PID R7 · 2026-10-07

PASSD1320y1 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

Bet now

Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find PID R7 · 2026-10-07 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#4 vs #3)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#4TURF CATE
C2#3VASAEP
C3#8HIT THAT REVIEWP
C4#2PASCHAL MOONP
C5#5NICOLES WILLP
C6#6NINJA PRIZES
C7#1BUCKS HOWLS
C8#7BODY BY CARVELC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #4 TURF CAT and #3 VASA. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #8 HIT THAT REVIEW, #2 PASCHAL MOON, #5 NICOLES WILL, #6 NINJA PRIZE, #1 BUCKS HOWL · hurts #4 TURF CAT, #3 VASA

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #4 TURF CAT and #3 VASA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #8 HIT THAT REVIEW, #2 PASCHAL MOON, #5 NICOLES WILL, #6 NINJA PRIZE, #1 BUCKS HOWL · hurts #4 TURF CAT, #3 VASA

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 NINJA PRIZE, #1 BUCKS HOWL, #7 BODY BY CARVEL).

Helps #6 NINJA PRIZE, #1 BUCKS HOWL, #7 BODY BY CARVEL · hurts #4 TURF CAT, #3 VASA

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
6	NINJA PRIZECORUJO LEONARDO	2.5	S	Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-06-02 PEN 4f 48.60 B MT ft 4/13; 2026-02-19 PEN 4f 48.80 B MT ft 10/27 · barn: same as last	Alw39600n1x → Alw 33000n1x	BEATTIE CODY	Favorite
1	BUCKS HOWLRODRIGUEZ ISRAEL O	3.0	S	3rd start cycleSame trip2026-10-02 PID 4f 49.20 B MT ft 4/9; 2026-09-11 PID 4f 49.20 B MT ft 13/20 · barn: same as last	Alw39600n1x → Alw 33000n1x	ARRIAGADA JUAN	field
3	VASAMARTINEZ GADDIEL A	3.5	EP	3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-27 PID 4f 49.40 Bg MT ft 9/13; 2026-08-16 PID 4f 46.60 B MT ft 2/3 · barn: same as last	Alw39600n1x → Alw 33000n1x	RICE KEVIN	field
2	PASCHAL MOONSPIETH S	4.0	P	Same trip2026-08-24 PID 4f 50.60 B MT ft 6/6; 2026-06-13 FL 4f 51.00 B MT ft 20/27 · barn: same as last	OC16000 → Alw 33000n1x	GONZALEZ ALDANA	field
4	TURF CATALLEN M	6.0	E	Led lastBarn changeTop last paceSame trip2026-09-24 TTC 3f 38.00 B MT ft 4/12; 2026-09-18 TTC 3f 36.00 B MT ft bullet 1/7 · barn: change vs MATEJKA PAVEL	Clm5000n3yc → Alw 33000n1x	FENNESSY JOHN	field
5	NICOLES WILLKINGSLEY TAYLOR	8.0	P	Rising figsSame trip2026-09-29 PID 4f 49.00 B MT ft 4/8; 2026-09-08 PID 4f 47.40 B MT ft 2/13 · barn: same as last	Clm12500b → Alw 33000n1x	STOKES LANCE	field
8	HIT THAT REVIEWGALLARDO ANTONIO A	10.0	P	Same trip2026-07-27 PID 3f 39.80 B MT ft 7/7; 2026-07-02 PID 4f 49.60 B MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last	Alw39600n1x → Alw 33000n1x	SPANABEL KELLY R	field
7	BODY BY CARVELPRUITT CIERA	10.0	C	Rising figsHidden paceSame trip2026-09-11 PID 4f 47.20 B MT ft 3/20; 2026-09-04 PID 4f 49.20 B MT ft 8/15 · barn: same as last	sOC12500b → Alw 33000n1x	POTTS RON G JR	primed

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACEPID R7 · 2026-10-07 · Dirt 1320y · Alw 33000n1x
SHAPEDuel pace (#4 vs #3) sets up stalkers/closers; inside rail bias favors low posts
CHALKFavorite#6 NINJA PRIZE · solid · rising figs, top fig in field, S style benefits from projected duel
LEANWinner call#6 NINJA PRIZE
PRIMED#7 BODY BY CARVEL [rising_figs, hidden_pace] — LP 104 last, figs climbing, needs the duel to fire
PRICEnone (sheet rec PASS; no non-chalk overlay certified)
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILLIf #4 TURF CAT clears lone on easy fractions, chalk stalker loses her setup; live tote unseen
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest

Why

Dirt sprint allowance at PID, a pace duel likely to set up closers, but the field-best model horse is the chalk so there's no price overlay to play.

The duel between #4 TURF CAT (E) and #3 VASA (EP) shapes Scenarios A and B in favor of stalkers/closers, and the chalk #6 NINJA PRIZE (S, ML 2.5, rising figs, top last fig) is the model's rightful winner — short, solid, no path to fade.

#7 BODY BY CARVEL (C, ML 10) is the primed price horse — rising figs (69→71→76→78), hidden pace (LP 104 last out at 1430y while caught wide 7-wide), and figs are climbing — but as a pure closer it needs the duel to fully materialize and gets the outside post 7, which is a grind; the sheet has no non-chalk overlay certified, and the model edge on #7 is actually negative (-0.016).

```
```

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#7 BODY BY CARVELML 10.0Rising figsHidden paceSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
6	NINJA PRIZE	2.5	20.5%	22.6%	+2.1%	0.59	S	favoriteRising figsTop last figSame trip	—
1	BUCKS HOWL	3.0	17.9%	18.1%	+0.1%	0.23	S	3rd start cycleSame trip	—
3	VASA	3.5	15.9%	17.9%	+2.0%	0.67	EP	3rd start cycleSame trip	—
2	PASCHAL MOON	4.0	14.4%	14.4%	+0.0%	0.22	P	Same trip	—
4	TURF CAT	6.0	10.3%	9.6%	-0.6%	-0.05	E	Led lastBarn changeTop last paceSame trip	—
5	NICOLES WILL	8.0	8.0%	6.8%	-1.1%	-0.41	P	Rising figsSame trip	—
8	HIT THAT REVIEW	10.0	6.5%	5.7%	-0.8%	-0.30	P	Same trip	—
7	BODY BY CARVEL	10.0	6.5%	4.9%	-1.6%	-0.95	C	Rising figsHidden paceSame trip	—