GP R6 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Pace unknown — not enough call1/e1
Pressure unknown. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#6CLASSIC ROADSTERUU
- C2#1EARTHLY DELIGHTSUU
- C3#3FIREBALLERUU
- C4#2IRISH BRIGADEUU
- C5#5HANGMANUU
- C6#7SULTAN JAKUU
- C7#4SUBTLE SIRP
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #4 SUBTLE SIR · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #4 SUBTLE SIR · hurts —
Chaos: the map fails and the race becomes a scramble. No dedicated closer on the file.
Helps — · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CLASSIC ROADSTERDE LA CRUZ FERNANDO | 1.8 | U | Led lastTop last figSame trip2026-09-19 GP 4f 47.80 Bg MT my 2/28; 2026-09-13 GP 4f 49.80 B MT ft 13/16 · barn: same as last | Moc50000 → Md Sp Wt | ORSENO JOSEPH F | Favorite |
| 3 | FIREBALLERHUSBANDS MICAH J | 2.5 | U | —2026-10-02 PMM 4f 47.20 Bg MT ft 3/28; 2026-09-25 PMM 4f 46.80 B MT ft 2/39 · barn: JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR | Favorite |
| 2 | IRISH BRIGADEHERRERA DIEGO A | 4.5 | U | —2026-09-26 GP 4f 47.80 Bg MT ft 13/70; 2026-09-13 GP 4f 47.60 Bg MT ft 4/44 · barn: SMULLEN HEATHER (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | SMULLEN HEATHER | field |
| 1 | EARTHLY DELIGHTSHUGHES RASHEED | 4.0 | U | Same trip2026-10-02 PMM 3f 37.00 B MT ft 7/15; 2026-09-04 PMM 4f 48.20 Bg MT ft 3/22 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR | field |
| 5 | HANGMANLEON SONNY | 8.0 | U | —2026-10-04 GP 4f 49.20 B MT ft 15/38; 2026-09-28 GP 4f 49.80 B MT ft 24/34 · barn: ORSENO JOSEPH F (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | ORSENO JOSEPH F | field |
| 7 | SULTAN JAKCAMACHO SAMY | 8.0 | U | —2026-10-03 GP 5f 60.40 B MT gd 3/15; 2026-09-26 GP 5f 61.20 B MT ft 5/20 · barn: SANO ANTONIO (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | SANO ANTONIO | field |
| 4 | SUBTLE SIRMENESES MARCOS | 20.0 | P | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip2026-09-19 PMM 4f 49.60 B MT ft 32/42; 2026-09-06 PMM 4f 50.60 B MT ft 26/39 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | PALMER NICHOLAS | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEGP R6 · 2026-10-10 · Dirt 1100y · Md Sp Wt
- SHAPEUnknown pace / probable crawl; inside-rail bias favors posts 1-3; speed and presser styles dominant historically
- CHALKFavorite#6 CLASSIC ROADSTER · solid · top fig 87, dueled last and held 2nd, field's best speed metric, Orseno sharp works — just too short at 1.8
- LEANWinner call#6 CLASSIC ROADSTER · best credentials on the page at this surface/distance
- PRIMEDnone (SUBTLE SIR has two signals but model edge is negative and ML is 20-1 with no overlay)
- PRICEno price — no non-chalk horse carries a positive model edge
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLA debut horse breaks on top and steals a crawl; CLASSIC ROADSTER repeats the "no match" pattern from last out
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes, debut horse pedigree/works context beyond what is printed
Why
Dirt sprint maiden special weight at GP, seven starters mostly first-timers with no pace data — volatility is high given a field of debut horses and a single returner with a modest fig. Pace map is unknown for six of seven horses, leaving a likely crawl where #4 SUBTLE SIR (the only presser with call data) sits second and benefits if the field idles; chalk #6 CLASSIC ROADSTER dueled last out and posted the field's top fig at 87, making it solid but unplayable at 1.8 ML. No horse reaches the two-flag primed threshold — SUBTLE SIR shows rising figs (+6, 62→68) and top E1, which is two signals, but its pace path exists only in the crawl scenario and the 20-1 ML implies a model probability of just 3.3%, well below any fair-value floor. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CLASSIC ROADSTER | 1.8 | 27.6% | 33.2% | +5.6% | 0.92 | U | favoriteLed lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 3 | FIREBALLER | 2.5 | 22.1% | 21.1% | -1.0% | -0.00 | U | favorite | — |
| 2 | IRISH BRIGADE | 4.5 | 14.0% | 13.4% | -0.6% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 1 | EARTHLY DELIGHTS | 4.0 | 15.4% | 12.6% | -2.9% | -0.65 | U | Same trip | — |
| 5 | HANGMAN | 8.0 | 8.6% | 8.2% | -0.4% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 7 | SULTAN JAK | 8.0 | 8.6% | 8.2% | -0.4% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 4 | SUBTLE SIR | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.4% | -0.28 | P | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip | — |