DED R7 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#7 vs #10)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#7FLAME MCGOONEP
- C2#10SECUREDEP
- C3#6ROSE DARLINGP
- C4#5ANSLIES GUMDROPS
- C5#9SPEED LANES
- C6#8DOLLYS GUITARC
- C7#4TAKEITTOTHEHOUSEC
- C8#1BLESSED ASSURANCEC
- C9#2PERCEPTIVEC
- C10#3ROSIEONTHERIVERC
Honest pace among #7 FLAME MCGOON and #10 SECURED. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 ROSE DARLING, #5 ANSLIES GUMDROP, #9 SPEED LANE · hurts #7 FLAME MCGOON, #10 SECURED
Pressure: #7 FLAME MCGOON and #10 SECURED hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 ROSE DARLING, #5 ANSLIES GUMDROP, #9 SPEED LANE · hurts #7 FLAME MCGOON, #10 SECURED
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 ANSLIES GUMDROP, #9 SPEED LANE, #8 DOLLYS GUITAR, #4 TAKEITTOTHEHOUSE, #1 BLESSED ASSURANCE, #2 PERCEPTIVE, #3 ROSIEONTHERIVER).
Helps #5 ANSLIES GUMDROP, #9 SPEED LANE, #8 DOLLYS GUITAR, #4 TAKEITTOTHEHOUSE, #1 BLESSED ASSURANCE, #2 PERCEPTIVE, #3 ROSIEONTHERIVER · hurts #7 FLAME MCGOON, #10 SECURED
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SPEED LANECASTILLO ISAAC | 2.0 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip2026-10-03 LAD 4f 48.40 B MT ft 5/14; 2026-09-23 LAD 4f 51.00 B MT ft 26/40 · barn: same as last | fOC10000 → OClm 8000 | DIODORO ROBERTINO | Favorite |
| 7 | FLAME MCGOONHERNANDEZ JAVIER ANTONIO | 3.5 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleBarn changeTop last paceSame trip2026-09-19 LAD 4f 50.20 B MT ft 8/21; 2026-08-25 LAD 4f 49.20 B MT ft 5/39 · barn: change vs DIODORO ROBERTINO | fClm7500bc → OClm 8000 | RAMAEKERS ERIC | primed |
| 5 | ANSLIES GUMDROPFUSILIER C | 6.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-06-30 CCT 4f 51.20 B MT ft 17/32; 2026-05-09 EVD 4f 50.80 B MT sy 3/12 · barn: same as last | fClm7500b → OClm 8000 | LANDRY ALLEN RAY | field |
| 8 | DOLLYS GUITARVARGAS JUAN P | 6.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-10-03 DED 4f 52.20 B MT ft 49/76; 2026-09-18 EVD 4f 52.20 B MT ft 23/33 · barn: same as last | fsOC20000n2x → OClm 8000 | LARROSA JUAN A | field |
| 10 | SECUREDTHORNTON T G | 10.0 | EP | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip2026-10-03 FG 4f 50.80 B MT gd 20/30; 2026-08-11 CCT 4f 51.20 B MT ft 24/37 · barn: change vs CALHOUN WILLIAM BRET | fClm4000b → OClm 8000 | MOUTON CHADWICK J | field |
| 2 | PERCEPTIVECARDOSO DAVID | 10.0 | C | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-14 ARP 4f 48.80 B MT ft 1/2; 2025-10-04 DED 4f 49.80 B MT ft 8/99 · barn: same as last | fSueWallis40k → OClm 8000 | HIBDON MARK N | field |
| 6 | ROSE DARLINGLOZADA CARLOS | 12.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-17 LAD 5f 64.00 B MT ft 6/10; 2026-07-21 LAD 3f 38.20 B MT ft 3/5 · barn: same as last | fOC10000 → OClm 8000 | LARA JORGE | field |
| 3 | ROSIEONTHERIVERMUDD JAMISON | 12.0 | C | Same trip2026-07-29 LAD 4f 49.00 B MT ft 2/34; 2026-07-03 LAD 4f 49.00 B MT ft 13/28 · barn: same as last | fOC15000n1x → OClm 8000 | BROUSSARD JERVON | field |
| 4 | TAKEITTOTHEHOUSEARANA KELVIN | 15.0 | C | Same trip2026-07-10 EVD 4f 53.60 B MT ft 40/40; 2026-07-03 EVD 4f 49.80 B MT ft 12/30 · barn: same as last | fClm7500b → OClm 8000 | DAIGLE WALTER | field |
| 1 | BLESSED ASSURANCERODRIGUEZ JOSE LUIS | 20.0 | C | Tag dropBarn changeSame trip2026-01-17 DED 4f 51.00 B MT ft 38/65; 2025-12-16 DED 5f 66.60 B MT ft 4/5 · barn: change vs RODRIGUEZ-TORRES PEDRO | fsClm12500b → OClm 8000 | GOVEA CESAR | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEDED R7 · 2026-10-10 · D / 1430y / OClm 8000
- SHAPETwo-speed duel risk (#7 vs #10); pressure high; stalkers and closers land with a lane
- CHALKFavorite#9 SPEED LANE · usable but short · 2nd off a long layoff, best fig matches the field, class down, but 2-1 is too skinny to play
- LEANWinner call#7 FLAME MCGOON · pace control + 3rd-cycle fitness + top E1; can set or control fractions and hold
- PRIMED#7 FLAME MCGOON [rising_figs, third_start_cycle, barn_change, top_last_pace, same_trip]
- PRICE#7 FLAME MCGOON · ML 3.5 · edge 0.036 (only non-chalk overlay on the sheet)
- PLAYPrice ticket#7 FLAME MCGOON · win · min 3-1 (pass if board opens shorter)
- KILL#10 SECURED forces an honest duel that empties both speed horses; SPEED LANE sits stalking and finishes with a clean trip; FLAME MCGOON's lone dirt line (79 at a class dip) may not translate if field is faster than it looks
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather / surface condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint OClm 8000 at DED, field of 10, moderate-to-high volatility given a pace duel at the front and a deep closer contingent. Two EP types (#7 FLAME MCGOON, #10 SECURED) figure to hook up early, setting up a legitimate pressure scenario that benefits stalkers; chalk #9 SPEED LANE is a 526-day returnee who led last at a higher tag but is short at 2-1 on a clear step down in competition and a favorable but narrow shape edge. #7 FLAME MCGOON is the primed non-chalk: rising figs (74→79), third start of cycle, barn change, top E1 in the field (94), and a pace path squarely in Scenario A/B as the pace-setter — if the duel does not materialize or he gets a soft lead, his e1 advantage and 3rd-cycle fitness are a real combination at 3.5-1 ML. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SPEED LANE | 2.0 | 25.9% | 27.6% | +1.7% | 0.63 | S | favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip | — |
| 7 | FLAME MCGOON | 3.5 | 17.3% | 20.9% | +3.6% | 1.14 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleBarn changeTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 5 | ANSLIES GUMDROP | 6.0 | 11.1% | 12.0% | +0.9% | 0.68 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 8 | DOLLYS GUITAR | 6.0 | 11.1% | 10.6% | -0.5% | 0.20 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 10 | SECURED | 10.0 | 7.1% | 6.9% | -0.2% | 0.26 | EP | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 2 | PERCEPTIVE | 10.0 | 7.1% | 6.3% | -0.7% | -0.05 | C | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 6 | ROSE DARLING | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.6% | -0.4% | 0.10 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 3 | ROSIEONTHERIVER | 12.0 | 6.0% | 4.1% | -1.8% | -1.09 | C | Same trip | — |
| 4 | TAKEITTOTHEHOUSE | 15.0 | 4.9% | 3.2% | -1.7% | -1.30 | C | Same trip | — |
| 1 | BLESSED ASSURANCE | 20.0 | 3.7% | 2.9% | -0.8% | -0.57 | C | Tag dropBarn changeSame trip | — |