What this card taught
- Next RaceDay brief reads PLAY MEMORY and CARD REVIEW from earlier dates only. Same-day races do not leak.
- 1 floor miss — next sheet still tags FLOOR. A board shorter than the floor is a pass, not a blown horse.
- 3 PLAY outs stay on the memory line. That is a notice, not a weight.
- 1 PLAY hit recorded. Hit rate does not move Kelly, how hard we tilt toward the model, or the scanner.
- 1 board-inside-floor. Next sheet still writes a min. Shorter than that number is a pass.
- 4 misses had no tote stamp. Floor never checked live.
Scanner and overlay still read the frozen production file. Last test of the price model and residual stay captions.
| R | Winner | PLAY | Miss | Why | Overlay then | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | #4 STONE COLD JONES 19.6-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-11 LRL R1 pass_ok · winner #4 STONE COLD JONES @ 19.6 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R2 | #1 LONG LEGGED LUIS 4.2-1 | Pass PASS — the only overlay is the chalk; no primed price horse has a credible edge at a usable number | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-11 LRL R2 pass_ok · winner #1 LONG LEGGED LUIS @ 4.2 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R3 | #2 TIZ NO CLOWN 1.4-1 | Out #5 WORA · win only · minimum 5-1 · PASS if tote opens below 5-1 | PLAY out | PLAY out no tote PLAY finished out of the money. No sharper why on the stored sheet. | BET #5 WORA · +3.4% | Overlay miss 2026-09-11 LRL R3 overlay_miss · winner #2 TIZ NO CLOWN @ 1.4 · overlay #5 WORA edge 0.034 · PLAY out #5 |
| R4 | #1 DO IT FOR MICHAEL 2.5-1 | Out #7 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND · minimum 4-1 · WIN | PLAY out | PLAY out no tote PLAY finished out of the money. No sharper why on the stored sheet. | WATCH #7 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND · +2.4% | Overlay miss 2026-09-11 LRL R4 overlay_miss · winner #1 DO IT FOR MICHAEL @ 2.5 · overlay #7 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND edge 0.024 · PLAY out #7 |
| R5 | #8 STARMETAL 2.7-1 | Floor #9 PLENTY ON TAP · minimum 4-1 · win only | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (4-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | WATCH #9 PLENTY ON TAP · +2.8% | Floor miss 2026-09-11 LRL R5 floor_miss · winner #8 STARMETAL @ 2.7 · overlay #9 PLENTY ON TAP edge 0.028 · PLAY floor #9 |
| R6 | #3 HIGH VIEW 6.0-1 | Pass PASS — the only overlay is chalk; primed horses are model-underlays | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-11 LRL R6 pass_ok · winner #3 HIGH VIEW @ 6 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R7 | #8 ADERO 3.8-1 | Out #5 WORCESTER · win · min 7/2 (3.5-1) | PLAY out | PLAY out no tote PLAY finished out of the money. No sharper why on the stored sheet. | BET #5 WORCESTER · +3.1% | Overlay miss 2026-09-11 LRL R7 overlay_miss · winner #8 ADERO @ 3.8 · overlay #5 WORCESTER edge 0.031 · PLAY out #5 |
| R8 | #3 MARVELOUS MO 5.5-1 | Win #3 MARVELOUS MO · win · minimum 4-1 (pass if 7-2 or shorter at tote) | PLAY hit | — | BET #3 MARVELOUS MO · +3.2% | PLAY hit 2026-09-11 LRL R8 play_hit · winner #3 MARVELOUS MO @ 5.5 · overlay #3 MARVELOUS MO edge 0.032 · PLAY win #3 |
Built 2026-09-12 14:04Z · promotionAuthority false · overlay edge units are model−market (2.0% threshold then).