IND R1 · 2026-09-30
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#8 vs #7)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#8SHAYS GRAYEP
- C2#7GRACIES LAKEHOUSEEP
- C3#6GOLDEN SISSYUU
- C4#5MAUI MEOWUU
- C5#4MEAN BILLY JEANUU
- C6#1BLUEBERRY BETTYUU
- C7#2DAMA DIAMANTES
- C8#9C R ZARAS
- C9#11CHAMITAC
- C10#3CAPABILITYC
- C11#10INSTA LANEC
Honest pace among #8 SHAYS GRAY and #7 GRACIES LAKEHOUSE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #2 DAMA DIAMANTE, #9 C R ZARA · hurts #8 SHAYS GRAY, #7 GRACIES LAKEHOUSE
Pressure: #8 SHAYS GRAY and #7 GRACIES LAKEHOUSE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #2 DAMA DIAMANTE, #9 C R ZARA · hurts #8 SHAYS GRAY, #7 GRACIES LAKEHOUSE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 DAMA DIAMANTE, #9 C R ZARA, #11 CHAMITA, #3 CAPABILITY, #10 INSTA LANE).
Helps #2 DAMA DIAMANTE, #9 C R ZARA, #11 CHAMITA, #3 CAPABILITY, #10 INSTA LANE · hurts #8 SHAYS GRAY, #7 GRACIES LAKEHOUSE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SHAYS GRAYMURRILL MITCHELL | 4.5 | EP | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-09-12 TP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 46/95; 2026-08-21 TP 4f 49.80 B MT ft 65/82 · barn: same as last | fMd30000 → Md 20000 | DAVIS CHRISTOPHER | field |
| 2 | DAMA DIAMANTEMONCADA IRVING | 4.0 | S | Rising figsMSW → MCLSame trip2026-08-22 SKY 4f 51.20 B MT ft 6/7; 2026-07-12 SKY 4f 51.20 B MT ft 13/15 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md 20000 | HUMPHRIES THOMAS | Favorite |
| 7 | GRACIES LAKEHOUSEANTONGEORGI WILLIAM JR | 5.0 | EP | Top last pace2026-08-27 KEE 4f 49.00 Bg MT ft 17/22; 2026-08-01 KEE 4f 49.60 Bg MT ft 2/6 · barn: same as last | fMd40000 → Md 20000 | O'NEILL DOUG | field |
| 5 | MAUI MEOWHAZLEWOOD YEDSIT | 4.5 | U | —2026-09-25 CD 4f 48.80 Bg MT ft 34/69; 2026-09-18 CD 4f 49.00 Bg MT ft 30/67 · barn: MCCARTHY MICHAEL W (no last-line barn) | — → Md 20000 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL W | field |
| 3 | CAPABILITYPAULY SUMMER | 8.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-23 TP 4f 48.80 B MT ft 8/37; 2026-09-12 TP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 46/95 · barn: same as last | fMd40000 → Md 20000 | MOGER ED JR | field |
| 11 | CHAMITASANJUR SANTO | 10.0 | C | Rising figsTrouble lastTop last figSame trip2026-08-06 TTC 4f 49.60 Bg MT ft 17/30; 2026-07-30 TTC 4f 49.60 B MT ft 4/27 · barn: same as last | fMd20000 → Md 20000 | HERNANDEZ REY | primed |
| 6 | GOLDEN SISSYDE LA CRUZ FERNANDO | 12.0 | U | MSW → MCLSame trip2026-09-14 ELP 3f 38.40 B MT ft 18/29; 2026-08-29 ELP 4f 53.00 B MT ft 44/44 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md 20000 | FOSTER ERIC | field |
| 9 | C R ZARABEALMEAR JOSEPH C | 15.0 | S | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-08-25 IND 4f 50.20 B MT ft 12/21; 2026-07-01 IND 3f 36.20 Bg MT ft bullet 1/9 · barn: same as last | fMd20000 → Md 20000 | GONZALEZ LILIA | field |
| 4 | MEAN BILLY JEANPRESCOTT R | 15.0 | U | —2026-09-23 HPT 4f 50.60 B MT ft 6/9; 2026-09-12 HPT 4f 51.60 Bg MT ft 11/13 · barn: WALTZ BRIAN (no last-line barn) | — → Md 20000 | WALTZ BRIAN | field |
| 1 | BLUEBERRY BETTYCARRASCO VICTOR R | 20.0 | U | —2026-09-19 ELP 4f 48.60 Hg MT ft 10/36; 2026-09-12 ELP 4f 50.40 B MT my 22/29 · barn: SHAFFER SARAH E (no last-line barn) | — → Md 20000 | SHAFFER SARAH E | field |
| 10 | INSTA LANELEAHEY HANNAH | 30.0 | C | MSW → MCL2026-08-15 ELP 4f 53.00 B MT ft 49/49; 2026-08-09 ELP 4f 53.00 B MT ft 39/40 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md 20000 | HOUSE GARY | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEIND R1 · 2026-09-30 · Dirt 1210y · Md 20000
- SHAPETwo-EP duel (#8 vs #7) projects honest-to-hot pace; stalkers from inside posts favored; bias kills Posts 8+ (0% winners 30 days)
- CHALKFavorite#2 DAMA DIAMANTE · short/usable · MSW dropper, post 2 suits the bias, but turf-to-dirt switch (0% win for barn), modest figs (49), and thin signal make her short for the ask
- LEANWinner call#2 DAMA DIAMANTE · best pace path in A/B from inside post, class drop is real even if barn turf-to-dirt number is ugly
- PRIMED#11 CHAMITA (rising figs, trouble last, top fig 60) — path compromised by post 11 / 0% bias; C-scenario only
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlay clears; #11 CHAMITA is primed but post-bias kills the path and overlay=false
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLScratch of either speed horse collapses the duel and removes the setup that favors the inside stalker; live tote shortening chalk further below 4-1 confirms no value
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/going, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint maiden claimer at IND, 11-deep, moderate-to-high volatility given first-timers and surface switchers mixing with lightly raced 2-year-olds. Two EP types (#8 SHAYS GRAY, #7 GRACIES LAKEHOUSE) project a speed duel from the outside, benefiting stalkers from inside posts, while chalk #2 DAMA DIAMANTE (ML 4, post 2) is a short-priced MSW dropper with a turf-to-dirt concern and modest figures — usable but not a confident overlay. #11 CHAMITA is the sheet's primed horse with rising figs (60, top of the field), trouble last (tight, steadied at the 3/16), and a same-trip profile — but post 11 is dead against a 30-day inside rail bias where Posts 8+ have won zero percent, so the pace path in A or B is real only if the duel burns the speed and she can loop them, which is a C-leaning route.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SHAYS GRAY | 4.5 | 15.0% | 17.9% | +2.9% | 0.95 | EP | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 2 | DAMA DIAMANTE | 4.0 | 16.5% | 16.8% | +0.3% | 0.32 | S | favoriteRising figsMSW → MCLSame trip | — |
| 7 | GRACIES LAKEHOUSE | 5.0 | 13.7% | 14.5% | +0.7% | 0.45 | EP | Top last pace | — |
| 5 | MAUI MEOW | 4.5 | 15.0% | 14.1% | -0.9% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 3 | CAPABILITY | 8.0 | 9.2% | 8.1% | -1.1% | -0.27 | C | Same trip | — |
| 11 | CHAMITA | 10.0 | 7.5% | 7.7% | +0.2% | 0.37 | C | Rising figsTrouble lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 6 | GOLDEN SISSY | 12.0 | 6.3% | 5.7% | -0.6% | -0.17 | U | MSW → MCLSame trip | — |
| 9 | C R ZARA | 15.0 | 5.1% | 5.2% | +0.0% | 0.27 | S | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 4 | MEAN BILLY JEAN | 15.0 | 5.1% | 4.8% | -0.3% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 1 | BLUEBERRY BETTY | 20.0 | 3.9% | 3.7% | -0.2% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 10 | INSTA LANE | 30.0 | 2.7% | 1.5% | -1.1% | -1.93 | C | MSW → MCL | — |