LRL R1 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#3 #4 #8 #9 #2)
Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3BONSAI WARRIORE
- C2#4KORRONGOEP
- C3#8SINETICEP
- C4#9WHENEVERUREMEMBEREP
- C5#11ARCHIMEDESP
- C6#2TRANSACTIONALEP
- C7#6COPERNIUMP
- C8#1STONE COLD JONESP
- C9#12TWIRLING EXPRESSC
- C10#7BORLETTIC
- C11#5LET FLYC
- C12#10BENNY HAVENSC
Honest pace among #3 BONSAI WARRIOR and #4 KORRONGO and #8 SINETIC and #9 WHENEVERUREMEMBER and #2 TRANSACTIONAL. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #11 ARCHIMEDES, #6 COPERNIUM, #1 STONE COLD JONES · hurts #3 BONSAI WARRIOR, #4 KORRONGO, #8 SINETIC, #9 WHENEVERUREMEMBER, #2 TRANSACTIONAL
Pressure: #3 BONSAI WARRIOR and #4 KORRONGO and #8 SINETIC and #9 WHENEVERUREMEMBER and #2 TRANSACTIONAL hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #11 ARCHIMEDES, #6 COPERNIUM, #1 STONE COLD JONES · hurts #3 BONSAI WARRIOR, #4 KORRONGO, #8 SINETIC, #9 WHENEVERUREMEMBER, #2 TRANSACTIONAL
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#12 TWIRLING EXPRESS, #7 BORLETTI, #5 LET FLY, #10 BENNY HAVENS).
Helps #12 TWIRLING EXPRESS, #7 BORLETTI, #5 LET FLY, #10 BENNY HAVENS · hurts #3 BONSAI WARRIOR, #4 KORRONGO, #8 SINETIC, #9 WHENEVERUREMEMBER, #2 TRANSACTIONAL
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | WHENEVERUREMEMBERKARAMANOS H A | 2.5 | EP | Rising figs2026-09-20 LRL 4f 48.80 H MT ft 13/84; 2026-09-14 LRL 4f 50.80 B MT ft 11/12 · barn: same as last | OC30000 → Clm 16000b | TROMBETTA MICHAEL J | Favorite |
| 4 | KORRONGOCRUZ ANGEL | 4.0 | EP | Barn changeSame trip2026-09-16 MTH 4f 48.40 B MT ft 3/15; 2026-08-15 MTH 4f 50.60 B MT ft 29/30 · barn: change vs REYNOLDS PATRICK J | Clm16000b → Clm 16000b | BERNARDINI JUAN G | overlay |
| 3 | BONSAI WARRIORBARBOSA JEIRON | 4.5 | E | Rising figsLed lastBarn changeSame trip2026-08-25 MTH 4f 47.60 H MT ft 2/32; 2026-05-09 MTH 5f 61.00 H MT ft bullet 1/10 · barn: change vs SYNNEFIAS PANAGIOTIS A | Clm16000b → Clm 16000b | FARRIOR ANTHONY | field |
| 11 | ARCHIMEDESTOLEDO JEVIAN | 5.0 | P | Barn changeTop last paceSame trip2026-09-11 MTH 3f 39.20 B MT ft 4/5; 2026-07-18 BEL 4f 49.00 B TT ft 22/121 · barn: change vs SYNNEFIAS PANAGIOTIS A | Clm16000n2l → Clm 16000b | FARRIOR ANTHONY | field |
| 6 | COPERNIUMRUIZ JORGE | 8.0 | P | Trouble lastBarn changeSame trip2026-08-26 MTH 3f 38.00 B MT ft 7/9; 2026-05-09 MTH 4f 49.00 B MT ft bullet 1/54 · barn: change vs MARGOTTA ANTHONY JR | Clm7500bc → Clm 16000b | MAGEE KIERON | field |
| 1 | STONE COLD JONESLOPEZ CARLOS EDUARDO | 8.0 | P | Same trip2026-07-04 CT 3f 35.20 B MT ft bullet 1/14; 2026-06-13 CT 4f 50.00 B MT ft 12/19 · barn: same as last | Clm16000n2l → Clm 16000b | GERALIS EMANUEL J | field |
| 5 | LET FLYVARGAS JOSE E | 20.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-06-17 LRL 4f 48.80 H MT ft 2/8; 2026-04-22 LRL 5f 64.00 B MT ft 6/7 · barn: same as last | Clm16000b → Clm 16000b | ALLEN A FERRIS III | field |
| 8 | SINETICBRICENO LEANDRO M | 30.0 | EP | Same trip2026-08-29 LRL 3f 36.40 B MT ft bullet 1/9; 2026-08-20 LRL 4f 50.40 B MT ft 12/25 · barn: same as last | Clm16000b → Clm 16000b | MACHADO ANTONIO | field |
| 10 | BENNY HAVENSRODRIGUEZ JAMIE | 30.0 | C | Class dropSame trip2026-09-20 LRL 5f 63.00 B MT ft 12/18; 2026-07-19 LRL 4f 51.60 B MT ft 73/75 · barn: same as last | Alw58430n1x → Clm 16000b | AGUIRRE ANTHONY JR | field |
| 7 | BORLETTISCAMPTON BRITTANY | 30.0 | C | 3rd start cycleLed lastSame trip2026-07-09 LRL 5f 63.00 Bg MT ft 6/7; 2026-06-25 LRL 4f 51.40 B MT ft 11/11 · barn: same as last | Clm16000b → Clm 16000b | CLAGETT CHRISTINE F | field |
| 12 | TWIRLING EXPRESSOCASIO LUIS M | 30.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-15 PRX 4f 48.80 B MT ft 10/20; 2026-05-26 PRX 4f 52.20 B MT gd 34/34 · barn: same as last | Clm16000b → Clm 16000b | SOTO- MARTINEZ ELLIOTT | field |
| 2 | TRANSACTIONALBRICENO JEAN GREGOR | 30.0 | EP | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-30 LRL 4f 52.40 B D T fm 3/12; 2026-07-28 LRL 4f 51.20 B MT ft 6/6 · barn: same as last | OC35000 → Clm 16000b | SMITH LAWRENCE M | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACELRL R1 · 2026-09-27 · Turf 1210y Clm 16000b
- SHAPEWall of early pressers (#3 #4 #8 #9 #2) — extreme pace pressure; stalkers #11 #6 #1 best placed to inherit; closers only live in scenario C
- CHALKFavorite#9 WHENEVERUREMEMBER · short · class dropper from OC30000 shows rising figs (77 vs 59) but projects into a five-way duel at 5-2, price too short for the pace risk
- LEANWinner call#9 WHENEVERUREMEMBER · best figure, clearest class, but gets hooked in the pressure
- PRIMEDnone (no horse reaches 2+ qualifying flags per ingested sheet)
- PRICE#4 KORRONGO · ML 4 · only model overlay (edge 0.025, signal 1.08) — top zPace, dueled and held at this exact class/distance/surface, new barn is a display note not a signal, but trainer stats for first start with new barn are bleak (0% W, -2.00 ROI)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #4 KORRONGO is the lone overlay but barn stats (0-for-12 first start, −2.00 ROI) and a turf win rate of 2.94% across 34 starts undermine the price case; no stacked angle beyond model edge alone
- KILLOff-turf switch voids every read; a scratch among the speed horses changes the entire shape; live tote may push KORRONGO below 4-1 making the price moot
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/going condition, rider changes
Why
Turf sprint at 1210y in a $16,000 claiming field of 12 with a wall of early speed makes this a moderate-to-high volatility race where pace shape is the dominant factor. The five-way early battle (#3, #4, #8, #9, #2) is extreme — the chalk #9 WHENEVERUREMEMBER is the class dropper from OC30000 and the model's top horse but figures to be hooked into a contested pace at a price too short to play, while the only model overlay is #4 KORRONGO (EP, ML 4), who dueled and was caught last at this exact class/distance/surface but posted the field's top signal (1.08) and highest zPace (1.17). No horse clears the two-flag primed threshold per the ingested sheet.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | WHENEVERUREMEMBER | 2.5 | 22.6% | 24.5% | +2.0% | 0.82 | EP | favoriteRising figs | — |
| 4 | KORRONGO | 4.0 | 15.8% | 18.3% | +2.5% | 1.08 | EP | Barn changeSame trip | — |
| 3 | BONSAI WARRIOR | 4.5 | 14.4% | 16.0% | +1.6% | 0.91 | E | Rising figsLed lastBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 11 | ARCHIMEDES | 5.0 | 13.2% | 12.8% | -0.3% | 0.38 | P | Barn changeTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 6 | COPERNIUM | 8.0 | 8.8% | 8.1% | -0.7% | 0.14 | P | Trouble lastBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 1 | STONE COLD JONES | 8.0 | 8.8% | 7.1% | -1.7% | -0.36 | P | Same trip | — |
| 5 | LET FLY | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.4% | -0.4% | 0.03 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 8 | SINETIC | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.3% | -0.3% | 0.03 | EP | Same trip | — |
| 10 | BENNY HAVENS | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.0% | -0.5% | -0.39 | C | Class dropSame trip | — |
| 7 | BORLETTI | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.0% | -0.5% | -0.45 | C | 3rd start cycleLed lastSame trip | — |
| 12 | TWIRLING EXPRESS | 30.0 | 2.5% | 1.9% | -0.6% | -0.67 | C | Same trip | — |
| 2 | TRANSACTIONAL | 30.0 | 2.5% | 1.5% | -1.0% | -1.53 | EP | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |