BTP R1 · 2026-09-30

PASSD1830yPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#6 vs #5)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#6BORIS BADENOVE
C2#5BLURTE
C3#1ANTONINOS
C4#4JET FLIGHTP
C5#2STITZYP
C6#3SANT ANTIMOC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #6 BORIS BADENOV and #5 BLURT. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #4 JET FLIGHT, #2 STITZY, #1 ANTONINO · hurts #6 BORIS BADENOV, #5 BLURT

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #6 BORIS BADENOV and #5 BLURT hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #4 JET FLIGHT, #2 STITZY, #1 ANTONINO · hurts #6 BORIS BADENOV, #5 BLURT

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 ANTONINO, #3 SANT ANTIMO).

Helps #1 ANTONINO, #3 SANT ANTIMO · hurts #6 BORIS BADENOV, #5 BLURT

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
1	ANTONINOGONZALEZ SANTIAGO	2.5	S	Barn changeSame trip2026-08-08 BTP 4f 50.80 B MT ft 29/35; 2026-05-09 GP 5f 63.20 B MT ft 7/11 · barn: change vs SMITH LARRY	Clm5000bc → Clm 5000b	ANDRADE PABLO	Favorite
5	BLURTTAVARES JAVIER	2.0	E	Rising figs2nd off layoffLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-08-27 HAW 4f 47.60 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-08-18 HAW 4f 48.00 B MT ft 1/3 · barn: same as last	Clm5000b → Clm 5000b	CRUZ RUBEN JR	Favorite
6	BORIS BADENOVMOJICA ORLANDO JR	3.5	E	Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-04-21 BTP 3f 37.00 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-04-11 TP 4f 48.80 B MT ft 38/91 · barn: same as last	Clm5000n3l → Clm 5000b	ANDRADE HUGO	field
4	JET FLIGHTCORREA YARMARIE L	4.5	P	3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-25 BTP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 5/7; 2026-08-02 HAW 4f 51.60 B MT ft 3/5 · barn: same as last	Clm5000b → Clm 5000b	GONZALEZ ARTEMIO	field
3	SANT ANTIMOLAGUNES GABRIEL	6.0	C	3rd start cycleBarn changeTop last paceSame trip2026-08-15 HPT 3f 38.00 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-08-08 HPT 4f 50.80 B MT ft 7/11 · barn: change vs HILES JEFF A	Clm5000n2y → Clm 5000b	NEWTON TROY	field
2	STITZYBLANCHE RISHAWN	12.0	P	Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-05-14 BTP 3f 37.40 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-02-06 TAM 3f 36.40 B MT ft 2/5 · barn: same as last	Clm7500b → Clm 5000b	ALESSI JAMES	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACEBTP R1 · 2026-09-30 · Dirt 1830y · Clm 5000b
SHAPETwo-speed duel (#6 vs #5) from wide posts into a speed/inside bias — sets up the rail stalker (#1) in A/B
CHALKFavorite#5 BLURT ML 2.0 — co-chalk, rising figs, 2nd off layoff, won last; usable but short; #1 ANTONINO ML 2.5 — co-chalk, solid pace figs, inside post, best pace shape; both are passes on price
LEANWinner call#1 ANTONINO — inside post, stalking style, zPace 1.96, wins if the duel softens the speed
PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse clears 2+ ready flags with an overlay)
PRICEno price (zero non-chalk overlays)
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILL#6 rates or #5 steals a clear lead uncontested — lone speed on a speed-favoring, rail-biased track makes the duel scenario collapse and the chalk fires at a price you already declined
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/going report, rider changes post-ingest

Why

Dirt route at BTP in a $5,000 claimer with six starters — moderate-to-high volatility given the two-speed duel setup and a pace-favoring, inside-rail track bias.

Speed duo #6 BORIS BADENOV and #5 BLURT project to hook up from the outside, which the 70% early-speed win rate and inside-rail bias at BTP both punish; both chalks (#1 ANTONINO at 2.5 and #5 BLURT at 2.0) have legitimate win chances but are short enough to pass on price alone.

No horse clears the 2+ primed flag threshold for non-chalk horses; the sheet returns no price overlays.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
1	ANTONINO	2.5	23.0%	28.6%	+5.6%	1.12	S	favoriteBarn changeSame trip	—
5	BLURT	2.0	26.8%	26.5%	-0.3%	0.21	E	favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffLed lastTop last figSame trip	—
6	BORIS BADENOV	3.5	17.9%	16.9%	-0.9%	0.04	E	Rising figsLed lastSame trip	—
4	JET FLIGHT	4.5	14.6%	14.7%	+0.1%	0.27	P	3rd start cycleSame trip	—
3	SANT ANTIMO	6.0	11.5%	8.2%	-3.3%	-1.08	C	3rd start cycleBarn changeTop last paceSame trip	—
2	STITZY	12.0	6.2%	5.0%	-1.1%	-0.56	P	Rising figsTag dropSame trip	—