MNR · 2026-09-13
Chart replay. Equibase tells what happened. Card review tells what we did. Overlay stays frozen.
Official chart Equibase · parser 1.2.0 · checksum 22f4de8b0e87b352 · us_mutuel_to_one
R1#4 Rocky Colavito · 5.20-1play passWATCHRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.76 · 47.57 · Final 1:01.29
Splits (24:81) (13:72)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rocky Colavito | 10 · 105 · 1/2 · 77 · 1/2 · 64 · 1/2 · 1Head |
| 10 | Interval | 6 · 31/2 · 1Head · 11/2 · 2Head |
| 8 | My Balboa | 7 · 53/4 · 64 · 1/2 · 74 · 1/2 · 31 · 3/4 |
| 2 | Mo Snow | 8 · 95 · 1/2 · 1011 · 95 · 1/2 · 42 · 1/4 |
| 9 | Forever Valiant | 1 · 11/2 · 2Head · 21/2 · 53 · 3/4 |
| 3 | Bengal Cat | 5 · 61 · 99 · 85 · 64 · 1/4 |
| 11 | Il Vagabundo | 9 · 71 · 1/2 · 42 · 1/2 · 42 · 74 · 3/4 |
| 6 | One Step Beyond | 3 · 43/4 · 53 · 1/2 · 52 · 1/2 · 85 |
| 7 | Vindicato | 2 · 84 · 1/2 · 88 · 108 · 1/2 · 98 · 1/2 |
| 5 | Big Fuzz | 4 · 21/2 · 31/2 · 31 · 1/2 · 1013 · 1/2 |
ROCKY COLAVITO slow early circled out to upper stretch surging late six wide getting up at the wire. INTERVAL pressed the pace wresting the lead on the turn digging in down the lane missing on the wire. MY BALBOA chased the pace bidding all out between horses down the lane. MO SNOW lagged to upper stretch rallying late. FOREVER VALIANT pressed the pace dueling on the inside to upper stretch weakening late. BENGAL CAT faded on the turn. IL VAGABUNDO rushed up on the turn vying in upper stretch weakening late. ONE STEP BEYOND chased inside weakening on the rail. VINDICATO played no factor. BIG FUZZ pressed the pace fading in deep stretch.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #4 Rocky Colavito · close 5.20-1
- ROCKY COLAVITO slow early circled out to upper stretch surging late six wide getting up at the wire.
- INTERVAL pressed the pace wresting the lead on the turn digging in down the lane missing on the wire.
- MY BALBOA chased the pace bidding all out between horses down the lane.
- MO SNOW lagged to upper stretch rallying late.
- FOREVER VALIANT pressed the pace dueling on the inside to upper stretch weakening late.
- BENGAL CAT faded on the turn.
- IL VAGABUNDO rushed up on the turn vying in upper stretch weakening late.
- ONE STEP BEYOND chased inside weakening on the rail.
- VINDICATO played no factor.
- BIG FUZZ pressed the pace fading in deep stretch.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | Rocky Colavito | 5.20-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 10 | Interval | 12.8-1 | 1.75 |
| 3 | 8 | My Balboa | 1.50-1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2 | Mo Snow | 62.6-1 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 9 | Forever Valiant | 14.1-1 | 0.5 |
| 6 | 3 | Bengal Cat | 40.9-1 | 0.5 |
| 7 | 11 | Il Vagabundo | 18.4-1 | 0.3 |
| 8 | 6 | One Step Beyond | 3.80-1 | 3.5 |
| 9 | 7 | Vindicato | 84.6-1 | 5 |
| 10 | 5 | Big Fuzz | 3.60-1 | 13.5 |
| SCR | — | Doom Loop | — | — |
| SCR | — | Ticket to Paradise | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- WATCH · #5 BIG FUZZ · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: ROCKY COLAVITO slow early circled out to upper stretch surging late six wide getting up at the wire. INTERVAL pressed the pace wresting the lead on the turn digging in down the lane missing on the wire. MY BALBOA chased the pace bidding all out between horses down the lane. MO SNOW lagged to upper stretch rallying late. FOREVER VALIANT pressed the pace dueling on the inside to upper stretch weakening late. BENGAL CAT faded on the turn. IL VAGABUNDO rushed up on the turn vying in upper stretch weakening late. ONE STEP BEYOND chased inside weakening on the rail. VINDICATO played no factor. BIG FUZZ pressed the pace fading in deep stretch. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Five EP types from posts 3–10 guarantee a contested pace; rail bias and speed-bias track stats favor whoever breaks clean and gets to the inside — honest duel scenario most likely, slight benefit to the horse that secures the rail early · CHALK #4 ROCKY COLAVITO · usable but short · turf figs (67–74) trail his dirt win fig; four rival EP horses complicate his path despite the good draw CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model WATCH #5 BIG FUZZ · 2026-09-13 MNR R1 overlay_miss · winner #4 ROCKY COLAVITO @ 5.2 · overlay #5 BIG FUZZ edge 0.026 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R2#6 Battuta d'Oro · 2.60-1play passWATCHRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 23.10 · 46.55 · 59.15 · Final 1:12.07
Splits (23:45) (12:60) (12:92)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Battuta d'Oro | 5 · 53 · 1/2 · 11 · 11/2 · 12 |
| 1 | El Ondeado | 4 · 31 · 1/2 · 31 · 1/2 · 21/2 · 22 |
| 3 | Old Flag (IRE) | 3 · 11 · 21 · 32 · 1/2 · 33 |
| 7 | Uncle Truly | 1 · 41 · 1/2 · 41 · 1/2 · 44 · 1/2 · 44 |
| 4 | Loony | 2 · 21 · 53 · 510 · 1/2 · 516 · 3/4 |
BATTUTA D'ORO bid to the lead four deep on the turn digging in down the lane finding more. EL ONDEADO chased on the inside threatening in upper stretch being turned away late. OLD FLAG (IRE) led early being passed on the turn chasing in upper stretch finishing evenly. UNCLE TRULY chased the pace weakening in upper stretch. LOONY faded on the turn.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #6 Battuta d'Oro · close 2.60-1
- BATTUTA D'ORO bid to the lead four deep on the turn digging in down the lane finding more.
- EL ONDEADO chased on the inside threatening in upper stretch being turned away late.
- OLD FLAG (IRE) led early being passed on the turn chasing in upper stretch finishing evenly.
- UNCLE TRULY chased the pace weakening in upper stretch.
- LOONY faded on the turn.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Battuta d'Oro | 2.60-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | El Ondeado | 1.90-1 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | Old Flag (IRE) | 2.60-1 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | Uncle Truly | 2.60-1 | 12.75 |
| 5 | 4 | Loony | 18.1-1 | 16.75 |
| SCR | — | Arcadian | — | — |
| SCR | — | Barleewon | — | — |
| SCR | — | Bring Me a Check | — | — |
| SCR | — | Maxwell Esquire | — | — |
| SCR | — | Poppy's Pride | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- WATCH · #2 BRING ME A CHECK · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: BATTUTA D'ORO bid to the lead four deep on the turn digging in down the lane finding more. EL ONDEADO chased on the inside threatening in upper stretch being turned away late. OLD FLAG (IRE) led early being passed on the turn chasing in upper stretch finishing evenly. UNCLE TRULY chased the pace weakening in upper stretch. LOONY faded on the turn. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Lone speed (#14) from post 14 clears; closer-heavy field; speed/inside bias vs. closer-packed map — soft pace likely favors a stalker with a kick · CHALK #8 SMALL FIELD 2 · opposable · outside post in an inside-bias track, zero edge, class drop alone does not make it a bet CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model WATCH #2 BRING ME A CHECK · 2026-09-13 MNR R2 overlay_miss · winner #6 BATTUTA DORO @ 2.6 · overlay #2 BRING ME A CHECK edge 0.024 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R3#6 Positive Carry (IRE) · 1.40-1play passWATCHRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 24.77 · 48.78 · 1:14.95 · Final 1:44.35
Splits (24:01) (26:17) (29:40)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Positive Carry (IRE) | 4 · 21 · 21 · 12 · 13 · 14 |
| 7 | Good Enough for Me | 5 · 516 · 519 · 1/2 · 518 · 410 · 24 |
| 2 | Super Engreida | 2 · 32 · 37 · 36 · 23 · 34 · 1/2 |
| 5 | Shez Twisted | 1 · 11 · 11 · 22 · 35 · 45 · 3/4 |
| 8 | Quince | 3 · 44 · 47 · 1/2 · 410 · 510 · 1/2 · 512 · 1/4 |
POSITIVE CARRY (IRE) stalked the pace bidding clear on the far turn holding safe to wire under urging. GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME well back early circled out to upper stretch giving a strong finish. SUPER ENGREIDA tracked the pace saving ground to upper stretch finishing evenly on the rail. SHEZ TWISTED set the pace being passed on the far turn weakening in upper stretch. QUINCE was never involved.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #6 Positive Carry (IRE) · close 1.40-1
- POSITIVE CARRY (IRE) stalked the pace bidding clear on the far turn holding safe to wire under urging.
- GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME well back early circled out to upper stretch giving a strong finish.
- SUPER ENGREIDA tracked the pace saving ground to upper stretch finishing evenly on the rail.
- SHEZ TWISTED set the pace being passed on the far turn weakening in upper stretch.
- QUINCE was never involved.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Positive Carry (IRE) | 1.40-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 7 | Good Enough for Me | 3.20-1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | Super Engreida | 2.10-1 | 1.25 |
| 4 | 5 | Shez Twisted | 5.80-1 | 6.5 |
| 5 | 8 | Quince | 9.60-1 | 12.25 |
| SCR | — | Dance On Air | — | — |
| SCR | — | Joys of Summer | — | — |
| SCR | — | Morgan's Bluff | — | — |
| SCR | — | She Had a Secret | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS — no non-chalk price overlay confirmed; #1 is intriguing at 15-1 or better but model edge is flat and live tote is absent · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- WATCH · #9 SHE HAD A SECRET · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: POSITIVE CARRY (IRE) stalked the pace bidding clear on the far turn holding safe to wire under urging. GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME well back early circled out to upper stretch giving a strong finish. SUPER ENGREIDA tracked the pace saving ground to upper stretch finishing evenly on the rail. SHEZ TWISTED set the pace being passed on the far turn weakening in upper stretch. QUINCE was never involved. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS — no non-chalk price overlay confirmed; #1 is intriguing at 15-1 or better but model edge is flat and live tote is absent · SHAPE Speed duel likely (#4 lone E, pressured by two EP types); stalker/presser path opens for inside horses; bias favors early and rail · CHALK #6 POSITIVE CARRY · short · 2nd-off-layoff ready flag is real, but 1.4 ML is unplayable by doctrine CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model WATCH #9 SHE HAD A SECRET · 2026-09-13 MNR R3 overlay_miss · winner #6 POSITIVE CARRY @ 1.4 · overlay #9 SHE HAD A SECRET edge 0.021 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R4#6 Lil Breezzy · 1.40-1play passWATCHRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.61 · 47.52 · 1:00.87 · Final 1:08.05
Splits (24:91) (13:35) (7:18)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lil Breezzy | 8 · 54 · 1/2 · 31/2 · 1Head · 11 |
| 9 | I'm On Edge | 4 · 43 · 1Head · 2Head · 21 |
| 7 | Boccabella | 7 · 86 · 811 · 812 · 3/4 · 37 |
| 5 | Reya Sunshine | 5 · 64 · 1/2 · 77 · 77 · 3/4 · 47 |
| 8 | Alter the Stars | 6 · 75 · 63 · 64 · 3/4 · 58 |
| 4 | Princess Mitole | 1 · 32 · 41 · 44 · 69 · 1/2 |
| 3 | Ice Floe | 3 · 21 · 1/2 · 52 · 54 · 1/4 · 710 · 1/2 |
| 2 | Vitaemi | 2 · 11 · 1/2 · 2Head · 33 · 815 · 1/2 |
LIL BREEZZY pressed bid on the turn dueling abreast foe down the lane extending up in the closing yards. I'M ON EDGE pressed to draw even on the turn dueling inside of foe down the lane battling to the end. BOCCABELLA in tight nearing the turn lost ground to upper stretch moving up late eight wide. REYA SUNSHINE lagged to upper stretch giving a mild late rally. ALTER THE STARS played no factor. PRINCESS MITOLE chased through the turn weakening in upper stretch. ICE FLOE chased the pace fading to upper stretch. VITAEMI pressed through the turn wilting from the rail down the lane.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #6 Lil Breezzy · close 1.40-1
- LIL BREEZZY pressed bid on the turn dueling abreast foe down the lane extending up in the closing yards.
- I'M ON EDGE pressed to draw even on the turn dueling inside of foe down the lane battling to the end.
- BOCCABELLA in tight nearing the turn lost ground to upper stretch moving up late eight wide.
- REYA SUNSHINE lagged to upper stretch giving a mild late rally.
- ALTER THE STARS played no factor.
- PRINCESS MITOLE chased through the turn weakening in upper stretch.
- ICE FLOE chased the pace fading to upper stretch.
- VITAEMI pressed through the turn wilting from the rail down the lane.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Lil Breezzy | 1.40-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 9 | I'm On Edge | 2.90-1 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | Boccabella | 10.2-1 | 0.05 |
| 4 | 5 | Reya Sunshine | 2.30-1 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | Alter the Stars | 12.3-1 | 1.5 |
| 6 | 4 | Princess Mitole | 30.9-1 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | Ice Floe | 37.9-1 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | Vitaemi | 41.3-1 | 15.5 |
| SCR | — | Wedding March | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- WATCH · #6 LIL BREEZZY · edge — overlay was the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: LIL BREEZZY pressed bid on the turn dueling abreast foe down the lane extending up in the closing yards. I'M ON EDGE pressed to draw even on the turn dueling inside of foe down the lane battling to the end. BOCCABELLA in tight nearing the turn lost ground to upper stretch moving up late eight wide. REYA SUNSHINE lagged to upper stretch giving a mild late rally. ALTER THE STARS played no factor. PRINCESS MITOLE chased through the turn weakening in upper stretch. ICE FLOE chased the pace fading to upper stretch. VITAEMI pressed through the turn wilting from the rail down the lane. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Multi-presser pace map sets up a contested early pace; closers favored by bias but no primed closer clears two flags · CHALK #9 IM ON EDGE — opposable; outer post (9) fights an inside-rail bias, and a multi-horse early pace threatens its EP style CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model WATCH #6 LIL BREEZZY · 2026-09-13 MNR R4 overlay_hit · winner #6 LIL BREEZZY @ 1.4 · overlay #6 LIL BREEZZY edge 0.027 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R5#7 Red Drapes · 1.30-1play passBETRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.91 · 46.94 · 1:00.06 · Final 1:14.10
Splits (24:03) (13:12) (14:04)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Red Drapes | 1 · 32 · 1Head · 13 · 12 |
| 4 | Estrella Silver | 3 · 12 · 2Head · 23 · 22 |
| 9 | Mazarn | 6 · 710 · 711 · 1/2 · 59 · 1/2 · 35 · 3/4 |
| 5 | Dream Leader | 5 · 67 · 58 · 49 · 46 · 3/4 |
| 2 | Red Delicious | 7 · 44 · 33 · 35 · 59 · 1/4 |
| 8 | Heavenly Lady | 4 · 55 · 68 · 1/2 · 612 · 1/2 · 615 · 1/2 |
| 3 | Highway Robbery | 8 · 812 · 817 · 1/2 · 826 · 1/2 · 727 · 1/2 |
| 6 | Presleys Volley | 2 · 22 · 47 · 724 · 1/2 · 829 · 3/4 |
RED DRAPES drew even on the turn shaking clear in upper stretch holding firm to wire. ESTRELLA SILVER set the pace being hooked on the turn ceding in upper stretch holding well the final eighth. MAZARN slow early saved ground to upper stretch moving up from the rail. DREAM LEADER raced evenly lacking more. RED DELICIOUS chased through the turn weakening in upper stretch. HEAVENLY LADY was never involved. HIGHWAY ROBBERY was always outrun. PRESLEYS VOLLEY chased early then faded on the turn.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #7 Red Drapes · close 1.30-1
- RED DRAPES drew even on the turn shaking clear in upper stretch holding firm to wire.
- ESTRELLA SILVER set the pace being hooked on the turn ceding in upper stretch holding well the final eighth.
- MAZARN slow early saved ground to upper stretch moving up from the rail.
- DREAM LEADER raced evenly lacking more.
- RED DELICIOUS chased through the turn weakening in upper stretch.
- HEAVENLY LADY was never involved.
- HIGHWAY ROBBERY was always outrun.
- PRESLEYS VOLLEY chased early then faded on the turn.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Red Drapes | 1.30-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 4 | Estrella Silver | 11.9-1 | 3.75 |
| 3 | 9 | Mazarn | 2.90-1 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | Dream Leader | 2.40-1 | 2.5 |
| 5 | 2 | Red Delicious | 15.7-1 | 6.25 |
| 6 | 8 | Heavenly Lady | 45.8-1 | 12 |
| 7 | 3 | Highway Robbery | 34.1-1 | 2.25 |
| 8 | 6 | Presleys Volley | 19.5-1 | 29.75 |
| SCR | — | R Candy | — | — |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- BET · #7 RED DRAPES · edge — overlay was the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: RED DRAPES drew even on the turn shaking clear in upper stretch holding firm to wire. ESTRELLA SILVER set the pace being hooked on the turn ceding in upper stretch holding well the final eighth. MAZARN slow early saved ground to upper stretch moving up from the rail. DREAM LEADER raced evenly lacking more. RED DELICIOUS chased through the turn weakening in upper stretch. HEAVENLY LADY was never involved. HIGHWAY ROBBERY was always outrun. PRESLEYS VOLLEY chased early then faded on the turn. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Dual EP pressure (#6 #7) into closer-heavy field; inside/speed bias helps early, but duel likely sets up latecomers — shape is contested, outcome murky · CHALK #5 Dream Leader · short/opposable · sharp class drop masks declining figs (66→57 last two) and C-style that needs pace to collapse CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model BET #7 RED DRAPES · 2026-09-13 MNR R5 overlay_hit · winner #7 RED DRAPES @ 1.3 · overlay #7 RED DRAPES edge 0.067 · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R6#3 Crime Lord · 0.90-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 23.06 · 48.00 · 1:01.51 · Final 1:08.38
Splits (24:94) (13:51) (6:87)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crime Lord | 6 · 67 · 1/2 · 57 · 1/2 · 22 · 11 · 3/4 |
| 1 | Finn d'Oro | 3 · 43 · 1/2 · 33 · 32 · 21 · 3/4 |
| 4 | Not Like Us | 1 · 13 · 1Head · 12 · 35 · 1/4 |
| 2 | Clare's Cause | 2 · 33 · 47 · 45 · 45 · 3/4 |
| 6 | Pop Neigh | 4 · 23 · 2Head · 55 · 1/2 · 515 · 1/4 |
| 5 | Talkin Tough | 5 · 55 · 1/2 · 69 · 1/2 · 611 · 1/2 · 617 · 3/4 |
CRIME LORD hopped missing the break surging into upper stretch drawing clear four wide. FINN D'ORO chased the pace saving ground to upper stretch angling out bidding gamely late. NOT LIKE US set the pace shaking clear in upper stretch before weakening under pressure. CLARE'S CAUSE weakened on the turn. POP NEIGH pressed on the turn then gave way in upper stretch. TALKIN TOUGH was always outrun.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #3 Crime Lord · close 0.90-1
- CRIME LORD hopped missing the break surging into upper stretch drawing clear four wide.
- FINN D'ORO chased the pace saving ground to upper stretch angling out bidding gamely late.
- NOT LIKE US set the pace shaking clear in upper stretch before weakening under pressure.
- CLARE'S CAUSE weakened on the turn.
- POP NEIGH pressed on the turn then gave way in upper stretch.
- TALKIN TOUGH was always outrun.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Crime Lord | 0.90-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | Finn d'Oro | 1.80-1 | 3.5 |
| 3 | 4 | Not Like Us | 4.60-1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2 | Clare's Cause | 12.7-1 | 9.5 |
| 5 | 6 | Pop Neigh | 16.7-1 | 2.5 |
| 6 | 5 | Talkin Tough | 20.9-1 | 17.75 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS — primed horse (#4) has no price overlay; sheet rec is PASS; play the sheet · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: CRIME LORD hopped missing the break surging into upper stretch drawing clear four wide. FINN D'ORO chased the pace saving ground to upper stretch angling out bidding gamely late. NOT LIKE US set the pace shaking clear in upper stretch before weakening under pressure. CLARE'S CAUSE weakened on the turn. POP NEIGH pressed on the turn then gave way in upper stretch. TALKIN TOUGH was always outrun. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS — primed horse (#4) has no price overlay; sheet rec is PASS; play the sheet · SHAPE Lone-speed map; #4 controls early, chalks sit and close; inside/speed bias supports the E · CHALK #3 CRIME LORD (ML 2) and #1 FINN DORO (ML 2.5) — both model-flat, zero overlay, automatic passes CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-13 MNR R6 pass_ok · winner #3 CRIME LORD @ 0.9 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R7#6 Beautriz · 0.80-1play passPASSRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
Fractions 22.53 · 46.58 · 59.37 · Final 1:12.45
Splits (24:05) (12:79) (13:08)
| Pgm | Horse | Calls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Beautriz | 2 · 21/2 · 11 · 12 · 18 · 3/4 |
| 7 | Shuler Gray | 4 · 43 · 1/2 · 32 · 32 · 1/2 · 28 · 3/4 |
| 2 | Chanterelle | 3 · 32 · 1/2 · 42 · 43 · 38 · 3/4 |
| 1 | Spuns Kitten | 6 · 65 · 67 · 1/4 · 57 · 412 |
| 5 | Slush Fund | 1 · 11/2 · 21 · 22 · 514 · 1/2 |
| 4 | Butterfly Effect | 5 · 54 · 1/2 · 57 · 611 · 615 · 3/4 |
| 3 | Eyesonthecandy | 7 · 711 · 711 · 1/4 · 713 · 719 |
BEAUTRIZ bid clear on the turn drawing off down the lane as much the best. SHULER GRAY rallied on the turn chasing down the lane saving place. CHANTERELLE chased the pace dueling for place down the lane. SPUNS KITTEN slow early finished evenly. SLUSH FUND pressed the pace tiring in upper stretch. BUTTERFLY EFFECT played no factor. EYESONTHECANDY was always outrun.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner #6 Beautriz · close 0.80-1
- BEAUTRIZ bid clear on the turn drawing off down the lane as much the best.
- SHULER GRAY rallied on the turn chasing down the lane saving place.
- CHANTERELLE chased the pace dueling for place down the lane.
- SPUNS KITTEN slow early finished evenly.
- SLUSH FUND pressed the pace tiring in upper stretch.
- BUTTERFLY EFFECT played no factor.
- EYESONTHECANDY was always outrun.
| Fin | Pgm | Horse | Close | BL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Beautriz | 0.80-1 | 0 |
| 2 | 7 | Shuler Gray | 3.70-1 | 0.05 |
| 3 | 2 | Chanterelle | 3.20-1 | 3.25 |
| 4 | 1 | Spuns Kitten | 9.20-1 | 2.5 |
| 5 | 5 | Slush Fund | 36.0-1 | 1.25 |
| 6 | 4 | Butterfly Effect | 9.10-1 | 3.25 |
| 7 | 3 | Eyesonthecandy | 75.2-1 | 19 |
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Pass held · pass
- Price model
- PASS · no overlay — then-active overlay passed — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: BEAUTRIZ bid clear on the turn drawing off down the lane as much the best. SHULER GRAY rallied on the turn chasing down the lane saving place. CHANTERELLE chased the pace dueling for place down the lane. SPUNS KITTEN slow early finished evenly. SLUSH FUND pressed the pace tiring in upper stretch. BUTTERFLY EFFECT played no factor. EYESONTHECANDY was always outrun. SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE Speed/inside bias favors E/EP from inner posts; lone speed #1 SPUNS KITTEN (post 1, E) sets up for stalkers, but #7 (chalk, post 7, EP) must overcome the wide draw to press — honest pace likely, closing bias cuts against the field's mostly speed-sided makeup · CHALK #7 SHULER GRAY · short · rising fig and class fit are real, but post 7 fights the inside/speed bias; usable, not fadeable on shape alone, but still chalk and not a play CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet pass_correct · pass · price model PASS · 2026-09-13 MNR R7 pass_ok · winner #6 BEAUTRIZ @ 0.8 · overlay none · PLAY pass — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.
R8no official finishWATCHRace →
1. How it ran
Equibase, not Closebeat.
No footnotes in this official chart yet.
2. How it was won / lost
Facts from the chart. No second story.
Winner — · close —
3. How this system treated it
Card review. Isolated. No authority.
- Sheet
- PASS · Ungraded
- Price model
- WATCH · #8 MY TWO AUNT JOANS · edge — overlay was not the official winner — noticed, not in use
- Book
- none
4. What we keep
- Sheet MEMORY may cite the footnote next time. Same-day races do not leak.
- How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. Last test of the price model stays a caption.
- This page does not write the production file. A human test that beats the close is the only path into use.
5. Chart note
Quotes footnotes, sheet, and card review. Not a weight.
CHART — Equibase footnotes: (none on this official chart) SHEET — stored PLAY / SHAPE / CHALK: PLAY PASS · SHAPE EP cluster (#1 #4 #7 #8) risks a pace duel; inside/rail bias favors early position; 30-day closer win rate 50% suggests the duel can set up late runners, but no non-chalk has clean pace path plus two ready flags · CHALK #4 KICK STARTNESS · solid · class drop, rising figs (73→80), honest trip last; but 2-1 is an automatic pass CARD REVIEW — then-active notice: sheet ungraded · price model WATCH #8 MY TWO AUNT JOANS · 2026-09-13 MNR R8 pass_ok · winner ? · overlay #8 MY TWO AUNT JOANS edge 0.025 · PLAY none — noticed, not in use KEEP — MEMORY may cite the chart. How hard we tilt toward the model does not change. This note is not a weight.