IND R6 · 2026-09-30
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#3 #9 #6 #5 #8 #2)
Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3BUTCHS BESTE
- C2#9RAMBERTE
- C3#6POWERIZEDE
- C4#5DECATUR STREETEP
- C5#8SAINT IN THE CITYE
- C6#2SAWYER FOXEP
- C7#10JR JIMMYP
- C8#1SPOKEC
- C9#7MAJOR WAGERC
- C10#4AMERICAN WINDS
Honest pace among #3 BUTCHS BEST and #9 RAMBERT and #6 POWERIZED and #5 DECATUR STREET and #8 SAINT IN THE CITY and #2 SAWYER FOX. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #10 JR JIMMY, #4 AMERICAN WIND · hurts #3 BUTCHS BEST, #9 RAMBERT, #6 POWERIZED, #5 DECATUR STREET, #8 SAINT IN THE CITY, #2 SAWYER FOX
Pressure: #3 BUTCHS BEST and #9 RAMBERT and #6 POWERIZED and #5 DECATUR STREET and #8 SAINT IN THE CITY and #2 SAWYER FOX hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #10 JR JIMMY, #4 AMERICAN WIND · hurts #3 BUTCHS BEST, #9 RAMBERT, #6 POWERIZED, #5 DECATUR STREET, #8 SAINT IN THE CITY, #2 SAWYER FOX
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 SPOKE, #7 MAJOR WAGER, #4 AMERICAN WIND).
Helps #1 SPOKE, #7 MAJOR WAGER, #4 AMERICAN WIND · hurts #3 BUTCHS BEST, #9 RAMBERT, #6 POWERIZED, #5 DECATUR STREET, #8 SAINT IN THE CITY, #2 SAWYER FOX
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MAJOR WAGERJIMENEZ ALBIN | 3.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip2026-08-21 TP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 77/82; 2026-05-28 TP 4f 50.20 B MT ft 39/53 · barn: same as last | Clm12500 → Clm 12500 | GRUBBS JAMIE L | Favorite |
| 3 | BUTCHS BESTMURRILL MITCHELL | 5.0 | E | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-08-18 IND 4f 49.00 B MT ft 18/49; 2026-07-31 IND 4f 52.00 B MT ft 47/58 · barn: same as last | Clm12500 → Clm 12500 | DOBBSJR ROBERT E | field |
| 4 | AMERICAN WINDCRISPIN ALEXANDER | 4.5 | S | 3rd start cycleClass dropSame trip2026-08-28 IND 3f 38.80 B MT ft 14/22; 2026-08-15 IND 4f 52.00 B MT ft 76/77 · barn: same as last | Alw43520n1x → Clm 12500 | GONZALEZ AGUSTIN JR | primed |
| 1 | SPOKEPEDROZA MARCELINO | 5.0 | C | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip2026-05-07 BTP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 5/5; 2026-04-18 KEE 4f 50.60 B MT ft 67/84 · barn: change vs CAMEJO JOSE M | Clm12500 → Clm 12500 | LABRA ROGELIO | field |
| 2 | SAWYER FOXELLIOTT JANE | 6.0 | EP | 2nd off layoffSharp workSame trip2026-09-22 CD 4f 46.40 B MT ft bullet 1/13; 2026-09-14 CD 4f 48.20 B MT ft 8/17 · barn: same as last | Clm12500 → Clm 12500 | CATALANO WAYNE M | field |
| 9 | RAMBERTDE LA CRUZ FERNANDO | 8.0 | E | 2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip2026-08-29 IND 3f 39.00 B MT ft 4/4; 2026-08-19 IND 4f 49.40 B MT ft 11/52 · barn: same as last | Clm12500 → Clm 12500 | ELLIOTT MICHELLE L | field |
| 5 | DECATUR STREETRAMOS JOSEPH D | 15.0 | EP | Led lastTop last figSame trip2026-07-01 IND 4f 47.40 B MT ft 2/20; 2026-04-21 IND 4f 49.00 B MT ft 6/39 · barn: same as last | Clm5000b → Clm 12500 | CAZARES JOSE | field |
| 8 | SAINT IN THE CITYBESCHIZZA ADAM | 12.0 | E | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-08-31 CDT 4f 46.60 B MT ft bullet 1/8; 2026-07-31 CDT 4f 49.60 B MT ft 15/28 · barn: same as last | OC16000n1x → Clm 12500 | VAN BERG THOMAS L | field |
| 6 | POWERIZEDRODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO | 20.0 | E | 3rd start cycleClass dropLed lastSame trip2026-09-22 TP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 47/72; 2026-08-21 TP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 50/82 · barn: same as last | Alw17000b → Clm 12500 | LUCARELLI FRANK | primed |
| 10 | JR JIMMYBEALMEAR JOSEPH C | 20.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-04 IND 4f 52.60 B MT ft 39/40; 2026-05-15 IND 3f 38.80 B MT ft 11/17 · barn: same as last | Clm5000b → Clm 12500 | CAZARES JOSE | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEIND R6 · 2026-09-30 · Turf 1100y · Clm 12500
- SHAPEWall of early speed (#3 #9 #6 #5 #8 #2) → pace duel likely; closers and stalkers inherit; inside rail bias favors posts 1–3, punishes posts 8+
- CHALKFavorite#7 MAJOR WAGER · solid-but-short · rising figs, won last, same surface/trip, but post 7 in a 0% posts-8+ bias window and model edge near zero
- LEANWinner call#7 MAJOR WAGER · best form, right surface, pace sets up for closer — but chalk, not a play
- PRIMED#4 AMERICAN WIND (3rd-start cycle, class drop ALW→CLM12500, stalker path in A/B); #6 POWERIZED (3rd-start cycle, class drop, led last — but speed style into a wall, pace path works against it)
- PRICEnone (sheet rec PASS; no non-chalk overlay clears)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#4 AMERICAN WIND's turf record is 5.48% wins / -0.08 ROI across 73 starts; if the pace doesn't collapse the speed, a stalker without late kick gets nothing; off-turf scratch changes the race entirely
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/going condition, rider changes
Why
Turf sprint claiming at IND, wall of early speed into an inside-rail bias track, moderate-to-high volatility with six horses projected at or near the front. Chalk #7 MAJOR WAGER (3-1) is a closer on a rising cycle who won last out and fits the class level, but posts 8+ have zero wins in the 30-day sample and the model edge is essentially flat — solid favorite, not opposable, but not a price. #4 AMERICAN WIND is the only primed non-chalk with a stalker style that benefits in scenarios A and B when the speed wall empties, dropping from allowance into a $12,500 claimer on the third start of the cycle, though the barn's turf record is poor and the model shows a negative edge.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MAJOR WAGER | 3.0 | 19.9% | 20.3% | +0.3% | 0.02 | C | favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 3 | BUTCHS BEST | 5.0 | 13.3% | 14.9% | +1.6% | 0.42 | E | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 4 | AMERICAN WIND | 4.5 | 14.5% | 12.4% | -2.1% | -0.67 | S | 3rd start cycleClass dropSame trip | — |
| 1 | SPOKE | 5.0 | 13.3% | 11.8% | -1.5% | -0.52 | C | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 2 | SAWYER FOX | 6.0 | 11.4% | 10.5% | -0.9% | -0.36 | EP | 2nd off layoffSharp workSame trip | — |
| 9 | RAMBERT | 8.0 | 8.9% | 10.1% | +1.2% | 0.48 | E | 2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip | — |
| 5 | DECATUR STREET | 15.0 | 5.0% | 6.5% | +1.5% | 1.03 | EP | Led lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 8 | SAINT IN THE CITY | 12.0 | 6.1% | 5.7% | -0.4% | -0.31 | E | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 6 | POWERIZED | 20.0 | 3.8% | 4.2% | +0.4% | 0.38 | E | 3rd start cycleClass dropLed lastSame trip | — |
| 10 | JR JIMMY | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.4% | -0.4% | -0.48 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |