What this card taught
- Next RaceDay brief reads PLAY MEMORY and CARD REVIEW from earlier dates only. Same-day races do not leak.
- 1 floor miss — next sheet still tags FLOOR. A board shorter than the floor is a pass, not a blown horse.
- 1 PLAY hit recorded. Hit rate does not move Kelly, how hard we tilt toward the model, or the scanner.
- 1 board-inside-floor. Next sheet still writes a min. Shorter than that number is a pass.
- 1 miss had no tote stamp. Floor never checked live.
Scanner and overlay still read the frozen production file. Last test of the price model and residual stay captions.
| R | Winner | PLAY | Miss | Why | Overlay then | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | #5 NO AUTOGRAPHS 4.3-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-20 CD R1 pass_ok · winner #5 NO AUTOGRAPHS @ 4.31 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R2 | #7 SKYNET 22.8-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-20 CD R2 pass_ok · winner #7 SKYNET @ 22.8 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R3 | #3 QUICK PICK 1.6-1 | Pass PASS — #10 KELZ is the lone overlay but is C-only (needs Scenario C) and carries surface-switch risk (all dirt lines); #4 STORMIN THE BEACH primed but edge 0.017, not flagged overlay; no non-chalk price with both a model edge and an A/B pace path | Pass held | — | WATCH #10 KELZ · +2.7% | Overlay miss 2026-09-20 CD R3 overlay_miss · winner #3 QUICK PICK @ 1.64 · overlay #10 KELZ edge 0.027 · PLAY pass |
| R4 | #4 CARA FELCE 4.9-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-20 CD R4 pass_ok · winner #4 CARA FELCE @ 4.86 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R5 | #9 EAST VILLAGE 2.4-1 | Scratch #5 T V CHANNEL · win · minimum 4-1 (pass if board drops below) | Scratched | — | PASS | Scratch 2026-09-20 CD R5 scratch · winner #9 EAST VILLAGE @ 2.43 · overlay none · PLAY scratch #5 |
| R6 | #10 DONT TELL MOM 1.7-1 | Pass PASS — chalk is LEAN, no non-chalk overlay exists, pace is unreadable, eight debut runners make any price horse speculative | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-20 CD R6 pass_ok · winner #10 DONT TELL MOM @ 1.66 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R7 | #6 DEFINE 2.0-1 | Floor #6 DEFINE · min 4-1 · WIN (at 5 ML this clears; below 4-1, pass) | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (4-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | BET #5 SNEAKILY · +3.9% | Floor miss 2026-09-20 CD R7 floor_miss · winner #6 DEFINE @ 2.04 · overlay #5 SNEAKILY edge 0.039 · PLAY floor #6 |
| R8 | #9 ROCKIE ROCKIE 2.4-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-20 CD R8 pass_ok · winner #9 ROCKIE ROCKIE @ 2.42 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R9 | #5 SHOW OF FORCE 4.0-1 | Win #5 SHOW OF FORCE · min 4-1 · WIN — at 7-2 or shorter, pass | PLAY hit | — | WATCH #5 SHOW OF FORCE · +2.7% | PLAY hit 2026-09-20 CD R9 play_hit · winner #5 SHOW OF FORCE @ 4 · overlay #5 SHOW OF FORCE edge 0.027 · PLAY win #5 |
| R10 | #6 OH SHE SAID YES 3.0-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-20 CD R10 pass_ok · winner #6 OH SHE SAID YES @ 2.99 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
Built 2026-09-21 02:41Z · promotionAuthority false · overlay edge units are model−market (2.0% threshold then).