TDN R1 · 2026-09-30
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find TDN R1 · 2026-09-30 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#9 #7 #6)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#9LORDBETWENTOTHORNSE
- C2#7MARKAWAYE
- C3#6MY BABY BULLETE
- C4#2GRITS N GRAVYP
- C5#3MO MO LIGHTNINGP
- C6#5BEAT THE BUZZERS
- C7#1THOUSAND CUTSC
- C8#10WANDALOUS PRIDES
- C9#8HES MY BOYS
- C10#4AFFAIR TO REMEMBERC
Honest pace among #9 LORDBETWENTOTHORNS and #7 MARKAWAY and #6 MY BABY BULLET. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #2 GRITS N GRAVY, #3 MO MO LIGHTNING, #5 BEAT THE BUZZER, #10 WANDALOUS PRIDE, #8 HES MY BOY · hurts #9 LORDBETWENTOTHORNS, #7 MARKAWAY, #6 MY BABY BULLET
Pressure: #9 LORDBETWENTOTHORNS and #7 MARKAWAY and #6 MY BABY BULLET hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #2 GRITS N GRAVY, #3 MO MO LIGHTNING, #5 BEAT THE BUZZER, #10 WANDALOUS PRIDE, #8 HES MY BOY · hurts #9 LORDBETWENTOTHORNS, #7 MARKAWAY, #6 MY BABY BULLET
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 BEAT THE BUZZER, #1 THOUSAND CUTS, #10 WANDALOUS PRIDE, #8 HES MY BOY, #4 AFFAIR TO REMEMBER).
Helps #5 BEAT THE BUZZER, #1 THOUSAND CUTS, #10 WANDALOUS PRIDE, #8 HES MY BOY, #4 AFFAIR TO REMEMBER · hurts #9 LORDBETWENTOTHORNS, #7 MARKAWAY, #6 MY BABY BULLET
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | LORDBETWENTOTHORNSBRACHO JOSE A | 2.5 | E | Led lastSame trip2026-07-20 TDN 4f 50.40 B MT ft 14/28; 2026-06-10 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft 3/12 · barn: same as last | sClm12500n2l → Clm 12500n2l | RADOSEVICH JUSTIN | Favorite |
| 3 | MO MO LIGHTNINGKEISER CHELSEY | 3.0 | P | Barn changeSame trip2026-06-11 TDN 4f 48.80 B MT ft 2/32; 2026-03-29 MVR 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/5 · barn: change vs FADLOVICH MEGAN | sClm12500n2lc → Clm 12500n2l | ZIELINSKI RICHARD | field |
| 5 | BEAT THE BUZZERBARBARAN ERIK | 4.0 | S | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-09-24 TDN 4f 50.80 B MT ft 20/33; 2026-08-12 TDN 4f 48.40 B MT ft bullet 1/9 · barn: same as last | sClm16000n2l → Clm 12500n2l | GORHAM ROBERT M | field |
| 1 | THOUSAND CUTSSALAZAR BECERRA FERNANDO | 6.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip2026-09-01 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT ft 9/12; 2026-08-22 TDN 4f 49.20 B MT ft bullet 1/9 · barn: same as last | sMd25000 → Clm 12500n2l | WOLOCHUK DAVID | primed |
| 2 | GRITS N GRAVYSIMPSON JASON | 8.0 | P | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-09-19 TDN 4f 50.80 B MT ft 10/17; 2026-07-11 TDN 4f 51.20 B MT ft 13/16 · barn: same as last | sClm16000n2l → Clm 12500n2l | CRUMLEY JEVON | field |
| 8 | HES MY BOYDIAZ ANGEL I | 10.0 | S | Rising figsTop last fig2026-06-17 TDN 4f 50.40 B MT ft 7/10; 2025-10-18 MVR 4f 50.20 B MT gd 20/24 · barn: same as last | sClm12500n2l → Clm 12500n2l | FAULKNER RODNEY C | field |
| 6 | MY BABY BULLETRIVERA L R | 15.0 | E | Sharp workSame trip2026-09-21 TDN 3f 38.20 B MT ft 1/3; 2026-07-26 TDN 4f 53.20 B MT ft 21/22 · barn: same as last | sClm12500n2l → Clm 12500n2l | JACKSON JAMES R | field |
| 4 | AFFAIR TO REMEMBERSKERRETT JEFFERSON | 15.0 | C | Trouble lastHidden paceSame trip2026-05-24 TDN 4f 49.80 B MT wf 3/6; 2026-04-17 TDN 3f 40.00 B MT my 9/10 · barn: same as last | sClm12500n2l → Clm 12500n2l | GENOVESE RICHARD L | primed |
| 7 | MARKAWAYCHAVEZ ALEXANDER | 20.0 | E | Same trip2026-02-14 MVR 4f 49.00 B D MT gd 5/24; 2026-02-04 MVR 3f 38.60 Bg MT ft 4/8 · barn: same as last | sMd12500 → Clm 12500n2l | TUMBLIN KRISTINA M | field |
| 10 | WANDALOUS PRIDEBATISTA LUIS ALBERTO | 20.0 | S | —2026-09-08 TDN 3f 37.40 B MT ft 5/6; 2026-08-26 TDN 4f 51.40 B MT ft 12/15 · barn: same as last | sClm10000n2l → Clm 12500n2l | VLAUN MANUEL | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACETDN R1 · 2026-09-30 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 12500n2l
- SHAPEWall of speed (#9 #7 #6) projecting a hot duel; stalkers/closers inherit if fractions empty; speed bias + inside rail favors whoever clears, but three-way hook from posts 6-9 is a meltdown setup
- CHALKFavorite#9 LORDBETWENTOTHORNS 2.5 — opposable; best horse on figures but post 9 on a speed-heavy map with two other E-types, rail bias works against him clearing; led and got beat at 2.5 territory before
- LEANWinner call#9 LORDBETWENTOTHORNS — still the highest signal/zSpeed/zPace; if the others fold early he survives
- PRIMED#1 THOUSAND CUTS (rising figs +12, 2nd off layoff, top E1) — path exists if he can sit second off the duel; #4 AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (trouble last, hidden LP 91) — C-only path, chaos scenario only
- PRICEno price (model shows no non-chalk overlay; sheet rec is PASS)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#9 clears uncontested from a quick scratch of one speed rival — pace map flips to lone speed and the chalk wins easy; live tote not confirmed
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint, cheap claimer (Clm 12500n2l), ten horses, moderate-to-high volatility given a wall of early speed at the top of the pace map. Three E-types (#9, #7, #6) project to hook up immediately from posts 6–9, setting up a duel that benefits mid-packers and stalkers — chalk #9 LORDBETWENTOTHORNS is solid on paper but faces a speed vs. speed meltdown from an outside post against a speed-favoring inside rail. #1 THOUSAND CUTS is the primed non-chalk: 2nd off layoff, rising figs (+12 last out), top E1 in the field — but it is a closer on the inside post in a bias that rewards early speed, and the model shows no overlay. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | LORDBETWENTOTHORNS | 2.5 | 22.0% | 26.4% | +4.4% | 1.09 | E | favoriteLed lastSame trip | — |
| 3 | MO MO LIGHTNING | 3.0 | 19.2% | 19.9% | +0.6% | 0.48 | P | Barn changeSame trip | — |
| 5 | BEAT THE BUZZER | 4.0 | 15.4% | 15.1% | -0.3% | 0.27 | S | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 1 | THOUSAND CUTS | 6.0 | 11.0% | 10.1% | -0.9% | 0.02 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 2 | GRITS N GRAVY | 8.0 | 8.5% | 7.9% | -0.7% | 0.03 | P | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 8 | HES MY BOY | 10.0 | 7.0% | 6.4% | -0.6% | -0.02 | S | Rising figsTop last fig | — |
| 6 | MY BABY BULLET | 15.0 | 4.8% | 4.7% | -0.1% | 0.26 | E | Sharp workSame trip | — |
| 4 | AFFAIR TO REMEMBER | 15.0 | 4.8% | 3.9% | -0.9% | -0.43 | C | Trouble lastHidden paceSame trip | — |
| 7 | MARKAWAY | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.7% | +0.1% | 0.44 | E | Same trip | — |
| 10 | WANDALOUS PRIDE | 20.0 | 3.7% | 2.0% | -1.7% | -2.14 | S | — |