TDN R5 · 2026-09-28

PASSD1760y1 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#6 #5 #2)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#6CHECK THE FACTSEP
C2#5INDIAN FEVERE
C3#2LUCKY VICTORE
C4#7DRILL CITYC
C5#3SOCIAL HISTORYS
C6#4VENTURE ONC
C7#1PAINT THE TOWNC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #6 CHECK THE FACTS and #5 INDIAN FEVER and #2 LUCKY VICTOR. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #3 SOCIAL HISTORY · hurts #6 CHECK THE FACTS, #5 INDIAN FEVER, #2 LUCKY VICTOR

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #6 CHECK THE FACTS and #5 INDIAN FEVER and #2 LUCKY VICTOR hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #3 SOCIAL HISTORY · hurts #6 CHECK THE FACTS, #5 INDIAN FEVER, #2 LUCKY VICTOR

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 DRILL CITY, #3 SOCIAL HISTORY, #4 VENTURE ON, #1 PAINT THE TOWN).

Helps #7 DRILL CITY, #3 SOCIAL HISTORY, #4 VENTURE ON, #1 PAINT THE TOWN · hurts #6 CHECK THE FACTS, #5 INDIAN FEVER, #2 LUCKY VICTOR

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
5	INDIAN FEVERBOWEN ROCCO	2.0	E	Rising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-09-21 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft 6/21; 2026-09-07 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft 3/12 · barn: same as last	sClm7500 → Clm 7500	HAMM TIMOTHY	Favorite
1	PAINT THE TOWNSIMPSON JASON	2.5	C	Rising figsTag dropSame trip2025-08-25 TDN 4f 47.80 B MT ft bullet 1/19; 2025-08-16 TDN 4f 48.40 B MT ft 2/22 · barn: same as last	sClm16000 → Clm 7500	BAILEY RICARDO	Favorite
6	CHECK THE FACTSDIAZ ANGEL I	3.0	EP	Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-08-10 TDN 4f 49.20 B MT gd 3/15; 2026-04-21 BTP 5f 61.60 B MT ft 2/3 · barn: same as last	sClm7500 → Clm 7500	EDER JUSTINE	field
3	SOCIAL HISTORYCHAVEZ ALEXANDER	6.0	S	Rising figsBarn change2026-04-18 TDN 5f 60.00 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-04-08 MVR 4f 48.00 B MT ft 3/13 · barn: change vs CLINE ROBERT C	sClm7500c → Clm 7500	MURILLO RODRIGUEZ ALEJANDRO	field
2	LUCKY VICTORFERNANDEZ VICTOR R	8.0	E	Rising figs3rd start cycle2026-09-17 TDN 3f 36.00 B MT ft 2/11; 2026-09-01 TDN 3f 37.80 B MT ft 6/10 · barn: same as last	sClm7500n3l → Clm 7500	URIETA JOHANNA	primed
7	DRILL CITYSKERRETT JEFFERSON	10.0	C	Tag drop2026-07-30 TDN 4f 51.20 B MT gd 22/32; 2026-02-28 MVR 5f 63.00 B MT gd 2/3 · barn: same as last	sClm16000b → Clm 7500	MEYERS SHANE	field
4	VENTURE ONHOUGHTON T D	15.0	C	Top last paceSame trip2026-09-05 TDN 5f 63.20 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-05-30 TDN 4f 48.60 B MT ft 5/15 · barn: same as last	sClm7500n1y → Clm 7500	BAILEY RICARDO	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACETDN R5 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1760y · Clm 7500
SHAPEWall of early speed (#6 #5 #2) · honest-to-pressure pace · stalker #3 SOCIAL HISTORY is the primary beneficiary in A/B · no non-chalk price overlay exists
CHALKFavorite#5 INDIAN FEVER (ML 2) · solid · top fig 77, led last, same trip, clean pace cycle — but co-chalk at 2-1 with a crowded front
LEANWinner call#5 INDIAN FEVER · best figure, cleanest cycle, pace shape can survive if #2 and #6 empty
PRIMED#2 LUCKY VICTOR [rising_figs, third_start_cycle] — sprint-to-route concern and negative signal temper the flag; path exists only in B/C
PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlay on the brief; sheet rec is PASS
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILL#6 CHECK THE FACTS clears the field and wires it on the speed bias; #2 LUCKY VICTOR fires third-start cycle and the duel melts the chalk
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes post-ingest

Why

Dirt route at $7,500 claiming, seven starters, mild purse — moderate volatility from a wall of early speed that could collapse or grind to a clear winner.

Three horses (#6, #5, #2) project to the front and that honest-to-pressure duel shapes the race for a stalker, with chalk #5 INDIAN FEVER owning the top fig (77) and the cleanest pace profile but carrying a crowded early map against it.

#2 LUCKY VICTOR is the sheet's primed horse (rising figs, third-start cycle: last fig 74 is 21 points above the prior 53), but the sprint-to-route angle is a known negative split here and the model signal is negative (-0.56), so the path is real only if the duel empties the field in scenarios A/B — it is a note, not an overlay.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#2 LUCKY VICTORML 8.0Rising figs3rd start cycle

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
5	INDIAN FEVER	2.0	26.1%	28.0%	+1.9%	0.52	E	favoriteRising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip	—
1	PAINT THE TOWN	2.5	22.4%	22.2%	-0.1%	0.21	C	favoriteRising figsTag dropSame trip	—
6	CHECK THE FACTS	3.0	19.6%	20.5%	+1.0%	0.43	EP	Rising figsLed lastSame trip	—
3	SOCIAL HISTORY	6.0	11.2%	12.0%	+0.8%	0.51	S	Rising figsBarn change	—
2	LUCKY VICTOR	8.0	8.7%	7.1%	-1.6%	-0.56	E	Rising figs3rd start cycle	—
7	DRILL CITY	10.0	7.1%	6.3%	-0.8%	-0.26	C	Tag drop	—
4	VENTURE ON	15.0	4.9%	3.7%	-1.2%	-0.85	C	Top last paceSame trip	—