MNR R2 · 2026-09-30
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find MNR R2 · 2026-09-30 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#7 vs #6)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#7BLOWN AWAYEP
- C2#6ROBERT LEEEP
- C3#3EL KOZANS
- C4#8DEMBE ZUMAS
- C5#9DOOM LOOPP
- C6#10LORD BARANOFC
- C7#1TAIL RISKC
- C8#5KENTUCKY GO GOC
- C9#4WILDING LANEC
- C10#2MICKELEENEC
Honest pace among #7 BLOWN AWAY and #6 ROBERT LEE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #9 DOOM LOOP, #3 EL KOZAN, #8 DEMBE ZUMA · hurts #7 BLOWN AWAY, #6 ROBERT LEE
Pressure: #7 BLOWN AWAY and #6 ROBERT LEE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #9 DOOM LOOP, #3 EL KOZAN, #8 DEMBE ZUMA · hurts #7 BLOWN AWAY, #6 ROBERT LEE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 EL KOZAN, #8 DEMBE ZUMA, #10 LORD BARANOF, #1 TAIL RISK, #5 KENTUCKY GO GO, #4 WILDING LANE, #2 MICKELEENE).
Helps #3 EL KOZAN, #8 DEMBE ZUMA, #10 LORD BARANOF, #1 TAIL RISK, #5 KENTUCKY GO GO, #4 WILDING LANE, #2 MICKELEENE · hurts #7 BLOWN AWAY, #6 ROBERT LEE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TAIL RISKRIVERA L R | 2.0 | C | Trouble lastTag dropBarn change2026-07-11 MTH 4f 52.60 B MT ft 53/54; 2026-06-05 SAR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 5/18 · barn: change vs SYNNEFIAS PANAGIOTIS A | Clm16000n2l → Clm 10000n2x | FARRIOR ANTHONY | Favorite |
| 7 | BLOWN AWAYDIAZ ANGEL I | 4.0 | EP | Class dropLed last2026-06-28 MNR 4f 48.60 B D MT hy bullet 1/9; 2026-05-26 MNR 3f 36.80 B MT ft 2/9 · barn: same as last | sAlw19950n3l → Clm 10000n2x | BAIRD J MICHAEL | field |
| 8 | DEMBE ZUMAGREENIDGE ELIJAH | 5.0 | S | Same trip2026-04-22 MNR 3f 36.00 B MT ft bullet 1/28; 2026-04-15 MNR 3f 36.80 B MT ft 4/21 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n2x → Clm 10000n2x | POOLE JAMI C | field |
| 6 | ROBERT LEEGARCIA F | 7.0 | EP | Top last paceSame trip2026-06-28 MNR 4f 50.80 B D MT hy 4/9; 2026-04-11 TAM 4f 53.00 B MT ft 53/54 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n2x → Clm 10000n2x | LOPEZ CARLOS A | field |
| 10 | LORD BARANOFWEATHERLY BAILEY | 8.0 | C | —2026-03-21 MNR 3f 38.40 B MT ft 6/10; 2026-02-22 MVR 4f 49.80 B MT gd 4/7 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n2x → Clm 10000n2x | BLANKENSHIP DONALD T | field |
| 5 | KENTUCKY GO GOBATISTA LUIS ALBERTO | 10.0 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip2026-09-16 MNR 4f 50.20 B MT ft 5/13; 2026-08-24 MNR 4f 50.60 B MT ft 7/7 · barn: same as last | Clm15000n2x → Clm 10000n2x | KNUDSEN KENT | primed |
| 3 | EL KOZANNEGRON LUIS | 15.0 | S | Same trip2026-06-17 MNR 4f 52.60 B MT ft 27/29; 2026-06-03 MNR 3f 38.60 Bg MT ft 9/17 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n2x → Clm 10000n2x | CORDERO-LOPEZ ALEXIS | field |
| 9 | DOOM LOOPPARKER D L | 12.0 | P | Same trip2026-04-22 MNR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 6/25; 2026-04-06 MNR 4f 53.40 B D MT hy 29/34 · barn: same as last | sClm7500n2l → Clm 10000n2x | CLOUSTON EDWARD | field |
| 4 | WILDING LANEOLIVEROS CHARLE | 15.0 | C | Rising figs2026-04-10 MNR 3f 37.80 B MT ft 10/18; 2025-08-05 MNR 4f 49.20 B MT ft 4/17 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n2x → Clm 10000n2x | LOPEZ CARLOS A | field |
| 2 | MICKELEENELEON JOSE A | 20.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-20 MNR 3f 40.40 B MT ft 6/6; 2026-08-28 MNR 3f 37.40 B MT ft 2/6 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Clm 10000n2x | DESTEFANO BRUCE | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R2 · 2026-09-30 · Turf 1540y · Clm10000n2x · field 10
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#7 vs #6) sets honest-to-fast pace; inside rail bias; closers and stalkers from posts 1–5 get the trip
- CHALKFavorite#1 TAIL RISK · short · fig trend declining (78→72→67), negative turf ROI for new barn, opposable on form despite pace path benefit
- LEANWinner call#5 KENTUCKY GO GO · primed closer fits A/B duel scenario, dropping in class, third-start cycle, best recent turf sprint fig
- PRIMED#5 KENTUCKY GO GO (rising_figs, third_start_cycle, tag_drop, same_trip); #2 MICKELEENE (rising_figs, second_off_layoff) — #2 excluded from PLAY: top fig 54, negative model edge, signal -1.16, no overlay
- PRICENo non-chalk overlays per ingested sheet (all edge values below threshold)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — no price overlay clears the bar; #5 is the LEAN but model edge is 0.009 with no overlay flag; need 10-1 or better on tote to revisit
- KILL#1 TAIL RISK gets a clean trip from rail, figs were suppressed by the bump last out and bounces back; or track bias favors lone-speed that survives the duel
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, going variant (firm vs soft affects closer kick), weather/off-turf risk
Why
Turf sprint claiming at MNR, moderate-to-high volatility with a ten-horse field, inside-rail and speed bias, and first-time turf runners muddying the closer-heavy field. Two EP types (#7 BLOWN AWAY, #6 ROBERT LEE) project a pace duel that should torch the front end and set up stalkers/closers from inside posts; chalk #1 TAIL RISK is a closer from post 1 with a class drop and barn change but declining figs (78→72→67) and a negative turf ROI for the new trainer that keeps it short at 2-1 without inspiring confidence. #5 KENTUCKY GO GO (ML 10) is the primed price horse — rising figs (39→67, +28 points), third start of the cycle, class drop from 15k to 10k, same trip (turf sprint), and a closing style that fits an A/B scenario where the #7/#6 duel empties; trainer's turf ROI is brutal (-1.57) but the cycle signals override that concern at the right number. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TAIL RISK | 2.0 | 26.1% | 25.8% | -0.3% | 0.11 | C | favoriteTrouble lastTag dropBarn change | — |
| 7 | BLOWN AWAY | 4.0 | 15.7% | 16.6% | +0.9% | 0.38 | EP | Class dropLed last | — |
| 8 | DEMBE ZUMA | 5.0 | 13.1% | 13.6% | +0.6% | 0.33 | S | Same trip | — |
| 6 | ROBERT LEE | 7.0 | 9.8% | 10.6% | +0.9% | 0.49 | EP | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 10 | LORD BARANOF | 8.0 | 8.7% | 8.4% | -0.3% | 0.02 | C | — | |
| 5 | KENTUCKY GO GO | 10.0 | 7.1% | 8.0% | +0.9% | 0.64 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip | — |
| 3 | EL KOZAN | 15.0 | 4.9% | 5.1% | +0.2% | 0.30 | S | Same trip | — |
| 9 | DOOM LOOP | 12.0 | 6.0% | 4.9% | -1.1% | -0.67 | P | Same trip | — |
| 4 | WILDING LANE | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.2% | -0.7% | -0.44 | C | Rising figs | — |
| 2 | MICKELEENE | 20.0 | 3.7% | 2.7% | -1.0% | -1.16 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |