SA R9 · 2026-10-09
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#5 #10 #4)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#5MUSICAL SONGEP
- C2#10JASMINEEP
- C3#2CAT THE CONFIDANTEC
- C4#4FROGEP
- C5#7SHINING RIVERS
- C6#3MISS DONNAP
- C7#8SPECIALTYC
- C8#1CHANNEL PLACES
- C9#9HEAVENLY BELLEC
- C10#6COYOTE CAFEC
Honest pace among #5 MUSICAL SONG and #10 JASMINE and #4 FROG. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #3 MISS DONNA, #7 SHINING RIVER, #1 CHANNEL PLACE · hurts #5 MUSICAL SONG, #10 JASMINE, #4 FROG
Pressure: #5 MUSICAL SONG and #10 JASMINE and #4 FROG hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #3 MISS DONNA, #7 SHINING RIVER, #1 CHANNEL PLACE · hurts #5 MUSICAL SONG, #10 JASMINE, #4 FROG
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 CAT THE CONFIDANTE, #7 SHINING RIVER, #8 SPECIALTY, #1 CHANNEL PLACE, #9 HEAVENLY BELLE, #6 COYOTE CAFE).
Helps #2 CAT THE CONFIDANTE, #7 SHINING RIVER, #8 SPECIALTY, #1 CHANNEL PLACE, #9 HEAVENLY BELLE, #6 COYOTE CAFE · hurts #5 MUSICAL SONG, #10 JASMINE, #4 FROG
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CAT THE CONFIDANTEROSARIO JOEL | 1.2 | C | 3rd start cycleTop last paceSame trip2026-10-04 SA 4f 50.00 H MT ft 71/82; 2026-09-27 SA 5f 61.40 H MT ft 37/70 · barn: same as last | fOC50000 → OClm 50000 | SADLER JOHN W | Favorite |
| 10 | JASMINEAYUSO ARMANDO | 2.5 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-09-28 SA 4f 47.80 H MT ft 13/54; 2026-09-21 SA 4f 48.20 H MT ft 13/73 · barn: same as last | fMd62500 → OClm 50000 | EURTON PETER | Favorite |
| 4 | FROGHERNANDEZ JUAN J | 4.5 | EP | Rising figs2nd off layoffLed last2026-10-01 SLR 4f 49.00 H MT ft 6/9; 2026-09-24 SLR 4f 49.00 H MT ft 2/10 · barn: same as last | fOC50000 → OClm 50000 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL W | primed |
| 7 | SHINING RIVERLEPAROUX JULIEN R | 6.0 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-26 SA 4f 49.20 H MT ft 48/74; 2026-09-14 SA 4f 50.20 H MT ft 67/79 · barn: same as last | fOC50000 → OClm 50000 | HESS R B JR | field |
| 8 | SPECIALTYGONZALEZ RICARDO | 8.0 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-10-02 SA 4f 48.00 H MT ft 3/7; 2026-09-25 SA 4f 48.60 H MT ft 7/13 · barn: same as last | fOC50000 → OClm 50000 | GALLAGHER PATRICK | field |
| 1 | CHANNEL PLACEKIMURA KAZUSHI | 8.0 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-10-01 SA 4f 49.80 H MT ft 27/37; 2026-09-20 SA 3f 36.00 H MT ft 2/15 · barn: same as last | fTrryPine-G3 → OClm 50000 | O'NEILL DOUG | field |
| 9 | HEAVENLY BELLEVAN DYKE DRAYDEN | 10.0 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-25 SA 5f 61.60 H MT ft 37/49; 2026-09-17 SA 4f 48.40 H MT ft 9/34 · barn: same as last | fOC50000 → OClm 50000 | BALTAS RICHARD | field |
| 3 | MISS DONNAJARAMILLO E | 12.0 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-10-01 SLR 4f 49.00 H MT ft 6/9; 2026-09-24 SLR 4f 48.40 H MT ft bullet 1/10 · barn: same as last | fOC80000n1x → OClm 50000 | MCCARTHY MICHAEL W | primed |
| 6 | COYOTE CAFELEZCANO ABEL | 15.0 | C | Same trip2026-10-03 SA 5f 61.20 H MT ft 22/71; 2026-09-26 SA 5f 62.20 H MT ft 60/73 · barn: same as last | fsMdSpWt → OClm 50000 | GLATT MARK | field |
| 5 | MUSICAL SONGESCOBEDO ADRIAN | 20.0 | EP | Sharp work2026-10-04 SA 6f 72.80 H MT ft 1/1; 2026-09-20 SA 5f 61.00 H MT ft 22/75 · barn: same as last | fOC50000 → OClm 50000 | GOMEZ RUBEN | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACESA R9 · 2026-10-09 · Turf 1760y · OClm 50000
- SHAPEWall of EP speed (#5 #10 #4) → honest/pressure pace → stalkers and closers favored in A and B
- CHALKFavorite#2 CAT THE CONFIDANTE 1.2 · solid on merit, top LP, 3rd-cycle ready · automatic pass at the price
- LEANWinner call#2 CAT THE CONFIDANTE · best model, best late pace, pace shape suits her if the duel materializes
- PRIMED#4 FROG (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, led last — but 2nd-off-layoff McCarthy pattern is flat ROI on turf and FROG's LP faded last sprint); #3 MISS DONNA (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, two bullets — figures thin, faded wide in return)
- PRICEno price — no non-chalk overlay clears the model; sheet rec is PASS
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLSpeed holds, pace is slower than projected, or #10 JASMINE (top fig 89, led last at 2.5) steals a soft lead and wire-to-wires at short odds
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, going condition (firm vs soft), weather/off-turf risk
Why
Turf route at SA, OClm 50000, field of 10 — moderate-to-high volatility with three EP types likely to press each other into an honest or pressure pace that sets up the mid-pack and stalking runners. Wall of early speed (#5, #10, #4) projects a duel or meltdown shape; chalk #2 CAT THE CONFIDANTE (1.2 ML) sits as a deep closer with a strong late-pace figure and the best model number, but at 1.2 she is a research LEAN only — nowhere near a ticket. #3 MISS DONNA is primed (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, two bullets at SLR) and stalks the pace at post 3 with a direct A/B path, though her top fig (76) is thin relative to the field and her fading last effort pressing wide at OC80000 asks for a leap of faith at 12-1. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CAT THE CONFIDANTE | 1.2 | 29.0% | 32.4% | +3.4% | 0.86 | C | favorite3rd start cycleTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 10 | JASMINE | 2.5 | 18.3% | 19.9% | +1.7% | 0.76 | EP | favoriteRising figs3rd start cycleLed lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 4 | FROG | 4.5 | 11.6% | 11.7% | +0.1% | 0.44 | EP | Rising figs2nd off layoffLed last | — |
| 7 | SHINING RIVER | 6.0 | 9.1% | 8.7% | -0.4% | 0.22 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 8 | SPECIALTY | 8.0 | 7.1% | 7.1% | -0.0% | 0.39 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 1 | CHANNEL PLACE | 8.0 | 7.1% | 5.8% | -1.3% | -0.39 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 9 | HEAVENLY BELLE | 10.0 | 5.8% | 5.6% | -0.2% | 0.28 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 3 | MISS DONNA | 12.0 | 4.9% | 3.8% | -1.1% | -0.60 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 6 | COYOTE CAFE | 15.0 | 4.0% | 2.7% | -1.3% | -1.18 | C | Same trip | — |
| 5 | MUSICAL SONG | 20.0 | 3.0% | 2.3% | -0.8% | -0.78 | EP | Sharp work | — |