What this card taught
- Next RaceDay brief reads PLAY MEMORY and CARD REVIEW from earlier dates only. Same-day races do not leak.
- 3 floor misses — next sheet still tags FLOOR. A board shorter than the floor is a pass, not a blown horse.
- 1 PLAY hit recorded. Hit rate does not move Kelly, how hard we tilt toward the model, or the scanner.
- 3 board-inside-floor. Next sheet still writes a min. Shorter than that number is a pass.
- 3 misses had no tote stamp. Floor never checked live.
Scanner and overlay still read the frozen production file. Last test of the price model and residual stay captions.
| R | Winner | PLAY | Miss | Why | Overlay then | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | #9 LETMEKNOWBEFOREUGO 6.6-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | BET #9 LETMEKNOWBEFOREUGO · +3.2% | Overlay hit 2026-09-20 MNR R1 overlay_hit · winner #9 LETMEKNOWBEFOREUGO @ 6.6 · overlay #9 LETMEKNOWBEFOREUGO edge 0.032 · PLAY pass |
| R2 | #8 NESSY 0.9-1 | Pass PASS — no overlay, no price ticket available at any non-chalk horse | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-20 MNR R2 pass_ok · winner #8 NESSY @ 0.9 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R3 | #1 GO GO STAR 1.3-1 | Floor #1 GO GO STAR · min 3.5-1 · win ticket (at 5-2 or shorter, pass) | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (3.5-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | WATCH #1 GO GO STAR · +2.4% | Floor miss 2026-09-20 MNR R3 floor_miss · winner #1 GO GO STAR @ 1.3 · overlay #1 GO GO STAR edge 0.024 · PLAY floor #1 |
| R4 | #3 CUGINE 30.1-1 | Floor #6 KOZYS WILDCAT · min 4-1 · WIN — if board tightens inside 7-2, pass | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (4-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | WATCH #6 KOZYS WILDCAT · +2.7% | Floor miss 2026-09-20 MNR R4 floor_miss · winner #3 CUGINE @ 30.1 · overlay #6 KOZYS WILDCAT edge 0.027 · PLAY floor #6 |
| R5 | #8 HOW ABOUT IT 16.6-1 | Floor #6 UNCLE WILLIAM · min 4-1 · win — at shorter, pass | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (4-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | WATCH #6 UNCLE WILLIAM · +2.7% | Floor miss 2026-09-20 MNR R5 floor_miss · winner #8 HOW ABOUT IT @ 16.6 · overlay #6 UNCLE WILLIAM edge 0.027 · PLAY floor #6 |
| R6 | #1 SUMMERSATTHESHORE 0.6-1 | Pass PASS — #6 DONT COMPRESS is the only non-chalk overlay but one ready flag, outside post against inside bias, and a turf last-out muddle the confidence; no minimum odds justify the path risk | Pass held | — | WATCH #6 DONT COMPRESS · +2.4% | Overlay miss 2026-09-20 MNR R6 overlay_miss · winner #1 SUMMERSATTHESHORE @ 0.6 · overlay #6 DONT COMPRESS edge 0.024 · PLAY pass |
| R7 | #9 FROZEN FOUR 4.5-1 | Pass PASS — sheet rec PASS; only overlay is the chalk; #7 is primed but edge is flat (−0.001) at 3-1 ML, not a price ticket | Pass held | — | BET #4 TACTICS · +3.9% | Overlay miss 2026-09-20 MNR R7 overlay_miss · winner #9 FROZEN FOUR @ 4.5 · overlay #4 TACTICS edge 0.039 · PLAY pass |
| R8 | #11 IF I WERE YOU 4.9-1 | Win #11 IF I WERE YOU · min 4-1 · WIN | PLAY hit | — | WATCH #11 IF I WERE YOU · +2.8% | PLAY hit 2026-09-20 MNR R8 play_hit · winner #11 IF I WERE YOU @ 4.9 · overlay #11 IF I WERE YOU edge 0.028 · PLAY win #11 |
Built 2026-09-21 02:50Z · promotionAuthority false · overlay edge units are model−market (2.0% threshold then).