WRD R2 · 2026-10-06
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#2 vs #3)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2FANCY MOUNTAIN MANEP
- C2#3WE CALL HIM BOYEP
- C3#5ONE HELLUVA CANDYUU
- C4#4PRAIRIERRIDERUU
- C5#6RHAEGALS ROSES
- C6#1EXPLOITED JESSC
Honest pace among #2 FANCY MOUNTAIN MAN and #3 WE CALL HIM BOY. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 RHAEGALS ROSE · hurts #2 FANCY MOUNTAIN MAN, #3 WE CALL HIM BOY
Pressure: #2 FANCY MOUNTAIN MAN and #3 WE CALL HIM BOY hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 RHAEGALS ROSE · hurts #2 FANCY MOUNTAIN MAN, #3 WE CALL HIM BOY
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 RHAEGALS ROSE, #1 EXPLOITED JESS).
Helps #6 RHAEGALS ROSE, #1 EXPLOITED JESS · hurts #2 FANCY MOUNTAIN MAN, #3 WE CALL HIM BOY
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | RHAEGALS ROSEQUIROZ BONIFACIO | 2.0 | S | Same trip2026-09-14 WRD 3f 35.00 H MT ft 1/3; 2026-02-27 RP 3f 37.40 H MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | CRAWFORD TYLER COLE | Favorite |
| 2 | FANCY MOUNTAIN MANCALDERON FRANCISCO | 2.5 | EP | Same trip2026-09-03 WRD 1f 11.40 H MT ft 6/17; 2026-04-14 RP 3f 36.80 H MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | CAPPS STACEY | Favorite |
| 5 | ONE HELLUVA CANDYESCOBEDO EDWIN G | 3.0 | U | 2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip2026-09-14 WRD 3f 35.40 H MT ft 2/3; 2026-08-12 RP 3f 35.60 H MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | CRAWFORD TYLER COLE | overlay |
| 4 | PRAIRIERRIDERMARTINEZ ARAM S | 6.0 | U | Barn changeSame trip2026-09-29 WRD 1f 12.40 Hg MT ft 9/13; 2026-09-12 WRD 1f 12.00 Hg MT ft 6/18 · barn: change vs HYBSHA R ALLEN | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | ESQUEDA ROBERT | field |
| 1 | EXPLOITED JESSERNST B L | 8.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-13 WRD 3f 36.60 H MT ft 1/1; 2026-04-20 WRD 3f 36.40 H MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | NICHOLS ANTHONY | field |
| 3 | WE CALL HIM BOYBENN CORDARELTON J | 10.0 | EP | Led lastBarn changeSame trip2026-09-08 WRD 3f 36.80 H MT ft 1/1; 2026-08-23 WRD 3f 35.00 H MT ft 1/2 · barn: change vs WALKER GARY K | Md10000 → Md Sp Wt | HARAWAY DEBBIE | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEWRD R2 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 870y · Md Sp Wt
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#2 vs #3) favors stalker/closer; pace collapse risk is real
- CHALKFavorite#6 RHAEGALS ROSE · solid · best figures, stalker style, maps directly into A and B, sits right behind a likely duel
- LEANWinner call#6 RHAEGALS ROSE · winner call; duel sets up perfectly for this stalker
- PRIMEDnone (no horse clears 2+ ready flags; #5 has 2nd-off-layoff + top fig but style is U)
- PRICE#5 ONE HELLUVA CANDY (ML 3, edge 0.026)
- PLAYPrice ticket#5 ONE HELLUVA CANDY · min 3-1 · win — if the pace duel fires and this horse finds a stalking path from post 5, the top zSpeed and 2nd-off pattern give a sliver of overlay over the morning line; at 5-2 or shorter, pass
- KILL#5 style unknown — if it breaks and duels with #2/#3 it burns out; Crawford barn is 0-for-19 on the meet; if #6 steals a clean trip uncontested, the chalk wins easily and the overlay evaporates
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, #5 running style confirmation, rider changes
Why
Dirt 870y maiden special weight sprint at Woodlands, six horses, moderate-to-high volatility given the duel setup and maiden class. Two EP types (#2, #3) project a speed duel that shapes the race strongly for the lone stalker (#6 RHAEGALS ROSE, chalk at 2-1), who owns the best recent figures in the field and a clear path in A and B. #5 ONE HELLUVA CANDY is the only model overlay (edge 0.026, ML 3), carries the top zSpeed flag, a top fig in the field (76), and is 2nd off a layoff — two ready signals — but style is unknown and the pace path from post 5 needs to be assumed rather than confirmed.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | RHAEGALS ROSE | 2.0 | 27.5% | 29.3% | +1.9% | 0.48 | S | favoriteSame trip | — |
| 2 | FANCY MOUNTAIN MAN | 2.5 | 23.5% | 23.5% | +0.0% | 0.22 | EP | favoriteSame trip | — |
| 5 | ONE HELLUVA CANDY | 3.0 | 20.6% | 23.1% | +2.6% | 0.69 | U | 2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip | — |
| 4 | PRAIRIERRIDER | 6.0 | 11.8% | 9.5% | -2.3% | -0.65 | U | Barn changeSame trip | — |
| 1 | EXPLOITED JESS | 8.0 | 9.2% | 8.6% | -0.5% | -0.01 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 3 | WE CALL HIM BOY | 10.0 | 7.5% | 5.9% | -1.6% | -0.74 | EP | Led lastBarn changeSame trip | — |