PID R1 · 2026-09-30

PASSD1320y1 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

Bet now

Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find PID R1 · 2026-09-30 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Lone speed #5 MAYHEM

Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#5MAYHEME
C2#4BACK THE CRICKP
C3#2HONORANDAPRAYERP
C4#1VOODOOS
C5#3SMART PHILLYS

A · Likely — expected flow

#5 MAYHEM controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.

Helps #5 MAYHEM · hurts #1 VOODOO, #3 SMART PHILLY

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Someone presses #5 MAYHEM. Soft-lead thesis dies.

Helps #4 BACK THE CRICK, #2 HONORANDAPRAYER, #1 VOODOO, #3 SMART PHILLY · hurts #5 MAYHEM

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 VOODOO, #3 SMART PHILLY).

Helps #1 VOODOO, #3 SMART PHILLY · hurts #5 MAYHEM

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
4	BACK THE CRICKMARTINEZ GADDIEL A	2.0	P	Led lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-09-01 PID 5f 58.80 Bg MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-08-18 PID 5f 61.60 Bg MT ft 4/4 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	ROGERS J MICHAEL	Favorite
3	SMART PHILLYROJAS MARTINA	4.0	S	Trouble lastSame trip2026-09-22 PID 4f 50.20 B MT ft 7/8; 2026-09-15 PID 4f 49.00 B MT ft 6/8 · barn: same as last	fsMsBhavior75k → Md Sp Wt	ROJAS MURRAY L	field
2	HONORANDAPRAYERMONTANEZ ROSARIO	3.5	P	Rising figsSame trip2026-08-31 PID 4f 50.00 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-07-27 PID 4f 50.20 B MT ft 9/12 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	BOYER DAVID JR	field
1	VOODOODIAZ HECTOR RAFAEL JR	3.0	S	Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-25 PID 3f 37.80 B MT ft 5/5; 2026-07-22 PID 4f 49.20 B MT ft 9/18 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	HAMM TIMOTHY	primed
5	MAYHEMKINGSLEY TAYLOR	8.0	E	Led lastSharp workSame trip2026-09-23 PID 3f 35.60 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-08-24 PID 3f 37.40 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last	fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	HAMM TIMOTHY	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACEPID R1 · 2026-09-30 · Dirt 1320y Md Sp Wt · field 5
SHAPELone speed (#5 MAYHEM) with inside/speed bias; stalkers buried unless MAYHEM burns; chalk presses cleanly from post 4
CHALKFavorite#4 BACK THE CRICK ML 2 · solid — top fig, top E1, same track/trip, bullet work, bias-favored post; hard to beat, impossible to price
LEANWinner call#4 BACK THE CRICK · most likely winner; lone speed is unreliable, bias and class point here
PRIMED#1 VOODOO (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle) — signals are real but path requires chaos scenario only
PRICEnone (no non-chalk overlays on the brief; #1 VOODOO is negative edge; sheet rec is PASS)
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILLMAYHEM clears uncontested and the rail bias carries it wire-to-wire; #4 bouncing off its best-of-cycle last fig
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint maiden special weight at PID, five-horse field, moderate volatility given lone-speed dynamic and shaky chalk form cycle.

#5 MAYHEM owns lone speed but posted two straight "gave way" lines against pressure, and the bias (inside rail, early speed) benefits the chair more than a burned-up E from post 5; #4 BACK THE CRICK (chalk, ML 2) posted the field's top fig and top E1 last out, pressed comfortably from post 4 on the same track and trip, and on a speed/inside bias is the most likely winner.

#1 VOODOO is the primed horse (rising figs 50→58→66, third start of the cycle) but its pace style is S, post 1 is a stalker's graveyard on a speed-favoring rail, and the model has it as a negative edge — it needs scenario C (MAYHEM melts) to get a lane, which is price-only territory, not a win play.

```
```

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#1 VOODOOML 3.0Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
4	BACK THE CRICK	2.0	29.9%	34.5%	+4.6%	0.71	P	favoriteLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip	—
3	SMART PHILLY	4.0	17.9%	19.6%	+1.7%	0.49	S	Trouble lastSame trip	—
2	HONORANDAPRAYER	3.5	19.9%	18.9%	-1.0%	-0.06	P	Rising figsSame trip	—
1	VOODOO	3.0	22.4%	18.7%	-3.7%	-0.59	S	Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip	—
5	MAYHEM	8.0	10.0%	8.4%	-1.6%	-0.56	E	Led lastSharp workSame trip	—