LS R1 · 2026-10-10
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find LS R1 · 2026-10-10 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #2 BOGIE
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2BOGIEEP
- C2#6F DEEP
- C3#8FIRE A SIXTY SIXUU
- C4#3STONES THROWUU
- C5#4FRESNO 5UU
- C6#1GW WILLIE PORUNOUU
- C7#5MARFA REGIMES
- C8#7ASC JETTAZOOMC
#2 BOGIE controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #2 BOGIE · hurts #5 MARFA REGIME, #7 ASC JETTAZOOM
Someone presses #2 BOGIE. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #6 F DEE, #5 MARFA REGIME · hurts #2 BOGIE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 MARFA REGIME, #7 ASC JETTAZOOM).
Helps #5 MARFA REGIME, #7 ASC JETTAZOOM · hurts #2 BOGIE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FIRE A SIXTY SIXVILLATORO NOE | 3.0 | U | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-09-11 LS 3f 34.80 B MT ft 2/5; 2026-08-22 RET 3f 36.00 B MT ft 2/6 · barn: same as last | Alw15100n2l → Alw 16000n2l | GUZMAN ADAN | overlay |
| 3 | STONES THROWZUNIGA ALEJANDRO LANDEROS | 2.5 | U | Same trip2026-10-03 LS 1f 13.60 B MT sy 19/21; 2026-07-28 RET 1f 12.40 Bg MT ft 10/15 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Alw 16000n2l | BASHAM RYAN | Favorite |
| 6 | F DEEGILES FRANCISCO | 4.5 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-23 LS 1f 12.20 B MT ft 5/28; 2026-09-04 LS 1f 13.00 B MT ft 22/32 · barn: same as last | Alw15100n2l → Alw 16000n2l | BOLEN BRADLEY | field |
| 2 | BOGIECAMARILLO ORTEGA RIGOBERT | 4.0 | EP | Rising figsSame trip2026-04-02 HOU 3f 36.80 B MT ft 1/1; 2025-05-15 HOU 1f 11.80 Bg MT ft 6/16 · barn: same as last | Alw16000n2l → Alw 16000n2l | BASHAM RYAN | field |
| 4 | FRESNO 5ESQUEDA ERIK N | 6.0 | U | Trouble lastSharp workSame trip2026-10-02 WRD 3f 35.80 H MT gd 1/2; 2026-04-08 WBR 1f 11.20 B MT gd 10/46 · barn: same as last | Alw19200n2l → Alw 16000n2l | JONES ANTHONY G | field |
| 7 | ASC JETTAZOOMCONTRERAS DIEGO | 8.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-06-30 RET 3f 38.20 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-05-22 HOU 1f 12.40 B MT ft 17/23 · barn: same as last | Md7500 → Alw 16000n2l | CAMACHO JOSE DOLORES | field |
| 1 | GW WILLIE PORUNOVIVANCO LUIS L | 12.0 | U | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-13 RET 3f 36.80 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-03-25 RET 1f 12.60 B MT ft 12/30 · barn: same as last | Md5000 → Alw 16000n2l | VILLARREAL ALEX | field |
| 5 | MARFA REGIMEMENDEZ BENJAMIN JR | 20.0 | S | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip2026-10-04 WRD 1f 11.80 H MT ft 8/15; 2026-05-05 RP 3f 35.60 H MT ft 1/1 · barn: change vs MENDOZA SAMUEL | OC15000 → Alw 16000n2l | GONZALEZ MANUEL IV | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACELS R1 · 2026-10-10 · D / 870y / Alw 16000n2l
- SHAPELone-speed #2 BOGIE from post 2; inside bias; moderate pressure expected; closers need pace help
- CHALKFavorite#3 STONES THROW · short · maiden-to-allowance class hike, negative model edge, single PP, worst work (19/21 sloppy), bias post 3 is fine but form thin
- LEANWinner call#8 FIRE A SIXTY SIX · top fig in field (89), proven 870y dirt sprinter, model overlay — bias post hurts but pace + fig support
- PRIMEDnone (per brief)
- PRICE#8 FIRE A SIXTY SIX · edge 0.042 · ML 3-1
- PLAYPrice ticket#8 FIRE A SIXTY SIX · win · minimum 3-1 (pass if board dips below)
- KILLPost 8 outside draw on a hard inside-bias track; if #2 BOGIE clears to a lone lead unchallenged, closers likely stranded; trainer sprint ROI is positive but small sample
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition day-of, rider changes
Why
Dirt 870y sprint, Alw n2l, 8 horses — moderate volatility with an inside-rail bias strongly favoring posts 1-3 and a field where the chalk is stepping up from maiden company. Shape is lone-speed (#2 BOGIE projected to lead from post 2) into a moderate-pressure scenario, with the chalk (#3 STONES THROW, 2.5 ML) making its allowance debut off a single 870y maiden win and carrying a negative model edge. The only primed, non-chalk overlay is #8 FIRE A SIXTY SIX (3 ML): last fig 89 is the top figure in the field, rising 11 points from prior, proven in this exact trip (870y dirt sprint), and carries a model edge of 0.042 — however, post 8 is the worst draw on a track that has sent 6.7% of winners from that slot in 30 days, so the path requires either a pace duel that burns the inside speed or a fast-enough break to clear the kickback. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FIRE A SIXTY SIX | 3.0 | 19.3% | 23.5% | +4.2% | 0.86 | U | Rising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 3 | STONES THROW | 2.5 | 22.0% | 20.2% | -1.9% | -0.29 | U | favoriteSame trip | — |
| 6 | F DEE | 4.5 | 14.0% | 14.0% | -0.1% | 0.05 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 2 | BOGIE | 4.0 | 15.4% | 13.0% | -2.4% | -0.62 | EP | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 4 | FRESNO 5 | 6.0 | 11.0% | 10.3% | -0.7% | -0.19 | U | Trouble lastSharp workSame trip | — |
| 7 | ASC JETTAZOOM | 8.0 | 8.6% | 10.2% | +1.6% | 0.75 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 1 | GW WILLIE PORUNO | 12.0 | 5.9% | 5.4% | -0.5% | -0.30 | U | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 5 | MARFA REGIME | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.4% | -0.3% | -0.26 | S | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip | — |