MNR R1 · 2026-10-11
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#14 #5 #10 #7)
Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#14CLAIRES DARLINGE
- C2#5BLACK BETYE
- C3#10FAIR TRADEEP
- C4#7BUXTEHUDEEP
- C5#9WORTH CONSIDERINGP
- C6#12HURRICANE DEBBIES
- C7#3PRINCESS CLEMMIEP
- C8#13TALL GIRLS
- C9#1MACHEN REIGNSS
- C10#2PASTA SALAD RHONDAC
- C11#8KAIYAS SONGC
- C12#6VINO ROSATOS
- C13#11Q BONDS
- C14#4PRIYANKAC
Honest pace among #14 CLAIRES DARLING and #5 BLACK BETY and #10 FAIR TRADE and #7 BUXTEHUDE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #9 WORTH CONSIDERING, #3 PRINCESS CLEMMIE, #12 HURRICANE DEBBIE, #13 TALL GIRL, #1 MACHEN REIGNS, #6 VINO ROSATO, #11 Q BOND · hurts #14 CLAIRES DARLING, #5 BLACK BETY, #10 FAIR TRADE, #7 BUXTEHUDE
Pressure: #14 CLAIRES DARLING and #5 BLACK BETY and #10 FAIR TRADE and #7 BUXTEHUDE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #9 WORTH CONSIDERING, #3 PRINCESS CLEMMIE, #12 HURRICANE DEBBIE, #13 TALL GIRL, #1 MACHEN REIGNS, #6 VINO ROSATO, #11 Q BOND · hurts #14 CLAIRES DARLING, #5 BLACK BETY, #10 FAIR TRADE, #7 BUXTEHUDE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#12 HURRICANE DEBBIE, #13 TALL GIRL, #1 MACHEN REIGNS, #2 PASTA SALAD RHONDA, #8 KAIYAS SONG, #6 VINO ROSATO, #11 Q BOND, #4 PRIYANKA).
Helps #12 HURRICANE DEBBIE, #13 TALL GIRL, #1 MACHEN REIGNS, #2 PASTA SALAD RHONDA, #8 KAIYAS SONG, #6 VINO ROSATO, #11 Q BOND, #4 PRIYANKA · hurts #14 CLAIRES DARLING, #5 BLACK BETY, #10 FAIR TRADE, #7 BUXTEHUDE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BLACK BETYDIAZ R | 2.0 | E | Class dropLed last2026-05-11 MNR 4f 48.60 B MT ft 6/20; 2026-02-18 MVR 4f 50.60 B MT gd 7/12 · barn: same as last | fAlw21560b → Clm 7500b | LOPEZ CARLOS A | Favorite |
| 12 | HURRICANE DEBBIERIVERA L R | 3.0 | S | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-19 CT 4f 48.80 B MT ft 6/19; 2026-08-15 CT 4f 48.00 B MT ft 3/30 · barn: same as last | fOC25000b → Clm 7500b | FARRIOR ANTHONY | field |
| 14 | CLAIRES DARLINGOLIVEROS CHARLE | 3.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastBarn change2026-08-17 PID 5f 59.40 B MT ft 1/3; 2026-06-24 PID 4f 47.20 B MT ft bullet 1/10 · barn: change vs GUCIARDO JOHN | fClm6250b → Clm 7500b | GUCIARDO KATHY | field |
| 1 | MACHEN REIGNSTAPARA LUIS | 3.0 | S | Tag drop2026-05-01 MNR 4f 50.60 B MT ft 5/10; 2026-03-31 MNR 3f 37.40 B MT ft 8/25 · barn: same as last | fClm15000n3x → Clm 7500b | MARTINEZ TOMAS | field |
| 13 | TALL GIRLANDERSON MCKENNA | 5.0 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-18 MNR 3f 38.80 B MT ft 6/6; 2025-07-27 HAW 3f 39.00 B MT gd 11/15 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n1y → Clm 7500b | ROMERO JOSE A | field |
| 10 | FAIR TRADEGREENIDGE ELIJAH | 6.0 | EP | Class dropTop last paceSame trip2025-11-24 CT 3f 35.60 B MT ft bullet 1/8; 2025-10-11 CT 3f 36.80 B MT ft 9/26 · barn: same as last | fAlw19200n1x → Clm 7500b | POOLE JAMI C | pace + drop |
| 3 | PRINCESS CLEMMIEBATISTA LUIS ALBERTO | 7.0 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleClass dropTop last fig2026-06-27 LRL 3f 39.00 B MT ft 18/19; 2026-06-06 LRL 4f 52.40 B MT ft 44/46 · barn: same as last | fAlw21560b → Clm 7500b | BOUCHER LILITH | primed |
| 7 | BUXTEHUDEPARKER D L | 10.0 | EP | Tag dropSame trip2026-06-23 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft 4/17; 2026-04-29 MNR 4f 49.40 B D MT ft 4/17 · barn: same as last | fClm15000n3x → Clm 7500b | JOHNSON JENNIFER A | field |
| 2 | PASTA SALAD RHONDAHALDAR HUMBERTO | 9.0 | C | Same trip2026-05-31 MNR 4f 50.20 B MT ft 10/14; 2025-06-26 HAW 3f 38.20 B MT ft 8/9 · barn: same as last | fClm4000b → Clm 7500b | CASTILLO JABDIEL | field |
| 8 | KAIYAS SONGBARBARAN ERIK | 15.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-04-07 MNR 4f 51.00 B MT ft 32/37; 2026-03-28 MNR 3f 38.80 B MT ft 15/20 · barn: same as last | fClm7500b → Clm 7500b | WITHEROW WILLIAM G | field |
| 6 | VINO ROSATOVILCHEZ MAIKOL | 12.0 | S | —2026-07-27 PID 4f 51.40 B MT ft 10/12; 2026-07-20 PID 3f 37.40 B MT ft 4/8 · barn: same as last | fClm4000n2x → Clm 7500b | VALDEZ MOISES | field |
| 9 | WORTH CONSIDERINGRAMGEET A R | 20.0 | P | Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip2026-08-13 CNL 3f 36.80 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-08-01 CNL 3f 38.00 B MT ft 9/14 · barn: same as last | fClm7500 → Clm 7500b | RAMGEET TINA | primed |
| 4 | PRIYANKAMARTINEZ MIGUEL L | 20.0 | C | Rising figs2026-05-29 MNR 3f 38.00 B MT ft 4/7; 2026-05-22 MNR 4f 50.40 B MT ft 5/6 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n4x → Clm 7500b | BOUALI WAJDI | field |
| 11 | Q BONDGONZALEZ KEVIN | 20.0 | S | Rising figs2026-08-16 BTP 3f 38.00 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-07-05 BTP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 5/8 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n4x → Clm 7500b | AGUIRRE JUAN R | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R1 · 2026-10-11 · Turf 1540y · Clm 7500b
- SHAPEWall of early speed guarantees a duel/meltdown; stalkers and pressers inherit
- CHALKFavorite#5 BLACK BETY · opposable · pace style into a four-way speed duel on turf, eased last out, Sprnt-Rte-Sprnt 0% win ROI -2.00
- LEANWinner call#3 PRINCESS CLEMMIE · 4 ready flags, top fig, inside post, presser path in A and B
- PRIMED#3 PRINCESS CLEMMIE (rising_figs, third_start_cycle, class_drop, top_last_fig); #9 WORTH CONSIDERING (rising_figs, trouble_last — but ML 20, model underlay, no price overlay flagged)
- PRICEno price (sheet rec PASS; no non-chalk overlay clears the model threshold)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#5 BLACK BETY clears cleanly on a solo lead and the turf trip plays to her lone-speed fig of 70; or a bias-driven wire job buries the presser path
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, going condition (firm vs soft changes the pace picture materially), weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Turf sprint claimer at MNR with a 14-horse field and a wall of early speed (#14, #5, #10, #7) virtually guarantees an honest-to-meltdown pace, making this a high-volatility race where the front runners are their own worst enemies. Chalk is #5 BLACK BETY (ML 2), a sharp class drop from fAlw into Clm7500b with lead tactics and speed bias working against her in a duel, but she's the best horse on paper and the model overlay is thin; the pace map is clearly against her surviving it on turf. #3 PRINCESS CLEMMIE is the sheet's primed horse with four ready flags (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle, class drop, top fig of 71) and a presser style that puts her stalking the carnage from post 3 with an inside-rail advantage, exactly the path that wins here in scenarios A and B.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Pace + drop
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BLACK BETY | 2.0 | 16.7% | 19.6% | +2.9% | 0.92 | E | favoriteClass dropLed last | — |
| 12 | HURRICANE DEBBIE | 3.0 | 12.6% | 13.6% | +1.0% | 0.59 | S | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 14 | CLAIRES DARLING | 3.0 | 12.6% | 12.7% | +0.1% | 0.31 | E | Rising figsLed lastBarn change | — |
| 1 | MACHEN REIGNS | 3.0 | 12.6% | 12.5% | -0.0% | 0.27 | S | Tag drop | — |
| 13 | TALL GIRL | 5.0 | 8.4% | 7.6% | -0.8% | -0.12 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 10 | FAIR TRADE | 6.0 | 7.2% | 7.5% | +0.3% | 0.46 | EP | Class dropTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | PRINCESS CLEMMIE | 7.0 | 6.3% | 5.7% | -0.5% | -0.09 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleClass dropTop last fig | — |
| 7 | BUXTEHUDE | 10.0 | 4.6% | 4.7% | +0.2% | 0.42 | EP | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | PASTA SALAD RHONDA | 9.0 | 5.0% | 4.4% | -0.6% | -0.22 | C | Same trip | — |
| 8 | KAIYAS SONG | 15.0 | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.0% | 0.24 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 6 | VINO ROSATO | 12.0 | 3.9% | 2.6% | -1.3% | -1.34 | S | — | |
| 9 | WORTH CONSIDERING | 20.0 | 2.4% | 2.2% | -0.2% | -0.14 | P | Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 4 | PRIYANKA | 20.0 | 2.4% | 2.0% | -0.4% | -0.41 | C | Rising figs | — |
| 11 | Q BOND | 20.0 | 2.4% | 1.8% | -0.6% | -0.89 | S | Rising figs | — |