What this card taught
- Next RaceDay brief reads PLAY MEMORY and CARD REVIEW from earlier dates only. Same-day races do not leak.
- 3 floor misses — next sheet still tags FLOOR. A board shorter than the floor is a pass, not a blown horse.
- 1 PLAY hit recorded. Hit rate does not move Kelly, how hard we tilt toward the model, or the scanner.
- 3 board-inside-floor. Next sheet still writes a min. Shorter than that number is a pass.
- 1 chalk-not-opposable. Fade only when shape still opposes after the chart.
- 3 misses had no tote stamp. Floor never checked live.
Scanner and overlay still read the frozen production file. Last test of the price model and residual stay captions.
| R | Winner | PLAY | Miss | Why | Overlay then | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | #1 ROMANTIC CHARMER 1.5-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 FL R1 pass_ok · winner #1 ROMANTIC CHARMER @ 1.47 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R2 | #2 CHARDONNAY DERBY 1.4-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 FL R2 pass_ok · winner #2 CHARDONNAY DERBY @ 1.38 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R3 | #5 SARATOGA BANKER 4.5-1 | Win #5 SARATOGA BANKER · min 3-1 · win | PLAY hit | — | WATCH #5 SARATOGA BANKER · +2.7% | PLAY hit 2026-09-14 FL R3 play_hit · winner #5 SARATOGA BANKER @ 4.47 · overlay #5 SARATOGA BANKER edge 0.027 · PLAY win #5 |
| R4 | #5 LOVELY PASHYN 1.4-1 | Floor #1 BACK TO KHALI · min 4-1 · win — primed with a pace path; at shorter, pass | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (4-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | WATCH #4 IMMORTAL POET · +2.5% | Floor miss 2026-09-14 FL R4 floor_miss · winner #5 LOVELY PASHYN @ 1.45 · overlay #4 IMMORTAL POET edge 0.025 · PLAY floor #1 |
| R5 | #6 RAW COURAGE 10.8-1 | Pass PASS — #1 CLASSIC CUT is the only overlay; edge is thin (0.021), last race hung after bidding, and without live tote confirmation the price case is marginal; no min-odds number clears the bar with confidence | Pass held | — | WATCH #1 CLASSIC CUT · +2.1% | Overlay miss 2026-09-14 FL R5 overlay_miss · winner #6 RAW COURAGE @ 10.79 · overlay #1 CLASSIC CUT edge 0.021 · PLAY pass |
| R6 | #4 BALD KITTEN 2.4-1 | Floor #1 PLAYINGON BROADWAY · win · min 4-1 · class rise is the risk but rail + bias + fig jump support | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote · Chalk was not opposable Close was shorter than the floor (4-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. Chalk fade did not hold. | WATCH #5 RECORDED TIME · +2.8% | Floor miss 2026-09-14 FL R6 floor_miss · winner #4 BALD KITTEN @ 2.4 · overlay #5 RECORDED TIME edge 0.028 · PLAY floor #1 |
| R7 | #2 OUSTER 0.8-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 FL R7 pass_ok · winner #2 OUSTER @ 0.75 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
| R8 | #2 HONEST REASON 3.5-1 | Floor #7 CLARIVIDENTE · min 5-1 · win · needs to show early enough to clear and hold on the rail bias; at 4-1 or shorter, PASS | Died at the floor | Board inside the floor no tote Close was shorter than the floor (5-1). Sheet already said pass at that number. | BET #7 CLARIVIDENTE · +3.6% | Floor miss 2026-09-14 FL R8 floor_miss · winner #2 HONEST REASON @ 3.53 · overlay #7 CLARIVIDENTE edge 0.036 · PLAY floor #7 |
| R9 | #3 MR SUGAR DADDY 5.7-1 | Pass PASS | Pass held | — | PASS | Pass ok 2026-09-14 FL R9 pass_ok · winner #3 MR SUGAR DADDY @ 5.74 · overlay none · PLAY pass |
Built 2026-09-16 02:23Z · promotionAuthority false · overlay edge units are model−market (2.0% threshold then).