KEE R3 · 2026-10-09
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find KEE R3 · 2026-10-09 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #7 LECOMPTES RUN
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#1SILVER ROADUU
- C2#7LECOMPTES RUNEP
- C3#6DAZZLINGP
- C4#8SMOKES
- C5#2EARLY AUTUMNC
- C6#4LUCKY BERNADINEC
- C7#3ESTARDOTOOC
- C8#5CASABLANCA QUEENS
#7 LECOMPTES RUN controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #7 LECOMPTES RUN · hurts #8 SMOKE, #2 EARLY AUTUMN, #4 LUCKY BERNADINE, #3 ESTARDOTOO, #5 CASABLANCA QUEEN
Someone presses #7 LECOMPTES RUN. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #6 DAZZLING, #8 SMOKE, #5 CASABLANCA QUEEN · hurts #7 LECOMPTES RUN
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#8 SMOKE, #2 EARLY AUTUMN, #4 LUCKY BERNADINE, #3 ESTARDOTOO, #5 CASABLANCA QUEEN).
Helps #8 SMOKE, #2 EARLY AUTUMN, #4 LUCKY BERNADINE, #3 ESTARDOTOO, #5 CASABLANCA QUEEN · hurts #7 LECOMPTES RUN
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SMOKEGAFFALIONE TYLER | 2.5 | S | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-10-04 CD 4f 50.00 B MT ft 97/125; 2026-09-27 CD 5f 62.40 B MT ft 12/16 · barn: same as last | fJuvFillisL750k → Alw 120000n2l | WALSH BRENDAN P | Favorite |
| 6 | DAZZLINGORTIZ JOSE L | 3.0 | P | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-10-03 KEE 4f 49.80 B MT ft 41/60; 2026-09-26 ELP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 29/33 · barn: same as last | fJuvFillisL750k → Alw 120000n2l | ASMUSSEN STEVEN M | field |
| 4 | LUCKY BERNADINEGUTIERREZ MARIO | 4.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-26 ELP 4f 49.00 B MT ft 13/33; 2026-09-19 ELP 4f 49.00 B MT ft 14/36 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Alw 120000n2l | COX BRAD H | primed |
| 1 | SILVER ROADORTIZ IRAD JR | 4.5 | U | Top last paceSame trip2026-10-02 KEE 4f 48.40 B MT ft 25/85; 2026-09-20 TP 4f 49.00 B MT ft 14/88 · barn: same as last | frMdSpWt → Alw 120000n2l | COX BRAD H | field |
| 2 | EARLY AUTUMNVELAZQUEZ J R | 6.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-26 TP 4f 49.80 B MT ft 76/97; 2026-08-05 PRX 3f 35.80 Bg MT ft bullet 1/5 · barn: same as last | fJuvFillisL750k → Alw 120000n2l | SERVIS JOHN C | field |
| 7 | LECOMPTES RUNACHARD ALEX | 10.0 | EP | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-09-17 TTC 5f 63.60 B MT ft 9/10; 2026-09-10 TTC 4f 49.80 B MT ft 5/25 · barn: same as last | fAlw126757n2l → Alw 120000n2l | ENNIS JOHN | field |
| 3 | ESTARDOTOOGRISALES RAVE DANILO | 15.0 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-22 TP 4f 52.80 B MT ft 96/96; 2026-08-14 TP 4f 51.80 B MT ft 63/68 · barn: same as last | fAlw126757n2l → Alw 120000n2l | ESQUIVEL GUSTAVO | field |
| 5 | CASABLANCA QUEENSAEZ LUIS | 20.0 | S | Same trip2026-10-02 CD 4f 49.40 B MT my 39/64; 2026-09-26 CD 4f 49.00 B MT ft 82/155 · barn: same as last | fJuvFillisL750k → Alw 120000n2l | D'ANGELO JOSE FRANCISCO | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEKEE R3 · 2026-10-09 · Turf 1870y · Alw 120000n2l
- SHAPELone speed (#7 LECOMPTES RUN) into a wall of closers; Scenario A favors the front; Scenario B needed for any price horse to fire
- CHALKFavorite#8 SMOKE · 2.5-1 · usable but short — 2nd off layoff is live, Walsh works are crisp, but closer from post 8 needs pace melt that Scenario A does not deliver
- LEANWinner call#8 SMOKE · chalk, best overall profile and deepest works, survives even without a melt if #6 DAZZLING applies moderate pressure (Scenario B)
- PRIMED#4 LUCKY BERNADINE — rising figs, 2nd off layoff, Cox route angle; needs Scenario B to have a closing lane
- PRICEno price (zero non-chalk overlays per ingest; #4 at 4-1 has positive edge signal 0.52 but overlay=false)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — no non-chalk overlay clears; sheet rec is PASS
- KILL#6 DAZZLING or any presser pushing #7 early collapses the soft-lead thesis and opens the race wide for closers, flipping the result away from LEAN
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, going report / rail position, weather or off-turf alert
Why
Turf route for 2yo fillies at allowance level — moderate class, field of 8, moderate volatility given the lone-speed shape and a chalk dropping from a $750k stakes. #7 LECOMPTES RUN projects as the lone pace setter into a stalker/closer field, which sets up a soft lead scenario that benefits the front-runner but leaves the chalk (#8 SMOKE, a closer from post 8 off a 65-day return) dependent on a pace melt that Scenario A says never comes. #4 LUCKY BERNADINE is the primed non-chalk — rising figs (+6 pts last out), 2nd off layoff (51-day gap into the win, now tightening), Cox barn firing at 26-28% routes/turf, and a closing style that needs Scenario B (pressure on #7) to open up ground late; at 4-1 morning line she has a path but zero model overlay. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SMOKE | 2.5 | 22.7% | 23.4% | +0.8% | 0.34 | S | favorite2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 6 | DAZZLING | 3.0 | 19.8% | 19.8% | +0.0% | 0.20 | P | Rising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 4 | LUCKY BERNADINE | 4.0 | 15.9% | 17.2% | +1.3% | 0.52 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 1 | SILVER ROAD | 4.5 | 14.4% | 13.2% | -1.2% | -0.16 | U | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 2 | EARLY AUTUMN | 6.0 | 11.3% | 12.5% | +1.1% | 0.58 | C | Same trip | — |
| 7 | LECOMPTES RUN | 10.0 | 7.2% | 6.5% | -0.7% | -0.22 | EP | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 3 | ESTARDOTOO | 15.0 | 5.0% | 5.0% | -0.0% | 0.20 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 5 | CASABLANCA QUEEN | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.5% | -1.3% | -1.46 | S | Same trip | — |