MNR R4 · 2026-09-28

BETD1320y1 price overlay(s)PLAY lookRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find MNR R4 · 2026-09-28 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#2 #5 #6 #4)

Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#2STEPNOSKIE
C2#5MIGHTY MOE
C3#6ALIGNEP
C4#4SOUPERSILVERDOLLAREP
C5#3MOON FACTORS
C6#1BOSSMEP
C7#7MISSION MIKEC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #2 STEPNOSKI and #5 MIGHTY MO and #6 ALIGN and #4 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #1 BOSSME, #3 MOON FACTOR · hurts #2 STEPNOSKI, #5 MIGHTY MO, #6 ALIGN, #4 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #2 STEPNOSKI and #5 MIGHTY MO and #6 ALIGN and #4 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #1 BOSSME, #3 MOON FACTOR · hurts #2 STEPNOSKI, #5 MIGHTY MO, #6 ALIGN, #4 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 MOON FACTOR, #7 MISSION MIKE).

Helps #3 MOON FACTOR, #7 MISSION MIKE · hurts #2 STEPNOSKI, #5 MIGHTY MO, #6 ALIGN, #4 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
5	MIGHTY MONEGRON LUIS	3.0	E	Rising figsLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-05-09 BTP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 21/26; 2026-04-21 BTP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 12/29 · barn: same as last	Clm5000n2x → Alw 3200s	VAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOS	overlay
4	SOUPERSILVERDOLLARRAMGEET A R	2.5	EP	—2026-03-22 MNR 4f 48.80 B MT ft 5/17; 2026-03-15 MNR 3f 36.60 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last	Alw4000s → Alw 3200s	PEASE HARRY	Favorite
6	ALIGNTAPARA BRANDON	3.5	EP	Same trip2025-09-23 CT 3f 37.20 B MT ft 2/5; 2025-06-19 FAI 5f 64.00 B TT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last	Clm3200n3x → Alw 3200s	BERNARDINI JAY P	field
2	STEPNOSKIARROYO N JR	4.5	E	Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-03-26 MVR 3f 38.80 B MT gd 4/8; 2026-03-03 MVR 3f 37.20 B MT my 2/2 · barn: same as last	Clm3200n4x → Alw 3200s	BERNARDINI JAY P	field
1	BOSSMEYARANGA Y	8.0	P	Rising figs2026-02-28 CT 3f 36.20 B MT ft 4/30; 2026-02-21 CT 3f 38.00 B MT my 4/5 · barn: same as last	Clm5000n4x → Alw 3200s	ARRIAGA MARIO	field
3	MOON FACTORGOMEZ ALEJANDRO	10.0	S	Same trip2026-07-31 CNL 3f 36.60 B MT ft 3/5; 2026-06-28 LS 3f 37.40 B MT ft 10/25 · barn: same as last	Clm25000b → Alw 3200s	CORDERO-LOPEZ ALEXIS	field
7	MISSION MIKEDIAZ R	15.0	C	3rd start cycle2026-06-18 LRL 4f 50.00 B MT ft 7/23; 2026-03-04 TAM 4f 49.00 B MT ft 4/29 · barn: same as last	Clm3200n2x → Alw 3200s	VAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOS	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade

RACEMNR R4 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt / 1320y / Alw 3200s
SHAPEWall of early/pressers — extreme pace; stalkers and the fittest speed are favored
CHALKFavorite#4 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR · opposable · route-to-sprint, no sprint-fig edge, trainer 0% sprints at meet
LEANWinner call#5 MIGHTY MO · top fig (88), won last, best early pace figure in field, model overlay
PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse cleared 2+ flags)
PRICE#5 MIGHTY MO · ML 3 · edge 0.041 (morning line only, no tote stamp)
PLAYPrice ticket#5 MIGHTY MO · win · min 3-1 (at 5-2 or shorter, pass)
KILLChalk clears the pace duel cleanly from post 4 and wire-to-wires at a short number; #2 STEPNOSKI hooks #5 early and both empty
MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition day-of, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint allowance at MNR, 1320y, modest purse — moderate-to-high volatility given a wall of four early/pressing types crowding the pace.

Shape is a speed duel: #2, #5, #6, and #4 all project near the front, creating extreme pressure that sets up stalkers #1 and #3; chalk #4 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR is route-to-sprint, negative trainer sprint ROI, and figures to be buried in the pace flow — **opposable**.

No primed horse cleared two flags at a price; however, #5 MIGHTY MO carries the only model overlay (edge 0.041), owns the top last fig (88, up 23 points), led at the first call last out, and — critically — is the one speed horse whose last effort actually won, meaning if this duel melts he is the one who already proved he can survive a fast pace at this track.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#5 MIGHTY MO+4.1%ML 3.0Rising figsLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
5	MIGHTY MO	3.0	20.8%	24.9%	+4.1%	1.10	E	Rising figsLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip	—
4	SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR	2.5	23.7%	24.5%	+0.8%	0.50	EP	favorite	—
6	ALIGN	3.5	18.5%	18.1%	-0.3%	0.30	EP	Same trip	—
2	STEPNOSKI	4.5	15.1%	15.5%	+0.5%	0.49	E	Rising figsLed lastSame trip	—
1	BOSSME	8.0	9.2%	7.7%	-1.5%	-0.35	P	Rising figs	—
3	MOON FACTOR	10.0	7.5%	5.9%	-1.7%	-0.62	S	Same trip	—
7	MISSION MIKE	15.0	5.2%	3.3%	-1.9%	-1.41	C	3rd start cycle	—