MNR R2 · 2026-10-06
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#13 #5 #9 #7 #6)
Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#13NATE THE GREATEP
- C2#5Z DANCERE
- C3#9BOSLEYE
- C4#7ST LOUIE LOUIEEP
- C5#10IF I WERE YOUS
- C6#6JUJUBEEE
- C7#11TRICKY TIGERP
- C8#8RUNNINGFORJOYP
- C9#4AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNYS
- C10#2ITALIAN SYMPHONYC
- C11#1LEGAL TITANP
- C12#3BATTUTA DOROC
- C13#14ARCHIMEDESP
- C14#12XIAO LONGC
Honest pace among #13 NATE THE GREAT and #5 Z DANCER and #9 BOSLEY and #7 ST LOUIE LOUIE and #6 JUJUBEE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #11 TRICKY TIGER, #8 RUNNINGFORJOY, #1 LEGAL TITAN, #14 ARCHIMEDES, #10 IF I WERE YOU, #4 AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY · hurts #13 NATE THE GREAT, #5 Z DANCER, #9 BOSLEY, #7 ST LOUIE LOUIE, #6 JUJUBEE
Pressure: #13 NATE THE GREAT and #5 Z DANCER and #9 BOSLEY and #7 ST LOUIE LOUIE and #6 JUJUBEE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #11 TRICKY TIGER, #8 RUNNINGFORJOY, #1 LEGAL TITAN, #14 ARCHIMEDES, #10 IF I WERE YOU, #4 AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY · hurts #13 NATE THE GREAT, #5 Z DANCER, #9 BOSLEY, #7 ST LOUIE LOUIE, #6 JUJUBEE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#10 IF I WERE YOU, #4 AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY, #2 ITALIAN SYMPHONY, #3 BATTUTA DORO, #12 XIAO LONG).
Helps #10 IF I WERE YOU, #4 AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY, #2 ITALIAN SYMPHONY, #3 BATTUTA DORO, #12 XIAO LONG · hurts #13 NATE THE GREAT, #5 Z DANCER, #9 BOSLEY, #7 ST LOUIE LOUIE, #6 JUJUBEE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ITALIAN SYMPHONYCHAVEZ ALEXANDER | 2.0 | C | Rising figsTop last fig2026-08-20 CNL 4f 50.00 B MT ft 10/16; 2026-07-10 CT 4f 53.00 B MT my 2/2 · barn: same as last | OC15000n1x → OClm 15000n3x | MEYERS SHANE | Favorite |
| 13 | NATE THE GREATBATISTA LUIS ALBERTO | 3.0 | EP | Barn changeTop last paceSame trip2026-02-07 GP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 45/102; 2026-01-17 GP 5f 59.40 B MT ft 3/44 · barn: change vs FARRIOR ANTHONY | OC15000n1xc → OClm 15000n3x | ALLEN JEFFREY D | field |
| 14 | ARCHIMEDESRIVERA L R | 2.0 | P | Tag dropBarn change2026-09-11 MTH 3f 39.20 B MT ft 4/5; 2026-07-18 BEL 4f 49.00 B TT ft 22/121 · barn: change vs SYNNEFIAS PANAGIOTIS A | Clm16000n2l → OClm 15000n3x | FARRIOR ANTHONY | Favorite |
| 6 | JUJUBEEBRACHO JOSE A | 3.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-08-06 BTP 4f 51.60 B MT ft 7/7; 2026-07-10 BTP 4f 47.80 B MT ft 2/13 · barn: same as last | OC16000n1x → OClm 15000n3x | ESTVANKO RICHARD | field |
| 5 | Z DANCERHALDAR HUMBERTO | 5.0 | E | Rising figsClass dropLed lastSame trip2026-06-29 MNR 4f 51.60 B MT ft 7/8; 2026-06-16 MNR 4f 52.20 B MT ft 27/29 · barn: same as last | Alw20370n3x → OClm 15000n3x | VAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOS | primed |
| 1 | LEGAL TITANARROYO N JR | 7.0 | P | Rising figsLed last2026-09-16 MNR 4f 50.40 B MT ft 6/13; 2026-08-19 MNR 4f 50.00 B MT ft 12/17 · barn: same as last | Clm12500b → OClm 15000n3x | JENKINS WALLACE A | field |
| 3 | BATTUTA DORONEGRON LUIS | 9.0 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycle2026-06-23 MNR 4f 48.00 B MT ft 2/17; 2026-06-16 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft 9/29 · barn: same as last | Clm7500 → OClm 15000n3x | VAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOS | primed |
| 7 | ST LOUIE LOUIEFELICIANO R | 10.0 | EP | Same trip2026-09-24 TDN 5f 61.40 B MT ft 3/7; 2026-08-27 TDN 5f 62.60 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | OC12500 → OClm 15000n3x | FELICIANO BENNY R | field |
| 11 | TRICKY TIGERNEGRON LUIS | 10.0 | P | Class dropLed lastBarn changeSame trip2025-08-22 PMM 3f 39.20 B MT ft 18/20; 2025-05-07 PMM 3f 38.20 B MT ft 1/1 · barn: change vs RIVERA NESTOR R | Alw10000s → OClm 15000n3x | BERNARDINI JAY P | field |
| 4 | AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNYGOMEZ ALEJANDRO | 12.0 | S | Rising figsClass dropSame trip2026-04-06 MNR 4f 50.20 B D MT hy 11/34; 2026-03-29 MNR 5f 64.40 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | Alw10000s → OClm 15000n3x | BAYLEY RANDY | primed |
| 10 | IF I WERE YOUWEATHERLY BAILEY | 20.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-05-22 PID 4f 46.80 B MT ft 9/27; 2026-05-12 PID 3f 36.40 B MT ft 2/17 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n4x → OClm 15000n3x | SCALLAN ROBERT S | field |
| 8 | RUNNINGFORJOYBARBARAN ERIK | 15.0 | P | Same trip2026-07-19 PID 4f 50.00 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-07-09 PID 4f 52.20 B MT ft 22/23 · barn: same as last | Clm12500b → OClm 15000n3x | HAYES LELAND | field |
| 12 | XIAO LONGGOMEZ ALEJANDRO | 15.0 | C | 3rd start cycle2026-09-20 MNR 4f 52.00 B MT ft 7/9; 2026-08-28 MNR 5f 61.40 B MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → OClm 15000n3x | DESTEFANO BRUCE | field |
| 9 | BOSLEYGONZALEZ KEVIN | 20.0 | E | —2026-04-24 MNR 4f 48.40 B MT ft 4/15; 2026-04-13 MNR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 4/19 · barn: same as last | OC15000n1x → OClm 15000n3x | CLULEY DENNIS | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R2 · 2026-10-06 · Turf 1760y · OClm 15000n3x
- SHAPEWall of early speed duel (5 E/EP types) favors stalkers and closers; inside-rail bias adds a pace-meltdown lean; volatility high
- CHALKFavorite#2 ITALIAN SYMPHONY (2-1) — usable but short; dirt-to-turf switch, top fig (85), best closer in the field, but 2-1 in a 14-horse duel with no price
- LEANWinner call#2 ITALIAN SYMPHONY — top last fig, turf ROI positive, figures at this level, best positioned closer if the pace collapses
- PRIMED#3 BATTUTA DORO (rising figs, 3rd start cycle, turf route winner at MNR) · #4 AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY (rising figs, class drop, same trip) · #5 Z DANCER (rising figs, class drop)
- PRICEnone (no non-chalk overlays on the brief)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLOff-turf move eliminates the entire shape read; inside-rail bias fails to materialize; chalk fires unbothered at 2-1
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/going condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Turf route at MNR, OClm 15000n3x, 14-horse field with a wall of early speed and an inside-rail bias, making this a high-volatility closer's race on paper. Five need-the-lead types (posts 5, 6, 7, 9, 13) project a genuine pace duel that sets up the stalkers and closers, and both co-chalks (#2 ITALIAN SYMPHONY at 2-1, a dirt-to-turf switch closer, and #14 ARCHIMEDES at 2-1, a speed horse dropping into a distance-unfriendly route with a collapsing speed fig of 65) are opposable enough to name but the sheet carries no non-chalk overlays. #3 BATTUTA DORO (ML 9-1, primed: rising figs 83-84 climbing, third start of cycle) is a closer with turf route experience at this track and a clean A/B path if the duel empties the speed as projected.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ITALIAN SYMPHONY | 2.0 | 16.4% | 18.8% | +2.4% | 0.55 | C | favoriteRising figsTop last fig | — |
| 13 | NATE THE GREAT | 3.0 | 12.3% | 14.2% | +1.9% | 0.56 | EP | Barn changeTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 14 | ARCHIMEDES | 2.0 | 16.4% | 12.1% | -4.3% | -1.23 | P | favoriteTag dropBarn change | — |
| 6 | JUJUBEE | 3.0 | 12.3% | 10.4% | -1.9% | -0.66 | E | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 5 | Z DANCER | 5.0 | 8.2% | 8.8% | +0.7% | 0.30 | E | Rising figsClass dropLed lastSame trip | — |
| 1 | LEGAL TITAN | 7.0 | 6.1% | 6.3% | +0.2% | 0.11 | P | Rising figsLed last | — |
| 3 | BATTUTA DORO | 9.0 | 4.9% | 5.3% | +0.4% | 0.28 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycle | — |
| 7 | ST LOUIE LOUIE | 10.0 | 4.5% | 4.9% | +0.4% | 0.36 | EP | Same trip | — |
| 11 | TRICKY TIGER | 10.0 | 4.5% | 4.6% | +0.1% | 0.11 | P | Class dropLed lastBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 4 | AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY | 12.0 | 3.8% | 4.5% | +0.7% | 0.70 | S | Rising figsClass dropSame trip | — |
| 10 | IF I WERE YOU | 20.0 | 2.3% | 2.9% | +0.6% | 0.86 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 8 | RUNNINGFORJOY | 15.0 | 3.1% | 2.8% | -0.3% | -0.38 | P | Same trip | — |
| 12 | XIAO LONG | 15.0 | 3.1% | 2.6% | -0.5% | -0.70 | C | 3rd start cycle | — |
| 9 | BOSLEY | 20.0 | 2.3% | 1.9% | -0.5% | -0.87 | E | — |