DED R8 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#9 #4 #1)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#9TOUCHUPONASTARE
- C2#4CUNIMBUSE
- C3#1DADDYS CODEEP
- C4#7SOUNDS LIKE POWERS
- C5#5MANGUMS
- C6#3CHADS FLASHY WAYSC
- C7#6TDZSHININLUCKYSTARC
- C8#8LEE STREETC
- C9#2SIPPIN ON GINC
Honest pace among #9 TOUCHUPONASTAR and #4 CUNIMBUS and #1 DADDYS CODE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #7 SOUNDS LIKE POWER, #5 MANGUM · hurts #9 TOUCHUPONASTAR, #4 CUNIMBUS, #1 DADDYS CODE
Pressure: #9 TOUCHUPONASTAR and #4 CUNIMBUS and #1 DADDYS CODE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #7 SOUNDS LIKE POWER, #5 MANGUM · hurts #9 TOUCHUPONASTAR, #4 CUNIMBUS, #1 DADDYS CODE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 SOUNDS LIKE POWER, #5 MANGUM, #3 CHADS FLASHY WAYS, #6 TDZSHININLUCKYSTAR, #8 LEE STREET, #2 SIPPIN ON GIN).
Helps #7 SOUNDS LIKE POWER, #5 MANGUM, #3 CHADS FLASHY WAYS, #6 TDZSHININLUCKYSTAR, #8 LEE STREET, #2 SIPPIN ON GIN · hurts #9 TOUCHUPONASTAR, #4 CUNIMBUS, #1 DADDYS CODE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | TOUCHUPONASTARTHORNTON T G | 0.6 | E | —2026-09-29 CCT 5f 63.00 B MT ft 3/10; 2026-09-22 CCT 5f 62.00 B MT ft bullet 1/7 · barn: same as last | SSxtnMle-G3 → GoldCupB100k | DELHOMME JEFF | Favorite |
| 5 | MANGUMHERNANDEZ HARRY | 6.0 | S | Rising figs3rd start cycleTop last figSame trip2026-08-18 CCT 5f 63.00 B MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-08-11 CCT 5f 63.40 B MT ft 3/6 · barn: same as last | sLaCupSpntB75k → GoldCupB100k | DELHOMME JEFF | primed |
| 7 | SOUNDS LIKE POWERCASTILLO ISAAC | 8.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-10-03 DED 4f 52.60 B MT ft 53/76; 2026-09-12 EVD 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/15 · barn: same as last | sLaCupSpntB75k → GoldCupB100k | LARROSA JUAN A | field |
| 2 | SIPPIN ON GINHERNANDEZ COLBY J | 8.0 | C | —2026-10-01 KEE 4f 49.60 B MT ft 29/38; 2026-09-24 ELP 5f 61.40 B MT ft 2/16 · barn: same as last | sEVDClsscB75k → GoldCupB100k | CALHOUN WILLIAM BRET | field |
| 1 | DADDYS CODERODRIGUEZ JOSE LUIS | 12.0 | EP | Same trip2026-09-25 DED 4f 51.40 B MT ft 17/24; 2026-02-13 FG 4f 50.20 B MT ft 55/82 · barn: same as last | sLAStallnB100k → GoldCupB100k | GOVEA CESAR | field |
| 3 | CHADS FLASHY WAYSBARRERA ELIO J | 15.0 | C | Same trip2026-10-03 DED 4f 53.00 B MT ft 62/76; 2026-09-26 DED 3f 39.00 B MT ft 18/34 · barn: same as last | OC30000b → GoldCupB100k | WARD RONNIE | field |
| 6 | TDZSHININLUCKYSTARROSIER C R | 15.0 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycleSharp workSame trip2026-09-26 DED 5f 63.20 B MT ft 1/3; 2026-08-20 DED 4f 49.20 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | OC30000b → GoldCupB100k | ESCHETE NASON | primed |
| 4 | CUNIMBUSHERNANDEZ JAVIER ANTONIO | 20.0 | E | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip2026-03-27 EVD 5f 64.60 B MT ft 9/13; 2025-12-06 DED 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/55 · barn: same as last | sAlw28000n1x → GoldCupB100k | RAMAEKERS ERIC | field |
| 8 | LEE STREETPEREZ CARLOS | 20.0 | C | Rising figsHidden paceSame trip2026-10-03 DED 4f 52.20 B MT ft 49/76; 2026-09-26 DED 3f 38.80 B MT ft 14/34 · barn: same as last | sOC30000b → GoldCupB100k | WARD RONNIE | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEDED R8 · 2026-10-10 · Dirt 1540y · GoldCupB100k $100k
- SHAPEWall of early speed (#9/#4/#1) sets honest-to-contested fractions; stalkers #5 and #7 have the live trips in A and B
- CHALKFavorite#9 TOUCHUPONASTAR · short (0.6 ML) · class best in field, sharp sprints record, but drops off a G3 into a pace duel it will have to earn — usable but short, not opposable on shape alone
- LEANWinner call#9 TOUCHUPONASTAR · top fig, top signal, top speed — best horse even in a duel
- PRIMED#5 MANGUM (rising figs 88→95, 3rd-start cycle, top field fig, same trip, direct stalking path in A/B); #6 TDZSHININLUCKYSTAR (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle, sharp work — but figures 20 pts below field, negative signal, deeply negative trainer stats in this class — flags present, path thin); #8 LEE STREET (rising figs 72→81, hidden pace LP 91 in a 5th — but class jump from OC30k to $100k stakes is steep, works ordinary, no price overlay)
- PRICEno price — model shows no non-chalk overlay; #5 MANGUM edge is 0.002 at 6-1 ML, not a live overlay
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#9 breaks flat, #4 or #1 hooks it early and the duel melts — chaos scenario hands it to a closer, but that is C-only and not a win ticket
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/surface condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint, $100k non-graded stakes at DED, nine runners — moderate-to-high volatility with a dominant chalk and a messy early pace. Three need-the-lead types (#9, #4, #1) set up an honest-to-contested pace that favors stalkers in scenarios A and B, and chalk #9 TOUCHUPONASTAR is a clear class-and-speed figure above the field but facing a duel it has not needed to survive lately. #5 MANGUM is the most credible primed price horse — third start of cycle, rising figs (88→95, top fig in the field), last win via a rail bid at 1320y stalking style, and a direct path sitting 4th-5th behind the speed wall today at the same trip.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | TOUCHUPONASTAR | 0.6 | 48.6% | 54.4% | +5.9% | 0.95 | E | favorite | — |
| 5 | MANGUM | 6.0 | 11.1% | 11.3% | +0.2% | 0.57 | S | Rising figs3rd start cycleTop last figSame trip | — |
| 7 | SOUNDS LIKE POWER | 8.0 | 8.6% | 8.7% | +0.1% | 0.54 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 2 | SIPPIN ON GIN | 8.0 | 8.6% | 6.6% | -2.1% | -0.60 | C | — | |
| 1 | DADDYS CODE | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.0% | -1.0% | -0.23 | EP | Same trip | — |
| 3 | CHADS FLASHY WAYS | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.1% | -0.7% | -0.17 | C | Same trip | — |
| 6 | TDZSHININLUCKYSTAR | 15.0 | 4.9% | 3.5% | -1.3% | -0.77 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycleSharp workSame trip | — |
| 4 | CUNIMBUS | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.4% | 0.04 | E | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 8 | LEE STREET | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.0% | -0.7% | -0.32 | C | Rising figsHidden paceSame trip | — |