CD R1 · 2026-09-27
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find CD R1 · 2026-09-27 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Pace unknown — not enough call1/e1
Pressure unknown. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#9RACHELIUU
- C2#4FLAMING VERDICTUU
- C3#7SHES TOASTYUU
- C4#3COWGIRL TUFFUU
- C5#6TREAT ME NICEUU
- C6#1PARDI VIDAUU
- C7#5HOECAKESUU
- C8#2YOUR CHOICEUU
- C9#8ALL OVER ITP
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #8 ALL OVER IT · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #8 ALL OVER IT · hurts —
Chaos: the map fails and the race becomes a scramble. No dedicated closer on the file.
Helps — · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FLAMING VERDICTGAFFALIONE TYLER | 3.0 | U | —2026-09-20 CD 4f 49.80 B MT ft 69/100; 2026-09-13 CD 3f 37.20 B MT ft 6/17 · barn: MAKER MICHAEL J (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | MAKER MICHAEL J | Favorite |
| 7 | SHES TOASTYSAEZ LUIS | 3.5 | U | Sharp work2026-09-23 CD 3f 35.00 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-09-16 CD 5f 60.20 B MT ft 3/11 · barn: KENNEALLY EDDIE (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | KENNEALLY EDDIE | field |
| 3 | COWGIRL TUFFORTIZ JOSE L | 4.0 | U | —2026-09-19 CD 5f 62.80 B MT ft 24/27; 2026-09-10 CD 4f 49.40 B MT my 6/12 · barn: SHARP JOE (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | SHARP JOE | field |
| 6 | TREAT ME NICEASMUSSEN KEITH J | 4.0 | U | —2026-09-20 CD 4f 49.40 Bg MT ft 60/100; 2026-09-08 CD 5f 61.40 B MT ft 5/8 · barn: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | ASMUSSEN STEVEN M | field |
| 9 | RACHELIGRAHAM J | 6.0 | U | Led lastTop last paceSame trip2026-09-12 CD 4f 47.80 B MT gd 9/122; 2026-09-05 CD 4f 46.60 B MT ft bullet 1/166 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | DESORMEAUX J KEITH | field |
| 1 | PARDI VIDACONCEPCION AXEL | 8.0 | U | —2026-09-19 CD 5f 62.80 B MT ft 24/27; 2026-09-10 CD 5f 64.00 B MT ft 12/12 · barn: SHARP JOE (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | SHARP JOE | field |
| 5 | HOECAKESMACHADO DYLAN | 12.0 | U | Sharp workSame trip2026-09-17 KEE 4f 48.60 Bg MT ft bullet 1/17; 2026-08-30 KEE 4f 49.40 B MT ft 4/10 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | COLEBROOK BEN | field |
| 8 | ALL OVER ITTORRES JAIME A | 20.0 | P | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-09-20 CDT 4f 48.80 B MT ft 14/38; 2026-08-27 CNL 4f 49.60 B MT ft 10/16 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | MUNOZ CARLOS | field |
| 2 | YOUR CHOICEGOMEZ AGUSTIN | 30.0 | U | Sharp work2026-09-23 TP 3f 35.80 Bg MT ft bullet 1/12; 2026-09-16 TP 5f 63.40 B MT ft 9/11 · barn: RIVERA TIRSO (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | RIVERA TIRSO | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACECD R1 · 2026-09-27 · Dirt 1320y Maiden Special Weight
- SHAPEPace unknown — eight of nine style U; lone PP horse (#9) showed early speed and gave way; crawl or scramble equally likely; volatility extreme
- CHALKFavorite#4 FLAMING VERDICT · short (3-1 ML) · Maker/Gaffalione debut, no PPs, negative ROI across all key categories; model edge 0.001 — no reason to oppose, no reason to bet
- LEANWinner call#4 FLAMING VERDICT · best-connect barn/rider combo, model top, chalk by both definitions
- PRIMEDnone (no horse clears 2+ PP-based ready flags)
- PRICEno price — zero non-chalk overlays; #8 ALL OVER IT has positive signal and rising figs but model edge 0.006 does not clear an overlay threshold and the sheet rec is PASS
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLlive tote, weather, any scratch that changes the pace picture, #8 proving early on a dirt sprint
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes
Why
Maiden special weight dirt sprint at Churchill Downs, nine first-time starters or near-debut horses in a field that is almost entirely opaque on pace, making this an extreme-volatility race with no reliable shape. The pace map is a blank — eight of nine runners are style U, #8 ALL OVER IT is the lone horse with two printed PPs and rising figs (67 over 64), but it exits a turf sprint and carries a shipper/surface-switch penalty, while chalk #4 FLAMING VERDICT holds the model's narrowest edge but has zero PPs and a trainer (Maker) with negative ROI across every relevant split. No horse clears two ready flags off PP evidence; #8 has rising figs and top fig in the field but the sharp-work badges on #7 and #2 are display-only and do not prime.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FLAMING VERDICT | 3.0 | 19.5% | 19.6% | +0.1% | 0.00 | U | favorite | 2 |
| 7 | SHES TOASTY | 3.5 | 17.3% | 17.4% | +0.1% | 0.00 | U | Sharp work | WIN |
| 3 | COWGIRL TUFF | 4.0 | 15.6% | 15.7% | +0.1% | 0.00 | U | 7 | |
| 6 | TREAT ME NICE | 4.0 | 15.6% | 15.7% | +0.1% | 0.00 | U | 6 | |
| 9 | RACHELI | 6.0 | 11.1% | 10.3% | -0.9% | -0.35 | U | Led lastTop last paceSame trip | 5 |
| 1 | PARDI VIDA | 8.0 | 8.7% | 8.7% | +0.1% | 0.00 | U | 4 | |
| 5 | HOECAKES | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.7% | -0.3% | -0.21 | U | Sharp workSame trip | 8 |
| 8 | ALL OVER IT | 20.0 | 3.7% | 4.3% | +0.6% | 0.56 | P | Rising figsTop last figSame trip | 9 |
| 2 | YOUR CHOICE | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0% | 0.00 | U | Sharp work | 3 |