TDN R2 · 2026-09-28

PASSD1100y1 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Lone speed #3 NINA FROM PASADENA

Pressure low. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#3NINA FROM PASADENAEP
C2#8MISS EXOTICAP
C3#7OAKLYNP
C4#5THE WAY IT ISUU
C5#2DATE WITH DESTINYUU
C6#1MY PINK EVENTUU
C7#4RAGS TO RUBYUU
C8#6OHIO GIRLC

A · Likely — expected flow

#3 NINA FROM PASADENA controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.

Helps #3 NINA FROM PASADENA · hurts #6 OHIO GIRL

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Someone presses #3 NINA FROM PASADENA. Soft-lead thesis dies.

Helps #8 MISS EXOTICA, #7 OAKLYN · hurts #3 NINA FROM PASADENA

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 OHIO GIRL).

Helps #6 OHIO GIRL · hurts #3 NINA FROM PASADENA

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
7	OAKLYNKEISER CHELSEY	2.5	P	Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-08-15 TDN 4f 49.40 B MT ft 9/19; 2026-07-15 TDN 4f 49.60 B MT ft 5/17 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	WOLOCHUK DAVID	Favorite
1	MY PINK EVENTFERNANDEZ VICTOR R	1.6	U	Same trip2026-09-22 BTP 4f 50.40 B MT ft 11/12; 2026-08-29 BTP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 18/34 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	CLINE ROBERT C	Favorite
5	THE WAY IT ISBARBARAN ERIK	4.5	U	—2026-09-21 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT ft 13/21; 2026-09-09 TDN 4f 50.20 B MT ft 18/24 · barn: GORHAM ROBERT M (no last-line barn)	— → Md Sp Wt	GORHAM ROBERT M	field
2	DATE WITH DESTINYRIVERA L R	6.0	U	—2026-09-19 TDN 4f 49.40 B MT ft 4/17; 2026-09-09 TDN 4f 49.80 Bg MT ft 16/24 · barn: RADOSEVICH JUSTIN (no last-line barn)	— → Md Sp Wt	RADOSEVICH JUSTIN	field
3	NINA FROM PASADENABRACHO JOSE A	8.0	EP	Rising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-09-02 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT ft 10/19; 2026-08-10 TDN 3f 36.40 B MT gd bullet 1/9 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	RADOSEVICH JUSTIN	field
6	OHIO GIRLSALAZAR BECERRA FERNANDO	15.0	C	Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-08-19 BTP 5f 62.80 B MT ft 2/3; 2026-08-14 BTP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	ZIELINSKI RICHARD	primed
8	MISS EXOTICASTOKES J	20.0	P	Sharp workSame trip2026-09-23 BTP 3f 37.60 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-09-16 BTP 3f 37.00 B MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	CARRINGTON DALE	field
4	RAGS TO RUBYINNIS JEROME J	20.0	U	Same trip2026-09-21 TDN 5f 62.40 B MT ft 4/5; 2026-09-02 TDN 4f 52.60 Bg MT ft 17/19 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt	DACOSTA JASON	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACETDN R2 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1100y · Md Sp Wt · field 8
SHAPELone speed (#3 NINA FROM PASADENA) on a speed/inside-rail bias; low pressure projected; Scenario A heavily favored
CHALKFavorite#1 MY PINK EVENT (1.6) — solid-but-short; model is negative, raw figs are thin (one race, fig 44), but public money likely; #7 OAKLYN (2.5) — usable but short; best fig in the field (81), rising cycle, but priced below any overlay
LEANWinner call#7 OAKLYN — top fig, rising cycle, same trip, presser style fits Scenario B if anyone presses the lone speed
PRIMED#6 OHIO GIRL (rising figs, 2nd off layoff) — path is C-only against a speed bias; flags noted, not actionable as a win bet
PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlay clears the bar; sheet rec PASS confirmed
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILL#3 NINA FROM PASADENA clears uncontested and the bias holds; #6 OHIO GIRL can only fire in Scenario C
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/surface condition at post, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint maiden special weight at TDN, eight runners including three first-timers, moderate volatility given the debut unknowns and a dual-chalk top.

#3 NINA FROM PASADENA projects as lone speed off the highest E1 in the field (92), with the track running 61% early-speed winners and an inside-rail bias that helps post 3; the two chalks (#7 OAKLYN at 2.5 and #1 MY PINK EVENT at 1.6) have model edge but both are priced below any overlay threshold, and the sheet rec is PASS on non-chalk overlays.

#6 OHIO GIRL is the only flagged primed horse (rising figs +30, 2nd off layoff), but her style is C, zPace is –1.72, she needs Scenario C to fire, and the bias runs hard against late runners — two flags plus no credible A/B path does not clear the PLAY bar.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#6 OHIO GIRLML 15.0Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
7	OAKLYN	2.5	22.6%	28.9%	+6.3%	1.24	P	favoriteRising figsTop last figSame trip	—
1	MY PINK EVENT	1.6	30.4%	26.8%	-3.6%	-0.25	U	favoriteSame trip	—
5	THE WAY IT IS	4.5	14.4%	13.5%	-0.9%	-0.00	U		—
2	DATE WITH DESTINY	6.0	11.3%	10.6%	-0.7%	-0.00	U		—
3	NINA FROM PASADENA	8.0	8.8%	9.9%	+1.1%	0.71	EP	Rising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip	—
6	OHIO GIRL	15.0	4.9%	4.5%	-0.4%	-0.11	C	Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip	—
8	MISS EXOTICA	20.0	3.8%	2.9%	-0.8%	-0.73	P	Sharp workSame trip	—
4	RAGS TO RUBY	20.0	3.8%	2.8%	-0.9%	-0.87	U	Same trip	—