closebeat
Start free
← RaceDay

FE R4 · 2026-10-06

PASSD1320yPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races
Bet now

Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FE R4 · 2026-10-06 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Sign in to run

Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#5 vs #3)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#5TIERNANE
  2. C2#3TRULY MISCHIEFEP
  3. C3#1TODO FINOP
  4. C4#4ALWAYS A WAYP
  5. C5#2PAPERBACK HEROS
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #5 TIERNAN and #3 TRULY MISCHIEF. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #1 TODO FINO, #4 ALWAYS A WAY, #2 PAPERBACK HERO · hurts #5 TIERNAN, #3 TRULY MISCHIEF

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #5 TIERNAN and #3 TRULY MISCHIEF hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #1 TODO FINO, #4 ALWAYS A WAY, #2 PAPERBACK HERO · hurts #5 TIERNAN, #3 TRULY MISCHIEF

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 PAPERBACK HERO).

Helps #2 PAPERBACK HERO · hurts #5 TIERNAN, #3 TRULY MISCHIEF

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
5TIERNANALDERSON JEFFREY IAN2.0ERising figs2nd off layoffLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-09-06 FE 4f 50.00 B MT ft 4/10; 2026-08-11 FE 4f 51.20 B MT gd 6/6 · barn: same as lastClm10000n3l → OClm 12500ALDERSON ANTHONY JFavorite
1TODO FINOJADOO STEVE1.6PSame trip2026-08-04 MNR 4f 51.40 B MT ft 12/12; 2026-07-15 MNR 4f 48.00 Bg MT ft 2/14 · barn: same as lastOC7500 → OClm 12500ROBILLARD ALYSHAFavorite
3TRULY MISCHIEFMAILHOT P3.5EP2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip2026-09-11 FE 4f 50.40 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-08-14 FE 4f 48.20 B MT ft 2/6 · barn: same as lastOC10000 → OClm 12500RABSTEIN CLAUDIA Sfield
4ALWAYS A WAYGASKIN DA-SEAN ZAVIER5.0PSame trip2026-08-28 FE 4f 50.80 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-06-02 FE 3f 37.00 B MT ft 3/8 · barn: same as lastOC10000 → OClm 12500HUMBER JOSEPHfield
2PAPERBACK HERODAVID MICHAEL8.0S2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-06 FE 3f 36.40 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-05-26 FE 4f 52.00 B MT ft 20/20 · barn: same as lastClm5000n2y → OClm 12500AGOSTINO ROY GEORGEfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed
  1. RACEFE R4 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 1320y OClm 12500
  2. SHAPETwo-speed duel (#5 vs #3) on a speed/inside-bias track; pressers and stalkers inherit if the duel is honest
  3. CHALKFavorite#5 TIERNAN (ML 2) — opposable; speed-on-speed duel from post 5 with a class rise (Clm10000 → OClm12500), and the bias favors inside posts; rising figs are real but the duel threat is equally real
  4. LEANWinner call#1 TODO FINO — best dirt fig at this distance (87/88), post 1 inside-rail advantage, sits stalking as the duel unfolds in A and B scenarios
  5. PRIMEDnone
  6. PRICEno non-chalk overlay (sheet rec PASS)
  7. PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #1 TODO FINO is also chalk (ML 1.6); no non-chalk horse clears the overlay bar; sheet rec confirms PASS
  8. KILL#5 TIERNAN clears cleanly without a duel and wires them; live tote shortens #1 below fair value
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint OC claimer at FE, five horses, moderate-to-high volatility given a two-speed duel setup and a bias that heavily favors early speed from inside posts.

Shape is a contested pace with #5 TIERNAN (E, post 5) and #3 TRULY MISCHIEF (EP, post 3) likely hooking from the gate, which should set up the pressers and stalkers behind them — #5 is the clear chalk with the top fig (86) and a model overlay, but it carries the most collapse risk if the duel is honest; #1 TODO FINO (the co-chalk at 1.6) owns the advantaged post 1, the best speed figure in the field (87 on dirt at this distance), and gets a clean stalking trip if the speed duels.

No horse reaches the two-flag primed threshold among the non-chalk entries; #2 PAPERBACK HERO has 2nd-off-layoff but is stepping up sharply in class from Clm5000n2y and shows a negative signal (-1.08) with figs well below the field.

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Sign in to stamp the board

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Sign in to stamp a board print

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
5TIERNAN2.027.4%32.0%+4.6%0.88EfavoriteRising figs2nd off layoffLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip—
1TODO FINO1.631.6%31.6%-0.0%0.26PfavoriteSame trip—
3TRULY MISCHIEF3.518.2%17.8%-0.4%0.16EP2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip—
4ALWAYS A WAY5.013.7%12.2%-1.5%-0.21PSame trip—
2PAPERBACK HERO8.09.1%6.5%-2.6%-1.08S2nd off layoffSame trip—