TDN R3 · 2026-10-07
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find TDN R3 · 2026-10-07 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #8 BACCHANAL
Pressure low. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#8BACCHANALEP
- C2#2SLINGSHOTUU
- C3#3KISS FROM MOMUU
- C4#7WHISKEY RIVER RUNUU
- C5#1PLAY SOME STRAITUU
- C6#6CAPITAL TUU
- C7#5LIZZYS BOYUU
- C8#4FLINT N STEELC
#8 BACCHANAL controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #8 BACCHANAL · hurts #4 FLINT N STEEL
Someone presses #8 BACCHANAL. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #4 FLINT N STEEL · hurts #8 BACCHANAL
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 FLINT N STEEL).
Helps #4 FLINT N STEEL · hurts #8 BACCHANAL
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | KISS FROM MOMBATISTA LUIS ALBERTO | 1.6 | U | Sharp workTop last figSame trip2026-09-29 TDN 5f 61.60 Bg MT ft 1/1; 2026-09-09 TDN 5f 61.00 B MT ft bullet 1/5 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | DACOSTA JASON | Favorite |
| 2 | SLINGSHOTFERNANDEZ VICTOR R | 3.5 | U | Same trip2026-09-09 TDN 4f 49.20 Bg MT ft 9/24; 2026-09-02 TDN 4f 52.40 Bg MT ft 16/19 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | RADOSEVICH JUSTIN | field |
| 7 | WHISKEY RIVER RUNBRACHO JOSE A | 3.0 | U | —2026-10-01 TP 4f 49.20 B MT ft 6/18; 2026-09-23 TP 5f 63.60 Bg MT ft 18/21 · barn: ANDERSON SUSAN L (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | ANDERSON SUSAN L | field |
| 1 | PLAY SOME STRAITSKERRETT JEFFERSON | 6.0 | U | —2026-09-26 TDN 4f 49.60 B MT ft 15/33; 2026-09-17 TDN 4f 51.20 Bg MT ft 16/18 · barn: RADOSEVICH JUSTIN (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | RADOSEVICH JUSTIN | field |
| 6 | CAPITAL TBARBARAN ERIK | 8.0 | U | —2026-09-26 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT ft 25/33; 2026-09-15 TDN 3f 37.80 Bg MT ft 2/10 · barn: GORHAM ROBERT M (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | GORHAM ROBERT M | field |
| 8 | BACCHANALRIVERA L R | 15.0 | EP | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip2026-08-01 TDN 4f 52.20 B MT ft 11/14; 2026-07-23 TDN 4f 51.80 Bg MT ft 22/28 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | RADOSEVICH JEFF | field |
| 4 | FLINT N STEELHALDAR DAVID J | 20.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-04 TDN 4f 52.00 Bg MT ft 7/8; 2026-07-20 TDN 4f 54.80 B MT ft 28/28 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | FAULKNER RODNEY C | field |
| 5 | LIZZYS BOYHALDAR HUMBERTO | 20.0 | U | Trouble lastSharp workSame trip2026-09-26 BTP 3f 35.20 Bg MT ft bullet 1/12; 2026-09-11 BTP 5f 64.00 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | FERNANDEZ EDWARD | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACETDN R3 · 2026-10-07 · Dirt sprint (1320y) · Md Sp Wt · field 8
- SHAPELone speed (#8 BACCHANAL) with low pressure; inside rail and speed bias strongly favor the chalk stalking from post 3
- CHALKFavorite#3 KISS FROM MOM · solid · top fig, sharp works at the track, inside post on a rail-bias strip, 2nd career start cycle, DaCosta barn firing
- LEANWinner call#3 KISS FROM MOM
- PRIMEDnone (non-chalk)
- PRICEno price — no non-chalk overlays; all edge values negative or trivially positive only on the favorite
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#8 BACCHANAL clears wire-to-wire on soft honest fractions before the chalk finds stride; first-timers (#7, #1, #6) show unexpected early speed and complicate the shape
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant, rider changes not in PPs
Why
Dirt sprint maiden at TDN shapes as a lone-speed/chalk race with moderate-to-high volatility given a large maiden field full of unknowns and first-timers. #3 KISS FROM MOM is the clear chalk on the pace map — she draws inside (post 3), holds the top BRIS fig, owns multiple bullets at TDN, and the bias stats heavily favor inside posts and early speed; #8 BACCHANAL projects lone speed from post 8 but has stopped in all three starts and figures to be passed. No horse in the field carries two or more primed flags without also being chalk — the brief confirms PRIMED: none among non-chalk horses.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | KISS FROM MOM | 1.6 | 30.3% | 35.5% | +5.2% | 1.07 | U | favoriteSharp workTop last figSame trip | — |
| 2 | SLINGSHOT | 3.5 | 17.5% | 19.3% | +1.8% | 0.83 | U | Same trip | — |
| 7 | WHISKEY RIVER RUN | 3.0 | 19.7% | 17.7% | -2.0% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 1 | PLAY SOME STRAIT | 6.0 | 11.3% | 10.1% | -1.2% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 6 | CAPITAL T | 8.0 | 8.8% | 7.8% | -0.9% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 8 | BACCHANAL | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.0% | -0.9% | -0.35 | EP | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 4 | FLINT N STEEL | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.0% | -0.8% | -0.48 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 5 | LIZZYS BOY | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.6% | -1.2% | -1.06 | U | Trouble lastSharp workSame trip | — |