TDN R3 · 2026-09-28

PASSD1760yPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Lone speed #3 ACES MISCHIEF

Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#5COASTING BYC
C2#1GUNS AND SHIPSS
C3#3ACES MISCHIEFEP
C4#4DEEP STARC
C5#6HEART OF AN ANGELC
C6#2JACKSONS ROARC

A · Likely — expected flow

#3 ACES MISCHIEF controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.

Helps #3 ACES MISCHIEF · hurts #5 COASTING BY, #1 GUNS AND SHIPS, #4 DEEP STAR, #6 HEART OF AN ANGEL, #2 JACKSONS ROAR

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Someone presses #3 ACES MISCHIEF. Soft-lead thesis dies.

Helps #1 GUNS AND SHIPS · hurts #3 ACES MISCHIEF

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 COASTING BY, #1 GUNS AND SHIPS, #4 DEEP STAR, #6 HEART OF AN ANGEL, #2 JACKSONS ROAR).

Helps #5 COASTING BY, #1 GUNS AND SHIPS, #4 DEEP STAR, #6 HEART OF AN ANGEL, #2 JACKSONS ROAR · hurts #3 ACES MISCHIEF

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
1	GUNS AND SHIPSGONZALEZ L A	2.5	S	Rising figsTop last figTop last pace2026-09-21 TDN 4f 51.40 B MT ft 18/21; 2026-08-31 TDN 4f 48.60 B MT ft 3/8 · barn: same as last	Clm5000n3l → Clm 5000n3l	SHANYFELT VALERIE K	Favorite
4	DEEP STARTERRAZA GERMAN	2.0	C	Tag dropBarn changeSame trip2026-08-23 CNL 4f 49.00 B MT ft 27/67; 2026-07-08 CNL 4f 50.00 B MT ft 6/8 · barn: change vs MUNOZ CARLOS	Clm16000n2l → Clm 5000n3l	LOPEZ JACINTO	Favorite
5	COASTING BYKEISER CHELSEY	3.0	C	Rising figsTag dropSame trip2025-12-26 TP 5f 64.80 B MT ft 4/4; 2025-12-01 TP 5f 64.80 B MT ft 12/13 · barn: same as last	Clm7500n3l → Clm 5000n3l	CANNON JOHN STEVE	field
3	ACES MISCHIEFCORRALES GERARDO	4.0	EP	Led last2026-06-17 TDN 3f 38.20 B MT ft 5/8; 2026-06-10 TDN 4f 49.40 Bg MT ft 5/12 · barn: same as last	Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n3l	RIVERA NESTOR R	field
6	HEART OF AN ANGELBARBARAN ERIK	6.0	C	Rising figs2026-07-07 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft 4/19; 2026-05-07 TDN 5f 64.40 B MT wf 3/7 · barn: same as last	Clm5000n3l → Clm 5000n3l	HUEPENBECKER LOREN	field
2	JACKSONS ROARDIAZ ANGEL I	20.0	C	Trouble last2026-09-16 TDN 5f 62.00 B MT ft 3/4; 2026-09-01 TDN 5f 61.40 B MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last	Clm5000n3l → Clm 5000n3l	SZCZEPANSKI EMILY	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACETDN R3 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt route 1760y · Clm5000n3l
SHAPELone speed #3 controls in A; stalker #1 needs pressure in B; all closers C-only
CHALKFavorite#1 GUNS AND SHIPS (2.5) and #4 DEEP STAR (2.0) — both chalk; #1 solid (rising figs 71→77, top field fig, top LP, inside post suits rail bias); #4 short and opposable (steep drop from 16k, negative edge, weak route record for new barn)
LEANWinner call#1 GUNS AND SHIPS · best fig, inside post, rail bias, rising cycle — rightful favorite
PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse reaches 2+ ready flags with a pace path)
PRICEnone
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILL#3 steals a soft pace wire-to-wire unchallenged; #1's sprint-to-route conversion is a concern (9.5% win rate)
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes

Why

Dirt route, cheap claimer (Clm5000n3l), six-horse field with speed bias and inside rail tilt — moderate volatility given the thin overlay pool.

#3 ACES MISCHIEF projects as lone speed into a speed-biased track, but the two chalks (#1 GUNS AND SHIPS at 2.5, #4 DEEP STAR at 2.0) are both legitimate; #1 is the stronger model horse with rising figs and top-field figures, styled as a stalker who ideally wants the duel scenario to materialize in B.

No horse clears the primed + non-chalk overlay threshold — the sheet already flags no price overlays, and the one horse with rising figs and a path (#1 GUNS AND SHIPS) is chalk.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
1	GUNS AND SHIPS	2.5	22.7%	28.4%	+5.7%	1.22	S	favoriteRising figsTop last figTop last pace	—
4	DEEP STAR	2.0	26.5%	25.9%	-0.6%	0.23	C	favoriteTag dropBarn changeSame trip	—
5	COASTING BY	3.0	19.8%	19.9%	+0.0%	0.32	C	Rising figsTag dropSame trip	—
3	ACES MISCHIEF	4.0	15.9%	12.6%	-3.2%	-0.59	EP	Led last	—
6	HEART OF AN ANGEL	6.0	11.3%	10.7%	-0.6%	0.08	C	Rising figs	—
2	JACKSONS ROAR	20.0	3.8%	2.5%	-1.2%	-1.27	C	Trouble last	—