CT R6 · 2026-10-09
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#1 #3 #7 #5 #4)
Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#1YULETIDE GALLOPE
- C2#3BALLINACLASHEP
- C3#7NO TIME TO BOOGIEEP
- C4#6RE MARKABLYP
- C5#2DEAN DELIVERSP
- C6#5KATMANDUEP
- C7#4JUDGEMENT DAYEP
- C8#8SPRINGHAWKS
Honest pace among #1 YULETIDE GALLOP and #3 BALLINACLASH and #7 NO TIME TO BOOGIE and #5 KATMANDU and #4 JUDGEMENT DAY. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 RE MARKABLY, #2 DEAN DELIVERS, #8 SPRINGHAWK · hurts #1 YULETIDE GALLOP, #3 BALLINACLASH, #7 NO TIME TO BOOGIE, #5 KATMANDU, #4 JUDGEMENT DAY
Pressure: #1 YULETIDE GALLOP and #3 BALLINACLASH and #7 NO TIME TO BOOGIE and #5 KATMANDU and #4 JUDGEMENT DAY hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 RE MARKABLY, #2 DEAN DELIVERS, #8 SPRINGHAWK · hurts #1 YULETIDE GALLOP, #3 BALLINACLASH, #7 NO TIME TO BOOGIE, #5 KATMANDU, #4 JUDGEMENT DAY
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#8 SPRINGHAWK).
Helps #8 SPRINGHAWK · hurts #1 YULETIDE GALLOP, #3 BALLINACLASH, #7 NO TIME TO BOOGIE, #5 KATMANDU, #4 JUDGEMENT DAY
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | RE MARKABLYBARBOSA JEIRON | 1.4 | P | Barn changeTop last figSame trip2026-10-04 LRL 4f 50.00 B MT my 12/18; 2026-09-17 MTH 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/13 · barn: change vs SYNNEFIAS PANAGIOTIS A | OC40000n2x → OClm 25000b | FARRIOR ANTHONY | Favorite |
| 2 | DEAN DELIVERSLOPEZ CARLOS EDUARDO | 4.0 | P | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-26 LRL 4f 48.20 B MT ft 4/109; 2026-09-19 LRL 4f 51.20 B MT ft 65/69 · barn: same as last | OC20000 → OClm 25000b | BAILES W ROBERT | field |
| 3 | BALLINACLASHCRUZ ANGEL | 5.0 | EP | Rising figsClass dropSame trip2026-09-12 FAI 4f 48.60 B MT ft 2/17; 2026-08-21 FAI 4f 48.80 B TT ft 4/38 · barn: same as last | Alw34100n1x → OClm 25000b | SCHOENTHAL PHIL | primed |
| 1 | YULETIDE GALLOPDIAZ JOSE Y | 8.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-09-26 CT 4f 52.80 B MT ft 33/34; 2026-07-11 PRX 4f 51.40 B MT ft 61/64 · barn: same as last | OC15000n1x → OClm 25000b | CLATTERBUCK RONALD | overlay |
| 8 | SPRINGHAWKARROYO BUENO NOMAR | 6.0 | S | Same trip2026-09-30 CT 3f 35.40 B MT ft 2/9; 2026-09-19 CT 3f 35.60 B MT ft 2/27 · barn: same as last | OC25000b → OClm 25000b | JOY KEVIN J | field |
| 4 | JUDGEMENT DAYREYNOLDS L C | 8.0 | EP | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-08-20 CT 3f 35.60 B MT ft 2/9; 2026-06-26 CT 4f 47.80 B MT ft 3/30 · barn: same as last | OC30000n2x → OClm 25000b | GRAMS TIMOTHY C | field |
| 5 | KATMANDUEBOW WARREN III | 12.0 | EP | Rising figsClass dropTop last pace2026-09-24 CT 4f 49.80 B MT gd 4/7; 2026-09-08 CT 3f 36.20 B MT ft 4/11 · barn: same as last | Alw20160n3x → OClm 25000b | RUNCO JEFF C | pace + drop |
| 7 | NO TIME TO BOOGIEDAVIS JACQUELINE A | 20.0 | EP | Rising figsClass dropLed lastSame trip2026-04-03 CT 3f 36.80 B MT ft 3/13; 2026-01-09 CT 3f 36.80 B MT ft 3/22 · barn: same as last | Alw35300n3l → OClm 25000b | ATKINS MICHAEL G | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACECT R6 · 2026-10-09 · D / 1430y / OClm 25000b
- SHAPEWall of five early/pressers (#1 #3 #4 #5 #7) sets up extreme pace pressure — stalkers/closers #6 #2 #8 inherit; #6 RE MARKABLY gets the softest trip of the closers from post 6
- CHALKFavorite#6 RE MARKABLY · solid · top fig in the field (91 peak, 85-86 last two), bullet works, real class drop, barn change to a high-win meet trainer; pace style lets it avoid the early carnage — opposable only on price, not on shape
- LEANWinner call#6 RE MARKABLY · class best, pace path cleanest, barn intent visible
- PRIMED#3 BALLINACLASH (rising figs 75→80, class drop ALW→OClm, won at CT last, EP post 3 survives the duel or rolls past it); #7 NO TIME TO BOOGIE (rising figs 67→79, class drop, led last at 990y, but 20-1 ML and pace-heavy — needs a miracle trip at 1430y)
- PRICE#1 YULETIDE GALLOP edge 0.022 per model — only non-chalk overlay; no other price horse clears
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #1 YULETIDE GALLOP is the lone model overlay but is lone-speed E style into five rivals who want to go forward; its best figs (77, 77) are well below chalk's 85-91 range; a duel kills it and the shape is a duel. No non-chalk price horse has a clean A/B path at a number worth taking.
- KILLIf #3 BALLINACLASH or another EP clears cleanly and gets a soft lead, pace meltdown scenario dissolves and chalk's trip tightens — chalk still likely wins but at 1.4 that is not your problem
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/track condition update, rider changes not on PP lines
Why
Dirt sprint at an optional-claim $25k level with a wall of early/presser speed and a chalk that just dropped from OC40k — moderate-to-high volatility given the pace meltdown setup. Shape is extreme-pressure with five E/EP types likely tangling, which benefits the stalkers/closers behind them, but chalk #6 RE MARKABLY (ML 1.4) is the class horse here with the top speed fig, a sharp barn change to a hot meet trainer, bullet works, and a pace style that lets it sit fourth and pounce — solid, hard to beat on ability, just very short. Best primed non-chalk is #3 BALLINACLASH (ML 5), who won at CT last out at 1540y, drops from ALW to OClm, is sitting on a rising-fig cycle (80 off 75), and maps to the EP slot behind the early duel with a clean inside post — has a genuine A/B path to run them down if the pace meltdown fires.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Pace + drop
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | RE MARKABLY | 1.4 | 32.7% | 38.7% | +5.9% | 0.97 | P | favoriteBarn changeTop last figSame trip | — |
| 2 | DEAN DELIVERS | 4.0 | 15.7% | 14.2% | -1.6% | -0.11 | P | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 3 | BALLINACLASH | 5.0 | 13.1% | 13.0% | -0.1% | 0.27 | EP | Rising figsClass dropSame trip | — |
| 1 | YULETIDE GALLOP | 8.0 | 8.7% | 11.0% | +2.2% | 1.22 | E | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 8 | SPRINGHAWK | 6.0 | 11.2% | 8.5% | -2.7% | -0.79 | S | Same trip | — |
| 4 | JUDGEMENT DAY | 8.0 | 8.7% | 6.3% | -2.4% | -0.97 | EP | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 5 | KATMANDU | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.1% | -1.0% | -0.41 | EP | Rising figsClass dropTop last pace | — |
| 7 | NO TIME TO BOOGIE | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.4% | -0.19 | EP | Rising figsClass dropLed lastSame trip | — |