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DEL R9 · 2026-10-09

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#4 #7 #1 #9 #3)

Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#4FLOY JOYEP
  2. C2#7GO ALICE GOEP
  3. C3#1COUNTRY ECONOMICSE
  4. C4#9MOLLY THE CATEP
  5. C5#3LITTLE GUSSIEEP
  6. C6#12PHOEBEINWONDERLANDP
  7. C7#5CHARMING JENNIEP
  8. C8#8CITIFIEDP
  9. C9#2FLEEP
  10. C10#13BY MY DREAMSS
  11. C11#11RUN CHACHY RUNC
  12. C12#6BIG BOLTC
  13. C13#10KAZILLIONC
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #4 FLOY JOY and #7 GO ALICE GO and #1 COUNTRY ECONOMICS and #9 MOLLY THE CAT and #3 LITTLE GUSSIE. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #12 PHOEBEINWONDERLAND, #5 CHARMING JENNIE, #8 CITIFIED, #2 FLEE, #13 BY MY DREAMS · hurts #4 FLOY JOY, #7 GO ALICE GO, #1 COUNTRY ECONOMICS, #9 MOLLY THE CAT, #3 LITTLE GUSSIE

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #4 FLOY JOY and #7 GO ALICE GO and #1 COUNTRY ECONOMICS and #9 MOLLY THE CAT and #3 LITTLE GUSSIE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #12 PHOEBEINWONDERLAND, #5 CHARMING JENNIE, #8 CITIFIED, #2 FLEE, #13 BY MY DREAMS · hurts #4 FLOY JOY, #7 GO ALICE GO, #1 COUNTRY ECONOMICS, #9 MOLLY THE CAT, #3 LITTLE GUSSIE

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#13 BY MY DREAMS, #11 RUN CHACHY RUN, #6 BIG BOLT, #10 KAZILLION).

Helps #13 BY MY DREAMS, #11 RUN CHACHY RUN, #6 BIG BOLT, #10 KAZILLION · hurts #4 FLOY JOY, #7 GO ALICE GO, #1 COUNTRY ECONOMICS, #9 MOLLY THE CAT, #3 LITTLE GUSSIE

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
9MOLLY THE CATRAMOS JATNIEL4.5EPRising figsTop last figSame trip2026-09-12 DEL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 31/54; 2026-09-05 DEL 4f 50.00 B MT ft 25/70 · barn: same as lastfMd16000 → Clm 8000n2lROBERTSON MCLEANoverlay
4FLOY JOYLOPEZ PASCACIO3.5EPClass dropBarn changeTop last paceSame trip2026-09-25 FAI 4f 49.60 B MT ft 5/18; 2026-09-12 FAI 4f 49.60 B MT ft 4/17 · barn: change vs DONK DAVIDfsAlw105000n1x → Clm 8000n2lLYNCH CATHALFavorite
12PHOEBEINWONDERLANDRIOS JESUS M6.0PTag drop2026-09-30 DEL 4f 48.80 B MT ft 10/34; 2026-09-24 DEL 4f 49.80 B MT gd 5/13 · barn: same as lastfClm16000n2l → Clm 8000n2lGALLEGOS JOSE Afield
5CHARMING JENNIEROSARIO EMANUEL6.0PRising figsSame trip2026-07-26 MTH 3f 36.60 B MT ft 6/29; 2026-06-28 MTH 4f 52.20 B MT ft 78/84 · barn: same as lastfClm8000n2l → Clm 8000n2lPOTTS WAYNEfield
13BY MY DREAMSCEDENO CAROL8.0SRising figsSame trip2026-10-03 MTH 4f 49.40 B MT ft 12/28; 2026-07-24 MTH 4f 47.40 Hg MT ft bullet 1/35 · barn: same as lastfClm7500b → Clm 8000n2lAVILA JUAN CARLOSfield
1COUNTRY ECONOMICSFERNANDEZ MARVIN10.0E—2026-06-18 MBF 4f 51.00 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-04-04 TAM 4f 49.00 B MT ft 15/81 · barn: same as lastfClm8000n2l → Clm 8000n2lVAZQUEZ JOSE JUANfield
2FLEECHEMINAUD VINCENT10.0P—2026-06-30 DEL 4f 50.80 B MT ft 17/21; 2026-05-05 PRX 4f 49.40 B MT ft 21/36 · barn: same as lastfClm8000n2l → Clm 8000n2lSIMONE MICHAEL Vfield
3LITTLE GUSSIECEDENO CAROL10.0EPSame trip2026-07-28 CNL 4f 48.60 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-07-02 WM 4f 50.00 B MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as lastfClm8000n2l → Clm 8000n2lRAMOS BENfield
11RUN CHACHY RUNLUNA PAUL A12.0CSame trip2026-08-14 DEL 4f 50.60 B MT ft 19/33; 2026-07-25 DEL 4f 51.00 B MT ft 44/52 · barn: same as lastfClm8000n2l → Clm 8000n2lNAZARIO PEDROfield
8CITIFIEDWILLIAMS AJHARI15.0PRising figsTrouble lastSame trip2026-07-01 DEL 4f 50.60 B MT ft 23/30; 2026-06-24 DEL 3f 36.00 B MT ft bullet 1/9 · barn: same as lastfClm7500n2l → Clm 8000n2lBRYANT DONALD Lprimed
10KAZILLIONBETANCOURT JOSE R15.0C3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-15 DEL 4f 50.80 B MT ft 44/67; 2026-08-09 DEL 4f 52.00 B MT ft 8/8 · barn: same as lastfMd8000 → Clm 8000n2lMARTIN CLYDE Wfield
7GO ALICE GOHERMAN NOEL20.0EPSame trip2026-09-10 PRX 4f 48.80 B MT ft bullet 1/8; 2026-06-08 PRX 4f 51.40 B MT ft 10/10 · barn: same as lastfOC16000 → Clm 8000n2lNICHOLSON JUNIOR Wfield
6BIG BOLTYANCAPALLO GOMOCIO SHIRLE20.0CSame trip2026-07-25 DEL 4f 48.80 Bg MT ft 7/52; 2026-06-02 DEL 3f 35.60 B MT ft bullet 1/6 · barn: same as lastfClm8000n2l → Clm 8000n2lSMITH COLLIEfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed
  1. RACEDEL R9 · 2026-10-09 · Dirt 1210y · Clm 8000n2l
  2. SHAPEWall of five pressers ensures honest-to-brutal fractions; inside/speed bias cuts against wide-running closers but the speed will cook itself
  3. CHALKFavorite#4 FLOY JOY · fade · fig -1 in last (eased), fig 80 two starts back was a different horse, steep ALW drop looks like a barn managing a problem not a weapon
  4. LEANWinner call#9 MOLLY THE CAT · top fig in field (72), class dropper from fMd16000, rising cycle (72>67>62 then 72 off the win), EP style can clear on the inside in post 9 if the duel bunches — best number, best recent form
  5. PRIMED#8 CITIFIED (rising figs 67>61, trouble last — broke slowly)
  6. PRICE#9 MOLLY THE CAT edge 0.021 at ML 4.5 · no other non-chalk overlay on the brief
  7. PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #9 MOLLY THE CAT is the only overlay and she is not chalk by strict definition (ML 4.5, not the shortest), but at 4.5-1 morning line in a 13-horse $8K field the price is thin for a win ticket; no second overlay exists to anchor a play
  8. KILL#4 FLOY JOY fires first start for Lynch off the layoff (1st-start-with-trainer ROI 19.11 on 7 starts is real); pace somehow goes slow and the speed dusters all last; inside bias buries #9 from post 9
  9. MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest

Why

Dirt sprint, cheap $8K n2l claimer at DEL with a 13-horse field and a wall of five early/pressers fighting for the lead — volatility is high. The pace map is a pressure extreme that strongly favors the midpack and late runners over the chalk (#4 FLOY JOY, a steep class dropper at 3.5-1 whose recent form is a fig of -1 and an eased effort, facing a bias that rewards inside and early speed she no longer reliably provides). #8 CITIFIED is the sheet's primed non-chalk with rising figs (67 over 61), broke slowly last out (trouble), and a P style that can sit second or third off the chaos and hit the board at a price — she has a path in A and B.

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Pace + drop

#4 FLOY JOYLYNCH CATHALPD same · not figML 3.5Class dropBarn changeTop last paceSame trip

Price overlays

#9 MOLLY THE CAT+2.1%ML 4.5Rising figsTop last figSame trip
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Ready, not overlaid

#8 CITIFIEDML 15.0Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
9MOLLY THE CAT4.513.3%15.4%+2.1%0.74EPRising figsTop last figSame trip—
4FLOY JOY3.516.2%14.8%-1.4%-0.22EPfavoriteClass dropBarn changeTop last paceSame trip—
12PHOEBEINWONDERLAND6.010.4%11.6%+1.2%0.58PTag drop—
5CHARMING JENNIE6.010.4%10.6%+0.2%0.21PRising figsSame trip—
13BY MY DREAMS8.08.1%8.1%-0.0%0.14SRising figsSame trip—
1COUNTRY ECONOMICS10.06.6%7.0%+0.4%0.37E—
2FLEE10.06.6%6.4%-0.2%-0.00P—
3LITTLE GUSSIE10.06.6%6.2%-0.4%-0.13EPSame trip—
11RUN CHACHY RUN12.05.6%5.6%+0.0%0.17CSame trip—
8CITIFIED15.04.6%4.6%+0.0%0.16PRising figsTrouble lastSame trip—
10KAZILLION15.04.6%4.1%-0.5%-0.32C3rd start cycleSame trip—
7GO ALICE GO20.03.5%3.4%-0.1%0.08EPSame trip—
6BIG BOLT20.03.5%2.2%-1.3%-1.77CSame trip—