DED R9 · 2026-10-09

PASSD1100y3 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

No dedicated early — closers need collapse

Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#6SHINOVARP
C2#3FIXATEDC
C3#9HERMOSA ITALIANAUU
C4#11FLORA BOUNDS
C5#5BOBBYS NATIVE ONEC
C6#4SPICY MUSTARDC
C7#7CANDY GIRL MISSC
C8#12SAUCY DIEMS
C9#10ARICELI ACESC
C10#1PRONE TO GREATNESSS
C11#2NORTH LAKE KATEC
C12#8THE RED WICKED ONEUU

A · Likely — expected flow

No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.

Helps #6 SHINOVAR, #11 FLORA BOUND, #12 SAUCY DIEM, #1 PRONE TO GREATNESS · hurts —

B · Pressure — duel / honest

A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.

Helps #6 SHINOVAR, #11 FLORA BOUND, #12 SAUCY DIEM, #1 PRONE TO GREATNESS · hurts —

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 FIXATED, #11 FLORA BOUND, #5 BOBBYS NATIVE ONE, #4 SPICY MUSTARD, #7 CANDY GIRL MISS, #12 SAUCY DIEM, #10 ARICELI ACES, #1 PRONE TO GREATNESS, #2 NORTH LAKE KATE).

Helps #3 FIXATED, #11 FLORA BOUND, #5 BOBBYS NATIVE ONE, #4 SPICY MUSTARD, #7 CANDY GIRL MISS, #12 SAUCY DIEM, #10 ARICELI ACES, #1 PRONE TO GREATNESS, #2 NORTH LAKE KATE · hurts —

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
6	SHINOVARBIRZER A E	3.0	P	Trouble lastMSW → MCLSharp workSame trip2026-10-02 DED 3f 36.40 B MT ft bullet 1/19; 2026-08-25 LAD 4f 51.20 B MT ft 28/39 · barn: same as last	fMdSpWt → Md 10000	GELNER JAYDE J	Favorite
4	SPICY MUSTARDLOZADA CARLOS	6.0	C	Rising figsMSW → MCLSharp workTop last figSame trip2026-10-03 FG 3f 36.20 B MT gd bullet 1/28; 2026-07-18 EVD 3f 37.00 B MT ft 3/23 · barn: same as last	fMdSpWt → Md 10000	THOMAS LEE	field
8	THE RED WICKED ONEFUSILIER C	4.0	U	MSW → MCLSame trip2026-10-02 DED 4f 51.00 Bg MT ft 17/68; 2026-09-12 EVD 4f 51.80 B MT ft 13/15 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md 10000	LANDRY ALLEN RAY	field
3	FIXATEDPEREZ CARLOS	6.0	C	2nd off layoffTrouble lastMSW → MCLTop last paceSame trip2026-08-19 EVD 4f 49.20 Bg MT ft 4/12; 2026-08-08 EVD 4f 49.00 B MT ft 2/52 · barn: same as last	fMdSpWt → Md 10000	NOEL DANE	primed
9	HERMOSA ITALIANABARRERA ELIO J	6.0	U	Same trip2026-09-22 DED 4f 51.20 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-09-08 EVD 4f 51.80 Bg MT ft 10/14 · barn: same as last	fsMd10000 → Md 10000	CANO JUAN MUNOZ	field
5	BOBBYS NATIVE ONEMELANCON JANSEN	8.0	C	Rising figs2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip2026-10-01 DED 4f 50.80 Bg MT ft 8/49; 2026-09-22 DED 3f 36.80 Bg MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last	fsMdSpWt → Md 10000	DEGEYTER RANDY JR	primed
2	NORTH LAKE KATERAMOS A B	10.0	C	Rising figsSame trip2026-09-17 ARP 4f 49.80 B MT ft 4/8; 2026-04-22 OP 4f 51.20 B MT ft 19/23 · barn: same as last	fMd10000 → Md 10000	HIBDON MARK N	field
7	CANDY GIRL MISSSANTIAGO EDWARD	15.0	C	Trouble lastSame trip2026-04-11 EVD 5f 66.20 B MT ft 25/27; 2026-03-28 EVD 5f 66.40 B MT ft 13/15 · barn: same as last	fsMd5000 → Md 10000	LANDRY JACOBY	field
10	ARICELI ACESARANA KELVIN	15.0	C	Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip2026-09-29 DED 4f 52.60 Bg MT ft 6/22; 2026-09-19 DED 3f 40.20 B MT ft 21/22 · barn: same as last	fsMd5000 → Md 10000	AVERETT RONNIE	primed
11	FLORA BOUNDHERNANDEZ HARRY	20.0	S	3rd start cycleLed lastBarn changeSame trip2026-10-02 DED 4f 50.20 B MT ft 8/68; 2026-09-18 DED 3f 37.80 B MT ft 4/8 · barn: change vs BREAUX SAMUEL	fsMd5000 → Md 10000	AVERETT RONNIE	field
1	PRONE TO GREATNESSALVAREZ MISAEL	20.0	S	Barn change2026-10-02 EVD 3f 39.00 B MT ft 2/3; 2026-07-02 EVD 3f 36.80 B MT ft 2/5 · barn: change vs POMIER CHASEY DEVILLE	fMd5000 → Md 10000	LANDRY JACOBY	field
12	SAUCY DIEMRAMIREZ JULIO JR	20.0	S	Trouble lastSame trip2026-10-06 DED 3f 37.80 B MT ft 4/13; 2026-09-26 DED 4f 49.40 B MT ft 2/68 · barn: same as last	fsMd10000 → Md 10000	BREAUX SAMUEL	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACEDED R9 · 2026-10-09 · Dirt 1100y · Md 10000 · 12f
SHAPENo dedicated early; crawl likely; lone presser #6 controls; closers need a duel that may never come
CHALKFavorite#6 SHINOVAR · solid · lone pace advantage in a field of closers; bullet work 10/2; class drop MSW→MCL; shape is directly in its favor
LEANWinner call#6 SHINOVAR · winner call; best pace path in Scenario A
PRIMED#3 FIXATED (2nd off layoff, trouble last — but fig 37, C-only path); #5 BOBBYS NATIVE ONE (rising figs, 2nd off layoff — stopped hard, C-only path); #10 ARICELI ACES (rising figs, trouble last — C-only path); all three need chaos to win
PRICENo non-chalk overlays — sheet rec PASS confirmed
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILLAny hidden early type pressing #6 into a duel; #8 THE RED WICKED ONE unknown style could be surprise speed; live tote shortening #6 below 5-2 removes any residual interest
MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition, style confirmation for #8 and #9

Why

Dirt sprint maiden claimer at Delta Downs, 12 horses, no dedicated early speed — crawl pace that favors any presser who clears, extreme volatility in a field where figs top out in the low 70s and half the field are MSW droppers.

Chalk #6 SHINOVAR is the lone presser in a field of closers, has the highest zSpeed and a bullet last week, and the shape runs directly through it — short at 3-1 ML but structurally sound. The three primed horses (#3, #5, #10) are all closers who need something to chase, and the crawl map says there may be nothing to chase.

#5 BOBBYS NATIVE ONE is 2nd off a 380-day layoff with rising figs and a barn (DEGEYTER) that wins 26.9% second off the layoff with a +0.54 ROI, but it stopped hard last out and is a pure closer in a no-pace race — needs Scenario C to fire, which makes it price-only, not the play; the sheet produces no non-chalk overlays.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#3 FIXATEDML 6.02nd off layoffTrouble lastMSW → MCLTop last paceSame trip

#5 BOBBYS NATIVE ONEML 8.0Rising figs2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip

#10 ARICELI ACESML 15.0Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
6	SHINOVAR	3.0	18.5%	22.6%	+4.1%	1.03	P	favoriteTrouble lastMSW → MCLSharp workSame trip	—
4	SPICY MUSTARD	6.0	10.6%	12.1%	+1.5%	0.77	C	Rising figsMSW → MCLSharp workTop last figSame trip	—
8	THE RED WICKED ONE	4.0	14.8%	12.0%	-2.8%	-0.61	U	MSW → MCLSame trip	—
3	FIXATED	6.0	10.6%	10.7%	+0.1%	0.29	C	2nd off layoffTrouble lastMSW → MCLTop last paceSame trip	—
9	HERMOSA ITALIANA	6.0	10.6%	10.6%	+0.0%	0.24	U	Same trip	—
5	BOBBYS NATIVE ONE	8.0	8.2%	7.6%	-0.6%	-0.07	C	Rising figs2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip	—
2	NORTH LAKE KATE	10.0	6.7%	6.7%	-0.0%	0.21	C	Rising figsSame trip	—
7	CANDY GIRL MISS	15.0	4.6%	4.6%	+0.0%	0.24	C	Trouble lastSame trip	—
10	ARICELI ACES	15.0	4.6%	4.6%	+0.0%	0.24	C	Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip	—
11	FLORA BOUND	20.0	3.5%	3.4%	-0.1%	0.11	S	3rd start cycleLed lastBarn changeSame trip	—
1	PRONE TO GREATNESS	20.0	3.5%	2.7%	-0.8%	-0.85	S	Barn change	—
12	SAUCY DIEM	20.0	3.5%	2.2%	-1.3%	-1.58	S	Trouble lastSame trip	—