9/27 · barn: same as last | rPrncOWlsB400k → BreedersB400k | MACRAE DONALD C | field |
| 1 | BOND MARKETFORDE XAREL | 8.0 | C | Rising figsSharp workSame trip2026-09-20 WO 4f 47.80 B MT ft 8/75; 2026-09-13 WO 6f 73.80 B MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | rKingsPltB1000k → BreedersB400k | GRANT CARLOS | field |
| 3 | FIRE AND WINESAMUEL JALON L | 10.0 | EP | Same trip2026-09-20 WO 5f 62.00 B MT ft 10/15; 2026-08-07 WO 5f 61.20 B TT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | rPrncOWlsB400k → BreedersB400k | KRCZMAR ZELKO | field |
| 6 | IMYOURMEDICINEMANAEBLY FRASER | 15.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-20 WO 4f 48.80 B TN fm 7/12; 2026-08-31 WO 4f 47.80 B MT ft 4/11 · barn: same as last | rPrncOWlsB400k → BreedersB400k | LADAUCEUR HAROLD | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEWO R9 · 2026-09-27 · T / 2640y / BreedersB400k · $400,000
- SHAPEDuel risk (#2 vs #3); speed empties → closers inherit; inside rail and speed bias favor whoever can stalk off the pace
- CHALKFavorite#4 KATIES GRACE (ML 1.2) · solid · top fig, model overlay, inside post, route-to-route, rail bias aligned — opposable only on price, not shape
- LEANWinner call#4 KATIES GRACE · best horse, best figure, clearest path off the duel
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse reaches two ready flags)
- PRICEno price (zero non-chalk overlays; #5 BUIUM is chalk; all others model negative edge)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#2 breaks clean and leads wire to wire on a slower pace than projected, negating the duel setup; or track bias softens/reverses off-turf
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, going report (firm vs yielding changes pace dynamics materially), rider changes
Why
Turf route at 2640y in a $400k Breeders stakes, six-filly field with deep closers and two speed types that figure to hook up, making this a genuine pace-pressure scenario with moderate-to-high volatility given the duel risk. The #2/#3 match-up creates honest-to-pressure framing that should theoretically set up the closers, but the chalk (#4 KATIES GRACE, ML 1.2) is the top figure in the field with the model's only overlay, a confirmed turf route trip, and an inside-bias track that suits her stalking style off the pace battle — she is the dominant book entry and a legitimately hard fade. No horse meets the two-flag primed threshold; the desk sheet rec is PASS on non-chalk overlays, and that is exactly what the brief delivers — zero non-chalk price horses. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | KATIES GRACE | 1.2 | 35.7% | 42.5% | +6.8% | 1.15 | C | favoriteTop last figSame trip | 5 |
| 5 | BUIUM | 2.0 | 26.2% | 24.1% | -2.0% | 0.13 | C | favoriteTop last paceSame trip | 3 |
| 2 | KEEPMYPOWDERDRY | 3.5 | 17.4% | 16.5% | -0.9% | 0.24 | E | Led lastSame trip | 6 |
| 1 | BOND MARKET | 8.0 | 8.7% | 8.3% | -0.5% | 0.23 | C | Rising figsSharp workSame trip | 2 |
| 3 | FIRE AND WINE | 10.0 | 7.1% | 4.9% | -2.2% | -1.04 | EP | Same trip | WIN |
| 6 | IMYOURMEDICINEMAN | 15.0 | 4.9% | 3.7% | -1.2% | -0.71 | C | Same trip | 4 |