SA R5 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#4 #8 #6)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#4TESSUTOE
- C2#8FOMO JOEEP
- C3#7HONDO CROUCHP
- C4#5TEE N OFFP
- C5#1MILLBO BAGGINSP
- C6#2SPIRITUAL ADVISORS
- C7#6TIGGRRR WHITWORTHEP
- C8#9FIGHT BACKC
- C9#3SMOOTH SALUTEC
Honest pace among #4 TESSUTO and #8 FOMO JOE and #6 TIGGRRR WHITWORTH. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #7 HONDO CROUCH, #5 TEE N OFF, #1 MILLBO BAGGINS, #2 SPIRITUAL ADVISOR · hurts #4 TESSUTO, #8 FOMO JOE, #6 TIGGRRR WHITWORTH
Pressure: #4 TESSUTO and #8 FOMO JOE and #6 TIGGRRR WHITWORTH hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #7 HONDO CROUCH, #5 TEE N OFF, #1 MILLBO BAGGINS, #2 SPIRITUAL ADVISOR · hurts #4 TESSUTO, #8 FOMO JOE, #6 TIGGRRR WHITWORTH
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 SPIRITUAL ADVISOR, #9 FIGHT BACK, #3 SMOOTH SALUTE).
Helps #2 SPIRITUAL ADVISOR, #9 FIGHT BACK, #3 SMOOTH SALUTE · hurts #4 TESSUTO, #8 FOMO JOE, #6 TIGGRRR WHITWORTH
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TESSUTOROSARIO JOEL | 1.2 | E | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropTop last fig2026-09-09 SLR 4f 48.00 H MT ft bullet 1/11; 2026-09-02 SLR 4f 49.40 H MT ft 3/4 · barn: same as last | Clm40000 → Clm 16000n3l | MILLER PETER | Favorite |
| 8 | FOMO JOEMALDONADO E | 3.0 | EP | Hidden paceLed lastSame trip2026-09-12 SA 4f 49.40 H MT ft 41/54; 2026-08-29 DMR 4f 48.80 H MT ft 52/111 · barn: same as last | OC50000n1x → Clm 16000n3l | HANSON RYAN | field |
| 9 | FIGHT BACKHERNANDEZ JUAN J | 4.0 | C | 3rd start cycle2026-09-21 SA 4f 51.00 H MT ft 68/73; 2026-08-13 DMR 4f 48.00 H MT ft 9/47 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → Clm 16000n3l | MATHIS ANDY | field |
| 7 | HONDO CROUCHLEZCANO ABEL | 6.0 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleBarn changeSame trip2026-09-21 SA 5f 62.40 H MT ft 44/52; 2026-09-14 SA 4f 51.00 H MT ft 74/79 · barn: change vs PAPAPRODROMOU GEORGE | Clm10000n2lc → Clm 16000n3l | GLATT MARK | primed |
| 5 | TEE N OFFAYUSO ARMANDO | 15.0 | P | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip2026-08-12 DMR 4f 51.80 H MT ft 21/22; 2026-07-19 DMR 4f 48.40 H MT ft 52/138 · barn: same as last | Clm12500n2x → Clm 16000n3l | KNAPP STEVE | field |
| 3 | SMOOTH SALUTERISPOLI UMBERTO | 20.0 | C | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-08-30 DMR 5f 61.40 H MT ft 34/61; 2026-07-19 DMR 5f 62.40 H MT ft 75/87 · barn: same as last | Clm25000 → Clm 16000n3l | MARQUEZ ALFREDO P | field |
| 2 | SPIRITUAL ADVISORORANTES WELFIN R | 20.0 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-02 DMR 4f 49.20 H MT ft 10/20; 2026-08-26 DMR 5f 61.80 H MT ft 2/9 · barn: same as last | Clm6250n2x → Clm 16000n3l | BONDE JEFF | field |
| 1 | MILLBO BAGGINSAGUILAR ARMANDO | 30.0 | P | Tag drop2026-07-26 DMR 4f 48.60 H MT ft 27/83; 2026-07-18 DMR 4f 50.20 Hg MT ft 116/134 · barn: same as last | Clm20000n3l → Clm 16000n3l | RAUDALES JOSE | field |
| 6 | TIGGRRR WHITWORTHESPINOZA V | 30.0 | EP | Sharp workSame trip2026-09-16 SA 3f 35.80 H MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-09-07 DMR 5f 60.80 H MT ft 8/30 · barn: same as last | Clm16000n3l → Clm 16000n3l | KNAPP STEVE | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACESA R5 · 2026-09-27 · Dirt route 1760y · Clm16000n3l
- SHAPEWall of speed (#4 #8 #6) into two turns — honest/contested pace favors stalkers in A/B; chalk burning pace is the key risk
- CHALKFavorite#4 TESSUTO · short/usable — top fig 95, bull drop from $40k, rising cycle, but 1.2 ML means zero price, and it duels its own competition off the front
- LEANWinner call#4 TESSUTO · best horse in the field on class and figures despite pace risk
- PRIMED#7 HONDO CROUCH (rising figs 82→86, 3rd start cycle, barn change) — note: class rise today tempers the angle
- PRICEnone (no non-chalk overlay clears the bar per sheet)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLTESSUTO clears cleanly and converts lone speed; #7 class rise proves real and figure gap is too wide to overcome
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, track bias (no meet sample), weather, rider changes
Why
Dirt route at $16k claiming level, nine horses, moderate-to-high volatility given the wall of early speed and a massive chalk class drop from $40k. Three speed/presser types (#4, #8, #6) project a contested, honest-to-honest pace in a two-turn route, which sets up mid-pack stalkers in scenarios A and B while the chalk (#4 TESSUTO) risks burning itself on the front end despite its superiority on paper. #7 HONDO CROUCH carries two genuine ready flags (rising figs 82→86, third start of cycle) plus a barn change to Glatt, ships back to SA where he's run well, and projects as a stalker (P, post 7) with a clear path in A/B — model edge is thin at 6-1 ML but the desk marks him PRIMED; the problem is he just won for $10k and steps *up* in tag today (Clm10k→16k), which is a class rise, not a drop. --- ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TESSUTO | 1.2 | 35.8% | 41.1% | +5.3% | 1.18 | E | favoriteRising figs3rd start cycleTag dropTop last fig | — |
| 8 | FOMO JOE | 3.0 | 19.7% | 19.6% | -0.0% | 0.62 | EP | Hidden paceLed lastSame trip | — |
| 9 | FIGHT BACK | 4.0 | 15.8% | 13.8% | -2.0% | 0.09 | C | 3rd start cycle | — |
| 7 | HONDO CROUCH | 6.0 | 11.3% | 11.7% | +0.5% | 0.80 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 5 | TEE N OFF | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.6% | -0.4% | 0.33 | P | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | SMOOTH SALUTE | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.0% | -0.7% | -0.20 | C | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | SPIRITUAL ADVISOR | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.9% | -0.8% | -0.37 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 1 | MILLBO BAGGINS | 30.0 | 2.5% | 1.9% | -0.6% | -0.47 | P | Tag drop | — |
| 6 | TIGGRRR WHITWORTH | 30.0 | 2.5% | 1.3% | -1.2% | -1.99 | EP | Sharp workSame trip | — |