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KEE R1 · 2026-10-07

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#3 vs #5)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#3FOUNTAIN RUNE
  2. C2#1MILITARY ROADP
  3. C3#8UNLOADC
  4. C4#5FAST SOLUTIONE
  5. C5#7UP TO NO GOODS
  6. C6#4CALYCANTHUSS
  7. C7#6ENLIGHTENC
  8. C8#2GLOBAL SENSATIONC
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #3 FOUNTAIN RUN and #5 FAST SOLUTION. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #1 MILITARY ROAD, #7 UP TO NO GOOD, #4 CALYCANTHUS · hurts #3 FOUNTAIN RUN, #5 FAST SOLUTION

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #3 FOUNTAIN RUN and #5 FAST SOLUTION hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #1 MILITARY ROAD, #7 UP TO NO GOOD, #4 CALYCANTHUS · hurts #3 FOUNTAIN RUN, #5 FAST SOLUTION

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#8 UNLOAD, #7 UP TO NO GOOD, #4 CALYCANTHUS, #6 ENLIGHTEN, #2 GLOBAL SENSATION).

Helps #8 UNLOAD, #7 UP TO NO GOOD, #4 CALYCANTHUS, #6 ENLIGHTEN, #2 GLOBAL SENSATION · hurts #3 FOUNTAIN RUN, #5 FAST SOLUTION

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
3FOUNTAIN RUNSHEEHY DANNY1.6ERising figsLed lastSame trip2026-09-27 TTC 4f 49.60 B MT ft 10/26; 2026-08-30 TTC 4f 50.00 B MT ft 5/14 · barn: same as lastAlw12500s → Alw 12500sMEAH ANNA MFavorite
1MILITARY ROADBEJARANO R3.5PRising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-08-21 CD 4f 50.00 B MT gd 53/73; 2026-08-07 CD 4f 52.00 B MT ft 92/93 · barn: same as lastAlw12500s → Alw 12500sHARTMAN CHRISprimed
2GLOBAL SENSATIONTORRES JAIME A4.5CRising figsSame trip2026-09-30 CDT 4f 48.40 B MT ft 2/15; 2026-09-05 CDT 3f 35.40 B MT ft bullet 1/6 · barn: same as lastClm20000 → Alw 12500sSANTAMARIA CARLOSfield
8UNLOADASMUSSEN KEITH J6.0CTop last pace2026-09-05 SAR 4f 50.80 B TT ft 20/23; 2026-08-19 TP 5f 62.80 B MT ft 5/14 · barn: same as lastAlw12500s → Alw 12500sASMUSSEN STEVEN Mfield
6ENLIGHTENWHITACRE GRANT8.0C—2026-08-19 CNL 3f 38.80 B MT ft 5/6; 2026-05-31 KEE 3f 37.40 B MT ft 13/59 · barn: same as lastHandicap → Alw 12500sAUSTIN KEITH Afield
5FAST SOLUTIONANTONGEORGI WILLIAM JR10.0ERising figsLed lastBarn changeSame trip2026-07-20 TTC 4f 49.60 B MT ft 7/13; 2026-05-29 TTC 4f 48.40 B MT ft bullet 1/28 · barn: change vs HOLSAPPLE HUTCHClm12500c → Alw 12500sHANCOCK DANAfield
4CALYCANTHUSARRIETA FRANCISCO12.0SSame trip2026-09-22 CDT 4f 48.60 B MT ft 3/13; 2026-08-22 CDT 3f 38.80 B MT ft 5/5 · barn: same as lastOC15000 → Alw 12500sCUNNINGHAM S JADEfield
7UP TO NO GOODHAZLEWOOD YEDSIT15.0SRising figsSame trip2026-09-29 TP 4f 49.80 B MT ft 37/54; 2026-09-02 TP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 24/35 · barn: same as lastClm12500 → Alw 12500sKINMON KEITHfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade
  1. RACEKEE R1 · 2026-10-07 · Dirt 1760y Alw12500s
  2. SHAPETwo-speed duel (#3 vs #5); pressers and stalkers benefit in A and B
  3. CHALKFavorite#3 FOUNTAIN RUN · short (ML 1.6) · best fig, won last, but pace duel risk
  4. LEANWinner call#3 FOUNTAIN RUN · most likely winner if duel does not empty him
  5. PRIMED#1 MILITARY ROAD (rising_figs, second_off_layoff, same_trip, lost by a neck to this chalk last out)
  6. PRICE#1 MILITARY ROAD · edge 0.030 · ML 3.5
  7. PLAYPrice ticket#1 MILITARY ROAD · win · min 3-1 (pass if shorter)
  8. KILLDuel fails to materialize; chalk clears lone and wires; #1's post-1 rail trip gets pinched early
  9. MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition, rider changes

Why

Dirt route at Keenwood, ALW 12500s, field of 8 — moderate volatility with two genuine speed horses setting up a pace duel that could detonate the front.

Two-speed map (#3 vs #5) strongly favors pressers and stalkers; chalk #3 FOUNTAIN RUN is the best horse and owns the fig (fig 100, led and repelled a foe last out), but faces a legitimate duel that punished it in prior cycle exits when pressed.

#1 MILITARY ROAD is the primed price: 2nd off layoff (62d gap into the return), rising figs (90→100), grinded to within a neck of this same favorite last out at CD — he has the pace path as a presser sitting second in both A and B scenarios.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#1 MILITARY ROAD+3.0%ML 3.5Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip
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Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
3FOUNTAIN RUN1.630.2%35.6%+5.4%1.11EfavoriteRising figsLed lastSame trip—
1MILITARY ROAD3.517.5%20.4%+3.0%1.08PRising figs2nd off layoffSame trip—
2GLOBAL SENSATION4.514.3%12.6%-1.7%-0.05CRising figsSame trip—
8UNLOAD6.011.2%10.8%-0.5%0.29CTop last pace—
6ENLIGHTEN8.08.7%7.0%-1.7%-0.41C—
5FAST SOLUTION10.07.1%5.3%-1.8%-0.72ERising figsLed lastBarn changeSame trip—
4CALYCANTHUS12.06.0%4.4%-1.6%-0.77SSame trip—
7UP TO NO GOOD15.04.9%3.9%-1.1%-0.52SRising figsSame trip—