FP R7 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#10 vs #8)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#10LAST MOONE
- C2#8CHI TOWN PRINCEE
- C3#6AWESOME OUTLAWP
- C4#4LARRY THE POETP
- C5#3TRICKY MOMENTS
- C6#1MR SWEETSC
- C7#7SOLOMON VANDYS
- C8#9HEARTBREAK GAMEC
- C9#5SEVERANCEC
- C10#2ASPIRING COMEDIANC
Honest pace among #10 LAST MOON and #8 CHI TOWN PRINCE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 AWESOME OUTLAW, #4 LARRY THE POET, #3 TRICKY MOMENT, #7 SOLOMON VANDY · hurts #10 LAST MOON, #8 CHI TOWN PRINCE
Pressure: #10 LAST MOON and #8 CHI TOWN PRINCE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 AWESOME OUTLAW, #4 LARRY THE POET, #3 TRICKY MOMENT, #7 SOLOMON VANDY · hurts #10 LAST MOON, #8 CHI TOWN PRINCE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 TRICKY MOMENT, #1 MR SWEETS, #7 SOLOMON VANDY, #9 HEARTBREAK GAME, #5 SEVERANCE, #2 ASPIRING COMEDIAN).
Helps #3 TRICKY MOMENT, #1 MR SWEETS, #7 SOLOMON VANDY, #9 HEARTBREAK GAME, #5 SEVERANCE, #2 ASPIRING COMEDIAN · hurts #10 LAST MOON, #8 CHI TOWN PRINCE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CHI TOWN PRINCETAVARES JAVIER | 1.8 | E | Tag dropLed lastSame trip2026-10-01 FP 4f 50.80 B MT ft 8/18; 2026-07-30 FP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 4/15 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n4l → Clm 5000n4l | RODRIGUEZ JOSE G | Favorite |
| 1 | MR SWEETSFERNANDEZ MIGUEL | 2.5 | C | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-08-18 FP 4f 50.40 B MT ft 14/37; 2026-08-08 FP 4f 53.20 B MT ft 24/25 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n2y → Clm 5000n4l | HERNANDEZ ARMANDO | Favorite |
| 10 | LAST MOONBENDEZU ALEXANDER | 3.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-09-12 FP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 27/41; 2026-07-23 FP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n3l → Clm 5000n4l | RODRIGUEZ EDUARDO | field |
| 9 | HEARTBREAK GAMEORTEGA HAROLD JOSEPH | 9.0 | C | Rising figsTag drop2026-04-06 FP 4f 50.20 B MT ft 6/7; 2026-03-21 FP 3f 37.20 B MT ft 12/25 · barn: same as last | Clm6250n5l → Clm 5000n4l | LYNCH HARRY E | field |
| 4 | LARRY THE POETORM CORY | 12.0 | P | Tag dropSame trip2026-09-12 FP 4f 50.40 B MT ft 16/41; 2026-07-14 FP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 10/18 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n4l → Clm 5000n4l | RODRIGUEZ JOSE G | field |
| 5 | SEVERANCEDIEGO JAVIER | 20.0 | C | Rising figs2026-09-12 FP 3f 38.80 B MT ft 7/12; 2026-05-12 FP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 9/32 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n4l → Clm 5000n4l | THURMAN RHONDA | field |
| 7 | SOLOMON VANDYARANGUREN JOHANIS | 20.0 | S | Rising figsTrouble last2026-06-19 FP 3f 38.00 B MT ft 11/13; 2026-05-12 FP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 21/32 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n4l → Clm 5000n4l | STRAUB MARVEL | primed |
| 2 | ASPIRING COMEDIANMARTINEZ BRODY | 20.0 | C | —2026-06-16 FP 4f 49.40 B MT ft 9/15; 2026-05-05 PRM 5f 62.80 B MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n4l → Clm 5000n4l | ANDERSON MARK W | field |
| 3 | TRICKY MOMENTARRIETA REYNIER | 30.0 | S | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-10-01 FP 5f 64.20 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-08-05 FP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 8/12 · barn: same as last | Clm6250n4l → Clm 5000n4l | MARTIN DAWN | field |
| 6 | AWESOME OUTLAWFELIX J E | 30.0 | P | Rising figsTag dropLed last2026-08-25 FP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 6/14; 2026-07-24 FP 4f 49.00 B MT ft 2/9 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n4l → Clm 5000n4l | ANDERSON TRACY | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFP R7 · 2026-10-10 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 5000n4l
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#10 vs #8); pace-stalkers get best of A/B; no non-chalk price overlay exists
- CHALKFavorite#8 CHI TOWN PRINCE (1.8 ML) — short/opposable on pace; drops from Clm10000, led and faded last; duel risk high. #1 MR SWEETS (2.5 ML) — solid on top fig (75) and rising cycle; C-style needs the duel to develop; acceptable chalk
- LEANWinner call#1 MR SWEETS — top field fig (75), rising cycle (+9 vs prior 66), benefits from A/B pace scenario as a closer with a clean inside post
- PRIMED#7 SOLOMON VANDY — rising figs (+18), trouble last (bumped/fanned 5-wide); stalker style fits the duel shape in A/B, but negative model edge and weak speed figures cap the case
- PRICENo non-chalk overlays — sheet rec is PASS
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLSpeed duel fails to materialize (lone speed clears), or #8 gets a clean trip and steals the race wire-to-wire
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, track bias (no FP meet sample), weather, rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint at cheap claiming level (Clm 5000n4l, FP, 1320y) with a full field of ten and high volatility from a two-speed pace scenario. Two need-the-lead types (#10 LAST MOON and #8 CHI TOWN PRINCE) project to duel, handing the race to pace-stalkers in scenarios A and B, though both chalks (#8 at 1.8 ML, #1 MR SWEETS at 2.5 ML) are short enough that no non-chalk overlay clears the model. The sheet's lone primed horse, #7 SOLOMON VANDY (rising figs +18, trouble last: broke in/bumped/fanned 5-wide), is a stalker with a live A/B path if the duel materializes, but model edge is negative (−0.010) and the 20 ML does not offset the weak speed figures and negative zSpeed/zPace factors. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CHI TOWN PRINCE | 1.8 | 28.0% | 29.9% | +2.0% | 0.81 | E | favoriteTag dropLed lastSame trip | — |
| 1 | MR SWEETS | 2.5 | 22.4% | 24.5% | +2.2% | 0.91 | C | favoriteRising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 10 | LAST MOON | 3.0 | 19.6% | 20.7% | +1.1% | 0.77 | E | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 9 | HEARTBREAK GAME | 9.0 | 7.8% | 7.1% | -0.8% | 0.12 | C | Rising figsTag drop | — |
| 4 | LARRY THE POET | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.3% | -0.7% | 0.03 | P | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 5 | SEVERANCE | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.4% | 0.11 | C | Rising figs | — |
| 7 | SOLOMON VANDY | 20.0 | 3.7% | 2.7% | -1.0% | -0.71 | S | Rising figsTrouble last | — |
| 2 | ASPIRING COMEDIAN | 20.0 | 3.7% | 2.3% | -1.5% | -1.44 | C | — | |
| 3 | TRICKY MOMENT | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.2% | -0.3% | 0.00 | S | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 6 | AWESOME OUTLAW | 30.0 | 2.5% | 1.9% | -0.6% | -0.62 | P | Rising figsTag dropLed last | — |