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DEL R6 · 2026-10-01

PASST1830y2 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races
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Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find DEL R6 · 2026-10-01 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#6 #12 #10 #7)

Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#13IRISH GENTP
  2. C2#6DAW SAMAAEP
  3. C3#12FILLED WITH DESIREEP
  4. C4#10NILAMBAREP
  5. C5#4EXCELLIONP
  6. C6#7ANDOLINEP
  7. C7#8ROYAL RENEGADEP
  8. C8#1BAD BOY BUTCHS
  9. C9#2HAY GRACE BRENNANS
  10. C10#11ONE BIDS
  11. C11#9IRISH INDYGOC
  12. C12#5BACKSIDES
  13. C13#3LIBERTY BAYS
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #6 DAW SAMAA and #12 FILLED WITH DESIRE and #10 NILAMBAR and #7 ANDOLIN. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #13 IRISH GENT, #4 EXCELLION, #8 ROYAL RENEGADE, #1 BAD BOY BUTCH, #2 HAY GRACE BRENNAN, #11 ONE BID, #5 BACKSIDE, #3 LIBERTY BAY · hurts #6 DAW SAMAA, #12 FILLED WITH DESIRE, #10 NILAMBAR, #7 ANDOLIN

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #6 DAW SAMAA and #12 FILLED WITH DESIRE and #10 NILAMBAR and #7 ANDOLIN hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #13 IRISH GENT, #4 EXCELLION, #8 ROYAL RENEGADE, #1 BAD BOY BUTCH, #2 HAY GRACE BRENNAN, #11 ONE BID, #5 BACKSIDE, #3 LIBERTY BAY · hurts #6 DAW SAMAA, #12 FILLED WITH DESIRE, #10 NILAMBAR, #7 ANDOLIN

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 BAD BOY BUTCH, #2 HAY GRACE BRENNAN, #11 ONE BID, #9 IRISH INDYGO, #5 BACKSIDE, #3 LIBERTY BAY).

Helps #1 BAD BOY BUTCH, #2 HAY GRACE BRENNAN, #11 ONE BID, #9 IRISH INDYGO, #5 BACKSIDE, #3 LIBERTY BAY · hurts #6 DAW SAMAA, #12 FILLED WITH DESIRE, #10 NILAMBAR, #7 ANDOLIN

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
13IRISH GENTVILLALOBOS EDWIN4.5P3rd start cycleTag dropBarn changeSame trip2026-09-25 DEL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 10/47; 2026-08-16 CNL 3f 38.20 B MT ft 28/32 · barn: change vs HERNANDEZ SANDINO RClm30000n2l → OClm 16000GALLEGOS JOSE AFavorite
10NILAMBARKORRELL VIRGINIA5.0EPSame trip2026-08-14 PEN 4f 49.20 B MT ft 7/19; 2026-08-01 PEN 4f 48.60 B MT ft 8/20 · barn: same as lastOC16000 → OClm 16000KRAVETS BRUCE Mfield
8ROYAL RENEGADECUNDITH SARAH6.0PSame trip2026-09-26 FAI 4f 50.00 B TT ft 19/31; 2026-09-12 FAI 4f 52.00 B MT ft 16/17 · barn: same as lastOC16000 → OClm 16000MERRYMAN ELIZABETH Mfield
7ANDOLINSECOR CHELSEA6.0EPRising figs3rd start cycle2026-09-12 DEL 3f 37.00 B MT ft 3/22; 2026-08-29 DEL 4f 51.40 B MT ft 33/40 · barn: same as lastMd16000 → OClm 16000ASHBY LYNNprimed
9IRISH INDYGOTURRIETA SERGIO A8.0CRising figsSame trip2026-09-24 MTH 4f 51.00 B MT ft 15/17; 2026-08-07 MTH 4f 50.40 B MT ft 21/29 · barn: same as lastrMd16000 → OClm 16000PERKINS BEN JRfield
6DAW SAMAASCULLY ELIZABETH8.0EPSame trip2026-07-11 PRX 4f 47.00 Bg MT ft 4/64; 2026-06-06 BEL 4f 49.80 B TT ft 82/143 · barn: same as lastOC16000 → OClm 16000NESS JAMIEfield
2HAY GRACE BRENNANHANNUM CHLOE10.0SClass dropSame trip2026-08-21 CNL 4f 49.80 B MT ft 14/26; 2026-06-23 LRL 4f 50.40 B MT ft 2/8 · barn: same as lastfAlw72000n1x → OClm 16000ALLEN A FERRIS IIIfield
12FILLED WITH DESIREGROW JULIA12.0EPRising figsLed lastBarn changeTop last figTop last pace2026-09-12 PRX 3f 36.20 B MT ft 3/15; 2026-04-22 PRX 4f 48.40 B MT ft 7/42 · barn: change vs PINO MICHAEL VMd15000c → OClm 16000HAWTHORNE BOBBI ANNEfield
1BAD BOY BUTCHO'BRIEN SOPHIE12.0SRising figsSame trip2026-08-13 DEL 4f 50.40 B MT ft 5/8; 2026-07-12 DEL 4f 52.20 B MT ft 25/26 · barn: same as lastOC16000 → OClm 16000SACCO GREGORY Dfield
4EXCELLIONJOHNSON ZIO12.0PRising figs2026-08-16 MTH 4f 49.40 Bg MT ft 44/109; 2026-08-09 MTH 4f 50.40 B MT ft 68/103 · barn: same as lastMd12500 → OClm 16000AVILA JUAN CARLOSfield
5BACKSIDESOLIS EDWARD12.0SRising figsTrouble lastLed lastSame trip2026-08-21 PRX 4f 51.40 B MT gd 9/9; 2026-08-13 PRX 4f 52.20 B MT ft 15/15 · barn: same as lastMd10000 → OClm 16000SOLIS JACINTOprimed
11ONE BIDWALSH CIARA20.0S3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-07 MTH 4f 47.80 H MT ft 4/62; 2026-08-30 MTH 4f 50.40 B MT ft 66/94 · barn: same as lastOC20000 → OClm 16000HILLS TIMOTHY Afield
3LIBERTY BAYKERN CARLY15.0SSame trip2026-07-20 LRL 4f 50.00 B MT ft 4/10; 2026-06-27 LRL 4f 51.00 B MT ft 44/52 · barn: same as lastClm16000n2l → OClm 16000STETTINIUS SUZANNEfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed
  1. RACEDEL R6 · 2026-10-01 · Turf 1830y OClm 16000
  2. SHAPEWall of four pressers (#6 #7 #10 #12); honest-to-brutal pace in A and B; rail/speed bias favors inside stalkers but chalk draws post 13 — shape structurally opposes the favorite's draw
  3. CHALKFavorite#13 IRISH GENT · opposable · pace path is correct (stalker in A/B) but post 13 is dead per bias (0% wins posts 8+ on 60-day sample); solid horse, wrong draw
  4. LEANWinner call#13 IRISH GENT · best overall profile clears the field on class drop + 3rd start cycle despite the post; bias is the only structural knock
  5. PRIMED#7 ANDOLIN (rising figs, 3rd start cycle, inner post) · #5 BACKSIDE (rising figs, trouble last — figures too thin to trust at face value)
  6. PRICEnone — no non-chalk horse clears an overlay threshold (all edge values negative or negligible for non-chalk; #12 FILLED WITH DESIRE has a big last fig but is dirt-to-turf, 5-month layoff, negative barn key for 90+ days away)
  7. PLAYPrice ticketPASS
  8. KILLOff-turf move wipes the field; #12 FILLED WITH DESIRE fires fresh on the grass (dirt→turf key shows 18.75% win, small sample); live tote shows chalk compressed below 3-1
  9. MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, current going report (firm vs soft changes the shape), weather

Why

Turf route at Delaware, OClm 16k, 13-horse field with extreme pace pressure and a pronounced inside/speed bias — moderate-to-high volatility given the crowded pace map and a chalk post-13 draw.

Four EP/P types (#6, #7, #10, #12) are projected on or near the lead into the first call, making a contested pace likely in both A and B scenarios, which sets up the stalkers and closers from the inner posts — bias supports the rail, kills post 13 chalk.

#5 BACKSIDE is the sheet's primed price flag (rising figs, trouble last, led on turf debut) but the model undershoots it badly and the figures are thin; the stronger primed non-chalk is #7 ANDOLIN (rising figs 62→71, 3rd start cycle, inside post, pace path in both A and B as a presser who gets a contested fractions lift) except it is also one of the pace horses that gets hurt in A/B — #13 IRISH GENT owns the best pace path as a stalker from a terrible post, yet the bias actively penalizes post 13, and the chalk is solid.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#7 ANDOLINML 6.0Rising figs3rd start cycle
#5 BACKSIDEML 12.0Rising figsTrouble lastLed lastSame trip

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
13IRISH GENT4.513.3%15.9%+2.6%0.89Pfavorite3rd start cycleTag dropBarn changeSame trip—
10NILAMBAR5.012.2%12.5%+0.3%0.26EPSame trip—
8ROYAL RENEGADE6.010.5%10.8%+0.3%0.31PSame trip—
7ANDOLIN6.010.5%9.5%-0.9%-0.19EPRising figs3rd start cycle—
9IRISH INDYGO8.08.1%8.7%+0.6%0.46CRising figsSame trip—
6DAW SAMAA8.08.1%7.3%-0.8%-0.23EPSame trip—
2HAY GRACE BRENNAN10.06.7%6.5%-0.1%0.09SClass dropSame trip—
12FILLED WITH DESIRE12.05.6%6.5%+0.9%0.75EPRising figsLed lastBarn changeTop last figTop last pace—
1BAD BOY BUTCH12.05.6%6.2%+0.6%0.57SRising figsSame trip—
4EXCELLION12.05.6%5.9%+0.3%0.36PRising figs—
5BACKSIDE12.05.6%4.2%-1.4%-0.97SRising figsTrouble lastLed lastSame trip—
11ONE BID20.03.5%3.2%-0.3%-0.17S3rd start cycleSame trip—
3LIBERTY BAY15.04.6%2.6%-2.0%-2.14SSame trip—